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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

Yup

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe
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Guest CulverJosh

What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe

Very little IMO. Means a lot more for the South Pacific and points south. Means a whole heck of a lot to Australia.

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EUG up to 61. Beautiful crisp early fall day.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe

It’s an interesting thought experiment. Typically it’s a secondary boundary condition that only affects North America depending on what more dominant drivers are doing. It tends to be associated with -NAOs during the winter, all else being equal.

 

However, a prolific +IOD that *is* the most dominant low/medium frequency mode present in the tropics will, by default, affect the wavetrain across Eurasia/NATL/NPAC via the stunting of IPWP/MC exhaust and possibly effects on the Eurasian wavetrain/Siberian High.

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It’s an interesting thought experiment. Typically it’s a secondary boundary condition that only affects North America depending on what more dominant drivers are doing. It tends to be associated with -NAOs during the winter, all else being equal.

 

However, a prolific +IOD that *is* the most dominant low/medium frequency mode present in the tropics will, by default, affect the wavetrain across Eurasia/NATL/NPAC via the stunting of IPWP/MC exhaust and possibly effects on the Eurasian wavetrain/Siberian High.

So it's an experiment, which means nothing currently.

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Is that what your NPI? Index was based on?

 

I have one index called the NPS and the other is the EO.  The one I was referring to was the NPS (North Pacific surface pressure).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 18z is really going the right way with next week's trough once again.  The runs that avoid merging the cutoff low to our SW and the cold trough digging down from the NW end up really good.  That trough could be close to as cold as the recent one if it plays out right.  It appears it will be more of an open trough instead of a closed low though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looking like another cold one tonight.  We should have some great color on the trees by mid month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The MJO appears to be stuck in octant one for the next couple of weeks so no real reason to expect much change before mid month.  Obviously MJO 1 at this point in the season with this background state is working for us!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Driving home today saw Rainier in the beautiful virgin white snow as well!!!

 

High today 63*

Currently 60*

Not many times I've headed out fishing for fall salmon and seen snow capped peaks. Usually leads to tougher fishing because the fish are able to spread out. But I'm ok with it.

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53 at the moment in Tacoma, should get down into the upper 30s tonight but I’m doubtful we see frost again. Still upper 30s is quite cold for this early in the year.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Guest daniel1

The MJO appears to be stuck in octant one for the next couple of weeks so no real reason to expect much change before mid month. Obviously MJO 1 at this point in the season with this background state is working for us!

Would be much much different come DJF which is why you should be careful what you wish for.
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Looking like a dud for the east coast in general. They will have occasional chances as they always do, but it is Rockies west this year.

 

I'm curious to know why. Are there meteorological implications, and could you explain them to someone (me) who isn't so well-versed in weather-lingo?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

I was discussing this with my mother today, fascinating stuff.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I’m still trying to figure out the WHAM!

 

Wake me up, before you go go?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Cooling off pretty quickly again this evening. Down to 41 already. 57/32 today.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Snowfall, Seattle: 32.8", Portland: 0.4"

Lowest high temp, Seattle: 36, Portland: 18

Lowest low temp, Seattle: 19, Portland: 4

 

Can you imagine. lol

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I want Seattle/Portland winter predictions.

 

Snowfall: Seattle 1.1” Portland 52.4”

Lowest High temp: Seattle 36.2. Portland 21.8

Lowest low temp: Seattle 29.0. Portland 14.9

 

Number of foreign-driven Prius cars with chains on the rear tires: 721

My predictions.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Just another excuse to keep throwing around acronyms that maybe 5 people understand.

You’re just a dumba**. Not my problem to worry about.

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The MJO appears to be stuck in octant one for the next couple of weeks so no real reason to expect much change before mid month. Obviously MJO 1 at this point in the season with this background state is working for us!

I’d argue the MJO is moving, but the low frequency circulation associated with the +IOD is messing with the unfiltered phase diagrams, hence the phase-1 recycle there (or illusion of it).

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