October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

The more Phil’s the better if you ask me.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I have a pheeling we won’t be enjoying Phil’s phorecast.

[Guest CulverJosh]

First day to see Mt. Hood with a fresh coat of white this fall. She sure got a pretty mouth.

[Omegaraptor]

I have a pheeling we won’t be enjoying Phil’s phorecast.

 

Thanks to The BLOB™ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions™, this "winter" is expected to make 2014-15 look like 1949-50 in comparison. The December average high will be 57ºF at PDX, and that's just the coldest month. All precipitation will be warm front drizzle with freezing levels consistently above 8000'. Skiing won't be a thing this "winter", but The BLOB™ will bring record warm water to the West Coast so surfing will be an excellent option. I also wager that the GFS will show multiple big arctic events starting at 384 hours that will magically disappear upon reaching 240 hours out.

 

By the way, the Midwest and Northeast will experience a record cold polar winter as well, because of course they will.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Phil's forecast will be as accurate as the Farmer's Almanac.

[Deweydog]

It’s 2 cold 2 snow.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I'm with Phil on this, even without reading whatever he is cooking up. Tim will love it too.

 

October will be the only below normal month. November through March will torch, with plenty of warm dry days. At best, expect maybe a trace of snow fall for points north of Bellingham. Now for those of you who are questioning my logic here, understand that there is a secret component to the ENSO known as the Mid Atlantic Weenie index which shows that this will be the year where DC is buried with 11 feet of snow and it will be too cold and dry in Boston or New York for those a******* to get a flurry.

DC had an amazing NorEaster when I worked there in the winter of 99/00. I was a younger partier then but I remember it being un-forecast and at least over 20 inches.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Eagerly awaiting tonight's overrunning event.

[MossMan]

Eagerly awaiting tonight's overrunning event.

Hopefully the switchover is slower than what the GFS is showing.

[ShawniganLake]

Eagerly awaiting tonight's overrunning event.

49F with some light rain flurries here

[Phil]

I'm with Phil on this, even without reading whatever he is cooking up. Tim will love it too.

 

October will be the only below normal month. November through March will torch, with plenty of warm dry days. At best, expect maybe a trace of snow fall for points north of Bellingham. Now for those of you who are questioning my logic here, understand that there is a secret component to the ENSO known as the Mid Atlantic Weenie index which shows that this will be the year where DC is buried with 11 feet of snow and it will be too cold and dry in Boston or New York for those a******* to get a flurry.

[Phil]

Still waiting on the winter forecast Phil. You said a few hours back around 9am our time. Your time? Hmmmm

Been working on topology HW for over 8hrs. Didn’t think it would take this long.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs still looking good for a shot of cool air early next week.

[GHweatherChris]

Been working on topology HW for over 8hrs. Didn’t think it would take this long.

I have been working on my dadology homework for 14 years, so...

[jakeinthevalley]

I clipped my fingernails today. I distinctly remember doing that in October 2008.

Funny, I always pictured you as a nail biter?

[Front Ranger]

Philosophy.

[TacomaWaWx]

Interesting pattern in the long range on the gfs. Shows a fairly wet system late next week hitting BC and WA after a mid week dry out.This has been shown on the last 3 runs.

[Deweydog]

Funny, I always pictured you as a nail biter?

Ugh. I’m the diametric opposite. I can’t stand watching someone do there’s a good chance they’re one of the 40% of people that don’t wash their hands after going to the loo.

[Phil]

DC had an amazing NorEaster when I worked there in the winter of 99/00. I was a younger partier then but I remember it being un-forecast and at least over 20 inches.

I have a vague recollection of that one. School let out early, then the bus got stuck in the neighborhood so we had to walk the rest of the way home through unplowed streets in thigh-deep snow (we were elementary school kids at the time, so it’s all relative).

 

A very productive La Niña stretch, all things considered.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F in Springfield to close out the day. Some rain at times.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I have a vague recollection of that one. School let out early, then the bus got stuck in the neighborhood so we had to walk the rest of the way home through unplowed streets in thigh-deep snow (we were elementary school kids at the time, so it’s all relative).

 

A very productive La Niña stretch, all things considered.

From what I remember that really was the only significant event where I was that year (Herndon, VA), about 2 miles from Dulles airport. Contrary to what was happening in Die Hard 2, it isnt a very snowy place overall.

[Tyler Mode]

I don't normally take a 2.5+ hour drive to get to a day hike and then come right back home, but Monday I couldn't resist with the fresh snow and clear blue skies!
 

It was very much like winter in some areas, but others were like fall.  It made for some awesome hiking and pictures!

[Phil]

From what I remember that really was the only significant event where I was that year (Herndon, VA), about 2 miles from Dulles airport. Contrary to what was happening in Die Hard 2, it isnt a very snowy place overall.

That’s because it’s not a snowy place, lol.

 

We average ~ 20”/yr here, ~ 15”/yr in DC itself. And the mean is skewed higher by a few large nor’easters. The median is lower, more like 15”/yr here & 12”/yr in DC.

 

Often times we’ll go 2-3 years with 10” or less, then have a big year with 35-45”. So it feels even worse.

[TacomaWaWx]

51 and mostly cloudy this morning. Ground was damp this morning but no Measurable precip. Hoping for some thunderstorms possibly this afternoon.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The more Phil’s the better if you ask me.

Philip, Philippe and now Phil!

[TacomaWaWx]

I think there’s a pretty good chance some of us will see some storms today. Really good echoes offshore moving NE into SW WA. Sun has come out as well adding some instability.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs long range showing a big storm hitting SE AK and the tail end of it hitting BC and WA.

[Omegaraptor]

Gfs long range showing a big storm hitting SE AK and the tail end of it hitting BC and WA.

That is a very deep low.

 

Now if only it could trend about 500 miles south.

[TacomaWaWx]

That is a very deep low.

 

Now if only it could trend about 500 miles south.

Yeah 962 millibars pretty strong storm. I get the feeling there’s going to be a big windstorm this fall or winter so maybe we will see something like this come closer to WA/OR.

[Phil]

No hints of the Greenland/Baffin Island vortex returning since the SSW last winter. Is it really gone this time?

 

Feels too good to be true after watching it sit there for over half a decade, keeping all of the best cold bottled up in NE-Canada 90% of the time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 66.33" for the 2018-19 water year. About 10" below normal. 

 

Better than the abysmal 59.83" in 2017-18. 

[MossMan]

Yeah 962 millibars pretty strong storm. I get the feeling there’s going to be a big windstorm this fall or winter so maybe we will see something like this come closer to WA/OR.

Perhaps on Columbus Day.

[Omegaraptor]

Ended up with 66.33" for the 2018-19 water year. About 10" below normal. 

 

Better than the abysmal 59.83" in 2017-18.

 

Hillsboro ended up with a rather pathetic 29.22”.

 

Foothills >>>>>>>>> lowlands.

[TacomaWaWx]

Perhaps on Columbus Day.

both sets of my grandparents very distinctly remember that one in 62.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39.31” for Eugene/Springfield. Better than 31.05” in 17-18.

[TT-SEA]

Its been a horrifying severe drought year up here.

 

SEA ended up an incredible 1.67 inches below normal for the water year.   Its hard to even imagine being 1.67 inches below normal for a 12-month period.

 

Making up that deficit could take years... maybe decades.    

[Omegaraptor]

39.31” for Eugene/Springfield. Better than 31.05” in 17-18.

Yeah April 2019 was pretty epic down there. 7.5” of rain fell in Eugene, but only 3” in Portland. As we saw throughout all of last year’s wet season, nature likes to specifically avoid Portland when distributing rainfall throughout the west coast.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah April 2019 was pretty epic down there. 7.5” of rain fell in Eugene, but only 3” in Portland. As we saw throughout all of last year’s wet season, nature likes to specifically avoid Portland when distributing rainfall throughout the west coast.

Pretty sure EUG usually averages more rain than PDX.

[TT-SEA]

More sun than I was expecting today.

But I am sure it will find a way to be pouring rain during the Seahawks game this evening.

[TacomaWaWx]

More sun than I wss expecting today.

nice morning! Should be nice for a couple more hours too it looks like.