October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

Frosty 29 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Baeautiful morning... looks like it bottomed out in the mid 30s at the stations around here.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 30 this morning.  This week is going to have an incredible average min for a number of locations.  I'm going ot be very interested to see how the details work out for the intrusion of cold / very dry air in a couple of days.  Some places could pull off some crazy minus departures on a couple of days.

[TacomaWaWx]

Dropped to 30 this morning. This week is going to have an incredible average min for a number of locations. I'm going ot be very interested to see how the details work out for the intrusion on of cold / very dry air in a couple of days. Some places could pull off some crazy minus departures on a couple of days.

Dropped down to 36 here was a little frosty. One thing to watch will be the offshore winds kicking up near the foothills. Should be some cold frosty mornings for the next several days.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Not looking forward to a couple of these mornings.

[snow_wizard]

Not looking forward to a couple of these mornings.

 

Better get used to it.  That's what you signed up for!

[MossMan]

Low of 32. Currently 34.

[Requiem]

NWS Portland is mentioning a strong downslope wind on Tuesday (30-40 gusts in spots). My area does well with them, so I’m pretty excited!

[snow_wizard]

Dropped down to 36 here was a little frosty. One thing to watch will be the offshore winds kicking up near the foothills. Should be some cold frosty mornings for the next several days.

 

The wind is the big question mark for parts of the East Puget Sound Lowlands.  The NWS forecast actually forecasts a freezing wind Monday night, but I'll have to see it to believe it.  Could happen though, as the Arctic surface high blasts through Eastern WA.  Little doubt east winds will be cold on Tuesday keeping the ESPL colder than  a lot of places.  If Tuesday night is able to settle down the low temps could be quite impressive.  I'm betting on calm Wednesday night.  In spite of the fact the mid levels will be much warmer by then the low level dry air should assure a lot of places dropping into the mid 20s with some low 20s possible.  The WRF has been advertising an inversion later in the week, and that model has an anti inversion bias.  In short...a cold week.

[HighlandExperience]

Not looking forward to a couple of these mornings.

At least you are now guaranteed snow every season.

[snow_wizard]

NWS Portland is mentioning a strong downslope wind on Tuesday (30-40 gusts in spots). My area does well with them, so I’m pretty excited!

 

They are probably right.  It going to be interesting to see how cold places are to the E and NE as we get into late Monday and Monday evening.  That will give some hint to how cold outflow will be.  At this point the ECMWF and EPS ensemble is running a fair bit colder than the GFS operational runs so we should verify with 850s on the order of 8 to 10 degrees below normal.  We'll see if the ECMWF sticks to it's guns on the 12z.

[snow_wizard]

Low of 32. Currently 34.

 

Pretty rare I end up colder than you.  Might be the north wind gradient we had last night keeping things a bit stirred up in your area.  I was pleasantly surprised with the 30 here.

[Phil]

Not looking forward to a couple of these mornings.

Wanna trade? That looks like unadulterated diurnal cycle pornography compared to the 76/74 in DC right now.

 

Taking forever for that cold air DOME to beat down the Bermuda High.

[TacomaWaWx]

The wind is the big question mark for parts of the East Puget Sound Lowlands. The NWS forecast actually forecasts a freezing wind Monday night, but I'll have to see it to believe it. Could happen though, as the Arctic surface high blasts through Eastern WA. Little doubt east winds will be cold on Tuesday keeping the ESPL colder than a lot of places. If Tuesday night is able to settle down the low temps could be quite impressive. I'm betting on calm Wednesday night. In spite of the fact the mid levels will be much warmer by then the low level dry air should assure a lot of places dropping into the mid 20s with some low 20s possible. The WRF has been advertising an inversion later in the week, and that model has an anti inversion bias. In short...a cold week.

I think at least a couple nights will be calm. Was a decent north breeze here last night until about midnight. Tuesday maybe not though looks like some decent outflow winds moving through the cascade gaps. Either way yes it’s gonna be cold it’s just hard to say how cold in certain areas at this time depending on the outflow winds.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Wanna trade? That looks like unadulterated diurnal cycle pornography compared to the 76/74 in DC right now.

 

Taking forever for that cold air DOME to beat down the Bermuda High.

At least its dry here. Seems every east coast game today is wet.

[TacomaWaWx]

12z gfs still showing a clipper moving down into our area on day 10. 06z showed the same thing earlier.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Better get used to it. That's what you signed up for!

Honestly, I can deal with the cold. I hate when it is too hot. Much easier to just add another layer, can only take so many off. The climate here will suit me just fine.

[TT-SEA]

12z gfs still showing a clipper moving down into our area on day 10. 06z showed the same thing earlier.

It just reinforces the ridge again.

[TacomaWaWx]

It just reinforces the ridge again.

Yeah looks like it. Going to be chilly sunny days coming up for awhile if it verifies.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is trending colder again with the Tuesday cold snap.  The 540 thickness line ends up well W of Seattle.  If we do get a freezing east wind it will be the earliest I have ever seen that.  Almost like the cold wind that hit in March which was the latest I had ever seen.

[TacomaWaWx]

The GEM is trending colder again with the Tuesday cold snap. The 540 thickness line ends up well W of Seattle. If we do get a freezing east wind it will be the earliest I have ever seen that. Almost like the cold wind that hit in March which was the latest I had ever seen.

We had a couple strong outflow wind events late last winter one on the morning of 2/26 where there was 45-50mph NE gusts in Tacoma. Late February and early March this year were pretty interesting.

[snow_wizard]

12z gfs still showing a clipper moving down into our area on day 10. 06z showed the same thing earlier.

 

That is a really fascinating evolution.  You have two pieces of high pressure coming together which presents a huge challenge for the models.  Still a chance for that to be a big deal.  In that time frame we are only talking a few days earlier than the November 1955 event.

[snow_wizard]

We had a couple strong outflow wind events late last winter one on the morning of 2/26 where there was 45-50mph NE gusts in Tacoma. Late February and early March this year were pretty interesting.

 

The early March one was mind blowing here.  It was below freezing at 4 in the afternoon with strong winds blowing.  It was face numbing cold.

[TacomaWaWx]

That is a really fascinating evolution. You have two pieces of high pressure coming together which presents a huge challenge for the models. Still a chance for that to be a big deal. In that time frame we are only talking a few days earlier than the November 1955 event.

really hard to say, even this clipper it was only a couple days ago that it looked impressive. Models seem to keep promising cold backing off and then amping it up at the last minute. Same with the clippers about a month ago now. Will have to see if the GEM and EURO bite on it too.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to make a guess for PDX on Tuesday.

 

Daytime high = 38 (will be interesting to see if the midnight temp is below 40 or not)

 

Low = 30 (with wind)

 

Winds gusting to 45 - 50

 

I could be wrong, but this looks insane for that area.

[Blizzard777]

Dropped to 30 this morning.  This week is going to have an incredible average min for a number of locations.  I'm going ot be very interested to see how the details work out for the intrusion of cold / very dry air in a couple of days.  Some places could pull off some crazy minus departures on a couple of days.

You beat me

32* with frost....took a bit to clear the car window this time

see if my area can manage a 29* Tuesday morning 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Baeautiful morning... looks like it bottomed out in the mid 30s at the stations around here.

 

That's my favorite view of North Bend. Is that the one I found for you a few years ago??

[snow_wizard]

That's my favorite view of North Bend. Is that the one I found for you a few years ago??

 

That is something.  I love how it's framed by the trees.  It really highlights how many trees there are in the town itself.

[Blizzard777]

Yeah looks like it. Going to be chilly sunny days coming up for awhile if it verifies.

Good time to order chipdrop and mulch the backyard

check those gutters one more time

[TT-SEA]

That's my favorite view of North Bend. Is that the one I found for you a few years ago??

Not sure... could be.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I spent 4 days at my cabin adding a 10x10 addition on the back and I have never done anything like this before but it turned out pretty good. I'm used to working with tools to work on cars not wood working. It was enjoyable to do something different with my hands that is not greasy and dirty! Still need to trim the corners and do flooring.

[Deweydog]

I'm going to make a guess for PDX on Tuesday.

 

Daytime high = 38 (will be interesting to see if the midnight temp is below 40 or not)

 

Low = 30 (with wind)

 

Winds gusting to 45 - 50

 

I could be wrong, but this looks insane for that area.

This won’t come close to verifying. The numbers just don’t support it. For us to advect down to 30 in a well-mixed atmosphere it generally takes thicknesses around 520dm or lower, unless of course we have precip. Right now they appear to bottom out around 540dm or a little higher.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ensemble is a lot colder than the 6z.  Sustained sub zero 850s in early November.

[snow_wizard]

I spent 4 days at my cabin adding a 10x10 addition on the back and I have never done anything like this before but it turned out pretty good. I'm used to working with tools to work on cars not wood working. It was enjoyable to do something different with my hands that is not greasy and dirty! Still need to trim the corners and do flooring.

 

Nice work!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nice work!

Thank you. Amazing the tools available today. That cordless miter saw is amazing.

[snow_wizard]

This won’t come close to verifying. The numbers just don’t support it. For us to advect down to 30 in a well-mixed atmosphere it generally takes thicknesses around 520dm or lower, unless of course we have precip. Right now they appear to bottom out around 540dm or a little higher.

 

We'll see.  This appears to be a situation where the low level air mass will be disproportionately cold in relation to the mid levels.  I'm fully prepared to be wrong though.

[TT-SEA]

I spent 4 days at my cabin adding a 10x10 addition on the back and I have never done anything like this before but it turned out pretty good. I'm used to working with tools to work on cars not wood working. It was enjoyable to do something different with my hands that is not greasy and dirty! Still need to trim the corners and do flooring.

That is awesome!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is awesome!

Thanks Tim. The thing that sucks about any project up there is when you have to run into town because you forgot something. If you haul a** it's 3 hr round trip to Omak lol.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks Tim. The thing that sucks about any project up there is when you have to run into town because you forgot something. If you haul a** it's 3 hr round trip to Omak lol.

Wow! That would suck.