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October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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The best I can do! TONS of snow coming for BC as the firehose of moisture is pointed at them as a very cold air mass 850s ~-20c to -28c is in place.

 

gfs_asnow_ak_65.png

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png

So as I read this, somewhere around 40+" near Big White ski resort, an hour East of Kelowna Canada about 5500 ft up? 

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Only one month until cold season!  

I spent 4 days at my cabin adding a 10x10 addition on the back and I have never done anything like this before but it turned out pretty good. I'm used to working with tools to work on cars not wood wo

I don't normally take a 2.5+ hour drive to get to a day hike and then come right back home, but Monday I couldn't resist with the fresh snow and clear blue skies!   It was very much like winter in som

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Ended October with eight freezes, and 12 mornings with at least some frost (sub-35). The most I can ever remember seeing for that month.

 

Average temperature ended up just a hair below 50. Easily the coldest October I have ever personally witnessed, which makes sense since the last one even approaching anything this cold was in the fall before I was born (1985).

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Crap, Salem only hit 26 on 10/31/06. I must issue a correction. It is the coldest Halloween morning at SLE since 2002!

I’ll dispel the fear over 2002 later, but interestingly enough the severe weather/QLCS we had last night was the first late Oct/early Nov event here since..2002. Lol. Not to mention, 2002 was also the last year with a South Pole SSW and early/dynamic FW as well. Those are pretty rare down south.

 

But, no need to fret..in reality, the only thing 2002 has going for it is the fantastic QBO alignment. But that doesn’t predict what happens regionally by itself. We can’t repeat the mid-latitude wavetrain of 2002, even with an El Niño this year, because solar maximum in conjunction with the cold strat hangover from the 1990s in 2002 produces a non-homogenous NAM/NPO. So it’s a non-starter.

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15-day precip anomaly:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf-anom-15day-

Something is up with the pattern this year, man.

 

Not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but never in recorded history has a “severe” drought established here in 10 weeks, then get completely erased in 2 weeks during one of the driest months of year climatologically (October). There’s no precedent for it at all.

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This post makes Phil VERY angry.

Grrrr!!

 

I look at that list and see a combination of ENSO and early-season WHEM MJO transits (phase 8/1 in October is actually cold west/warm east, hence 57/58, 68/69, 72/73, etc).

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...RECORD COLDEST OCTOBER 2019, UPDATED...

 

OCTOBER 2019 WILL GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER EVER FOR SEVERAL

LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST.

 

AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE

LOCATION OCT 2019 PREVIOUS RECORD RECORDS BEGAN

==================================================================

HOLDEN VILLAGE 37.4 38.0 (1985) 1962

TURNBULL NWR 38.1 39.5 (2009) 2007

NEZPERCE 39.1 40.8 (2013) 1901

SANDPOINT 39.2 40.1 (1919) 1910

WALLACE 39.2 40.3 (1946) 1941

DEER PARK 39.3 39.7 (2002) 1998

NWS SPOKANE 39.5 41.1 (2009) 1996

CHEWELAH 39.9 40.3 (2009) 1925

WINTHROP 41.8 42.6 (1984) 1906

SPOKANE AIRPORT 42.3 42.8 (1905) 1881

RITZVILLE 42.7 43.7 (1990) 1916

FELTS FIELD 43.7 44.6 (1998) 1998

KAMIAH 44.1 46.6 (2009) 1979

GRAND COULEE DAM 45.4 46.0 (2002) 1934

EPHRATA 45.8 46.3 (1984) 1949

WENATCHEE AIRPORT 45.5 46.4 (1984) 1959

WENATACHEE WATERPLANT 47.5 47.7 (1946) 1931

 

 

 

...RECORD COLDEST OCTOBER 2019, UPDATED...

 

OCTOBER 2019 WILL GO DOWN AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER EVER FOR SEVERAL

LOCATIONS IN THE INLAND NORTHWEST.

 

AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE

LOCATION OCT 2019 PREVIOUS RECORD RECORDS BEGAN

==================================================================

HOLDEN VILLAGE 37.4 38.0 (1985) 1962

TURNBULL NWR 38.1 39.5 (2009) 2007

NEZPERCE 39.1 40.8 (2013) 1901

SANDPOINT 39.2 40.1 (1919) 1910

WALLACE 39.2 40.3 (1946) 1941

DEER PARK 39.3 39.7 (2002) 1998

NWS SPOKANE 39.5 41.1 (2009) 1996

CHEWELAH 39.9 40.3 (2009) 1925

WINTHROP 41.8 42.6 (1984) 1906

SPOKANE AIRPORT 42.3 42.8 (1905) 1881

RITZVILLE 42.7 43.7 (1990) 1916

FELTS FIELD 43.7 44.6 (1998) 1998

KAMIAH 44.1 46.6 (2009) 1979

GRAND COULEE DAM 45.4 46.0 (2002) 1934

EPHRATA 45.8 46.3 (1984) 1949

WENATCHEE AIRPORT 45.5 46.4 (1984) 1959

WENATACHEE WATERPLANT 47.5 47.7 (1946) 1931

 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • 1 month later...

Day 15 EPS.  Nice GOA ridge signal, but I'm hoping we can do away with so much trough digging into the SW.  The control on the 0z showed us getting blasted so it's in the realm of possibility.

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-19554500-1576446432_thumb.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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