Jump to content
The Weather Forums

October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Only one month until cold season!  

I spent 4 days at my cabin adding a 10x10 addition on the back and I have never done anything like this before but it turned out pretty good. I'm used to working with tools to work on cars not wood wo

I don't normally take a 2.5+ hour drive to get to a day hike and then come right back home, but Monday I couldn't resist with the fresh snow and clear blue skies!   It was very much like winter in som

Posted Images

25 degrees this morning. Almost chilly.

 

In the first week of October it's not uncommon to have mid 20's but regionally I'm sure this was a cold morning.

  • Like 1

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: --
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

How much and when is the most snow you’ve seen fall where you lived?

In town? Late December 2008. We had a little over a foot at the peak a few days before Christmas.

 

Out in the Gorge, February 2014. We had an 18” depth at one point with that series of storms.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least.  Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place.  The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway.  One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA.  As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here.  That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

 

 

 

 

post-222-0-23895800-1569964087_thumb.png

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least. Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place. The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway. One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA. As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here. That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

Is that what your NPI? Index was based on?
Link to post
Share on other sites

25 degrees this morning. Almost chilly.

 

In the first week of October it's not uncommon to have mid 20's but regionally I'm sure this was a cold morning.

36 and a little frosty here. Earliest frost I’ve ever seen in Tacoma. It was pretty impressive for most places.
  • Like 1

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

Link to post
Share on other sites

36 and a little frosty here. Earliest frost I’ve ever seen in Tacoma. It was pretty impressive for most places.

 

More anomalous in lowland areas I imagine. 

 

8 out of every 10 times there is something in the 20's at KLMT during this first week. There was even a 21 in 2017 in early October.

  • Like 2

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 06.75" (67%)
Jan '20 - 18.75" (156%)
Feb '20 - 00.00" (0%)
Mar '20 - 04.75" (190%)
Apr '20 - 00.25"
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Max Gust: 53mph (08/10)
 
2020 Thunderstorms: 10
03/17, 05/18, 06/10, 06/12, 07/22
07/27, 08/05, 08/15, 08/16, 08/25
 
Hailstorms: 07/22 (1/3"), 08/05 (3/4")
Max Gust: --
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

More anomalous in lowland areas I imagine. 

 

8 out of every 10 times there is something in the 20's at KLMT during this first week. There was even a 21 in 2017 in early October.

We typically don’t see our first low in the 30s until late October or early November. Frost in mid November at is normal as well, hitting 36 on the first day of October and having frost is pretty anomalous.
  • Like 1

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

Link to post
Share on other sites

For one, I loved 2016-2017. IMBY I had 25-30 inches of snow that winter.

 

Rundown:

 

1-3 inches on December 8th, 0.75 inches of ice.

2-4 inches on December 15th.

1 inch on January 8th, 0.5 inches of ice.

17 inches on January 10th.

1 inch on February 5th.

 

Not to mention several gusts 55-65 on April 7th.

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm feeling really good about the first half of October at least.  Assuming the ECMWF is a worst case scenario it still ends up in a good place.  The 12z EPS actually looks more GFS like anyway.  One thing all the models have in common is a massive and persistent surface high over the NE Pacific and GOA.  As I have mentioned in previous seasons; years that have abnormal high pressure in that region in October almost always go on to be good winters here.  That is also a setup that will rapidly tank the PDO (a process that is already well underway).

 

Yes it does. The operational Euro seems kind of on its own right now with trying to turn that trough into a cutoff low.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

There is someone who used to live in south Salem area, had 12-15" in Feb 2014. I don't think he's a member here but he occasionally posts on one of the FB groups.

I had about 9" 2/14 in the hills of West Salem. That was about as far north as the heavy accumulations fell. South Salem hills, only about 3 miles south of me ATCF, did receive closer to a foot.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

NWS tweeted that Great Falls, MT hit 9 degrees this morning. Looks like their earliest single digits on record by a full week (10/8/1985).

Also looks like the 37 at PDX was their earliest since 9/28/1983.

The frequency at which the 1980s’ records have fallen over these last few years (relative to other decades) is interesting in the context of the ongoing +PMM/-AMM structure, which until the 2010s, was not observed outside that 1977-1994 period and (perhaps not coincidently) the 1910-1935 period.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest CulverJosh

The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

Lots of ridging in the midwest. Could spell some NorEasters if you can get some strong highs in Eastern Canada.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

Yup

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites

The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

 

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe
Link to post
Share on other sites

EUG up to 61. Beautiful crisp early fall day.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to post
Share on other sites

What does a +IOD Mean for our part of the globe

It’s an interesting thought experiment. Typically it’s a secondary boundary condition that only affects North America depending on what more dominant drivers are doing. It tends to be associated with -NAOs during the winter, all else being equal.

 

However, a prolific +IOD that *is* the most dominant low/medium frequency mode present in the tropics will, by default, affect the wavetrain across Eurasia/NATL/NPAC via the stunting of IPWP/MC exhaust and possibly effects on the Eurasian wavetrain/Siberian High.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s an interesting thought experiment. Typically it’s a secondary boundary condition that only affects North America depending on what more dominant drivers are doing. It tends to be associated with -NAOs during the winter, all else being equal.

 

However, a prolific +IOD that *is* the most dominant low/medium frequency mode present in the tropics will, by default, affect the wavetrain across Eurasia/NATL/NPAC via the stunting of IPWP/MC exhaust and possibly effects on the Eurasian wavetrain/Siberian High.

So it's an experiment, which means nothing currently.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Is that what your NPI? Index was based on?

 

I have one index called the NPS and the other is the EO.  The one I was referring to was the NPS (North Pacific surface pressure).

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The 18z is really going the right way with next week's trough once again.  The runs that avoid merging the cutoff low to our SW and the cold trough digging down from the NW end up really good.  That trough could be close to as cold as the recent one if it plays out right.  It appears it will be more of an open trough instead of a closed low though.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like another cold one tonight.  We should have some great color on the trees by mid month.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

The MJO appears to be stuck in octant one for the next couple of weeks so no real reason to expect much change before mid month.  Obviously MJO 1 at this point in the season with this background state is working for us!

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Driving home today saw Rainier in the beautiful virgin white snow as well!!!

 

High today 63*

Currently 60*

Not many times I've headed out fishing for fall salmon and seen snow capped peaks. Usually leads to tougher fishing because the fish are able to spread out. But I'm ok with it.

  • Like 1

KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid

Link to post
Share on other sites

53 at the moment in Tacoma, should get down into the upper 30s tonight but I’m doubtful we see frost again. Still upper 30s is quite cold for this early in the year.

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

Link to post
Share on other sites

What goes around comes around, my brother. :P

If we get a cold and snowy December then I'll root for you guys out East. I'm all for sharing the wealth. Can't get too greedy.

  • Like 2

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest daniel1

The MJO appears to be stuck in octant one for the next couple of weeks so no real reason to expect much change before mid month. Obviously MJO 1 at this point in the season with this background state is working for us!

Would be much much different come DJF which is why you should be careful what you wish for.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like a dud for the east coast in general. They will have occasional chances as they always do, but it is Rockies west this year.

 

I'm curious to know why. Are there meteorological implications, and could you explain them to someone (me) who isn't so well-versed in weather-lingo?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to post
Share on other sites

The EPS weeklies have an outrageous +IOD signal in the tropics (both in U850 & VP200 anoms) through week 6. Raging easterlies across the IO with subsidence sprawling over the Maritime Continent.

Verbatim, it’s the overpowering low-medium pass signal dominating the entire globe. More so than anything resembling a sensible EOF for ENSO.

I was discussing this with my mother today, fascinating stuff.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m still trying to figure out the WHAM!

 

Wake me up, before you go go?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...