Grizzcoat Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Euro #'s for Devils Lake,ND- holy smokes!ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DVL LAT= 48.12 LON= -98.92 ELE= 1453 00Z OCT08 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 08-OCT 14.3 9.6 1009 49 25 565 557 TUE 06Z 08-OCT 11.4 12.7 1006 54 14 564 559 TUE 12Z 08-OCT 9.9 15.1 1003 64 59 0.00 564 561 TUE 18Z 08-OCT 17.4 15.0 1002 54 30 0.00 565 563 WED 00Z 09-OCT 15.7 15.8 1002 72 36 0.00 565 563 WED 06Z 09-OCT 10.8 15.3 1003 87 49 0.00 564 561 WED 12Z 09-OCT 8.0 8.4 1005 94 20 0.00 563 559 WED 18Z 09-OCT 6.8 3.2 1010 82 28 0.03 563 555 THU 00Z 10-OCT 3.9 -0.7 1016 84 47 0.06 563 551 THU 06Z 10-OCT 2.6 -2.9 1021 83 85 0.02 564 547 THU 12Z 10-OCT 1.8 -4.3 1021 83 99 0.05 562 545 THU 18Z 10-OCT 0.8 -5.0 1023 89 93 0.57 562 544 FRI 00Z 11-OCT 0.4 -5.8 1022 88 98 0.17 560 543 FRI 06Z 11-OCT 0.6 -6.5 1019 87 98 0.12 558 542 FRI 12Z 11-OCT 0.4 -5.8 1014 88 100 0.10 553 542 FRI 18Z 11-OCT 0.5 -5.9 1008 91 101 0.39 548 542 SAT 00Z 12-OCT 0.6 -5.7 1005 91 104 0.78 541 537 SAT 06Z 12-OCT 0.6 -5.6 1002 92 102 0.69 538 536 SAT 12Z 12-OCT 0.5 -5.6 1002 91 92 0.50 537 536 SAT 18Z 12-OCT 0.9 -5.5 1004 87 87 0.07 539 536 SUN 00Z 13-OCT 1.0 -5.3 1006 88 59 0.06 541 537 SUN 06Z 13-OCT 1.0 -4.8 1007 89 50 0.03 543 538 SUN 12Z 13-OCT 1.1 -4.7 1008 91 79 0.01 543 537 SUN 18Z 13-OCT 1.6 -4.2 1009 89 51 0.01 545 537 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 It's hard to fathom the amount of snow the Euro keeps spitting out run to run along with the GFS. Both of them are suggesting 2-3 feet somewhere over the Upper MW. Just an incredible storm is in the works. #Makin'History 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 This storm means business. Wow. Enjoy the snowstorm y'all. That is a lot of snow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 I cannot believe the amounts that the models are consistantly throwing out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 With 2m temps above freezing, add warm (& moist) ground. You can cut those totals down a fair amount imho. Still a potent storm by mid-Oct standards. Apparently CPC was so hesitant yesterday afternoon, that they weren't willing to put a "heavy snow zone" outside the mountains: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 With 2m temps above freezing, add warm (& moist) ground. You can cut those totals down a fair amount imho. Still a potent storm by mid-Oct standards. Apparently CPC was so hesitant yesterday afternoon, that they weren't willing to put a "heavy snow zone" outside the mountains: 20191007 hazards_d3_7_contours.pngTrue. But remember ground temps during a snowfall can quickly become colder (cold enough) than 2M temps. Some of the biggest snow events here in DSM the last 5 years have happened with 2M temps at 33F during the heaviest snow. Albeit it was FEB, but temp can be much different at ground level than 2M. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 True. But remember ground temps during a snowfall can quickly become colder (cold enough) than 2M temps. Some of the biggest snow events here in DSM the last 5 years have happened with 2M temps at 33F during the heaviest snow. Albeit it was FEB, but temp can be much different at ground level than 2M. Same way that the Nov bliz last year robbed Tom's total due to it being the first storm and early one at that. There's more to overcome versus the same parameters later in winter (Feb). I will add that wind may actually help with cooling in this case. Tom's problem last year was those strong winds blowing in off a warm Lake Michigan. 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 The Twin Cities largest snowstorm ever (Halloween 1991) started hours after a high of 65 degrees the day before. 28” of snow fell on warm ground. You can talk about warm soil, bottom up melting, 2m temps, etc. But time and time again it’s proven that if it snows heavily, those warm factors can be overcome in a hurry. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 There was a Nov 2001 snowstorm in Minnesota that the current storm may play out similar to. Despite it occuring in late November. That November was record warm up until that point. I was in St cloud at the time and got about a foot of snow after nearly 24 hours of rain before changing to wet snow. I remember Wilmar MN having a storm total of 30".https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/snowstorm011127.html 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 A few tidbits from Lezaks blog this morning on this upcoming storm and this years LRC.There is a strong cold front, and it is well defined. Last year the fronts over the plains were rarely well defined, and certainly nothing like this.The temperature contrast is from the 20s to the 90s. It will be fun to show this on NBC tonight on KSHB, 41 Action News.The upper level storm system is unlike anything we have seen in years. Oh, there have been upper lows that have ripped out of the Rocky Mountains, but nothing like this one, and the waves rotating around the storm are so different than anything we experienced a year ago.There is one wave rotating around the base of the storm as you can see below. This wave will help produce the energy for a few severe thunderstorms, and there is a risk from the SPCAnd, another wave is forecast to rotate around the main storm that will produce a potential band of rain and thunderstorms in the colder air north and west of the front. This must be watched to see if this exists in other storm systems this winter. It likely will, but lets see it happen first. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 The 12Z Euro shows the difference between feet of snow and virtually nothing is not that far in miles from Eastern North Dakota to Western Minnesota. Basically the cut off is the border. Interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 A few tidbits from Lezaks blog this morning on this upcoming storm and this years LRC.There is a strong cold front, and it is well defined. Last year the fronts over the plains were rarely well defined, and certainly nothing like this.The temperature contrast is from the 20s to the 90s. It will be fun to show this on NBC tonight on KSHB, 41 Action News.The upper level storm system is unlike anything we have seen in years. Oh, there have been upper lows that have ripped out of the Rocky Mountains, but nothing like this one, and the waves rotating around the storm are so different than anything we experienced a year ago.There is one wave rotating around the base of the storm as you can see below. This wave will help produce the energy for a few severe thunderstorms, and there is a risk from the SPCAnd, another wave is forecast to rotate around the main storm that will produce a potential band of rain and thunderstorms in the colder air north and west of the front. This must be watched to see if this exists in other storm systems this winter. It likely will, but lets see it happen first. Some interesting observations in those comments. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 70° In Fargo before the Winter Storm Watch goes into effect. Good stuff. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Grand Forks comparing this storm to last October's snow...eerily similar to say the least...this one will be even bigger and stronger... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted October 8, 2019 Report Share Posted October 8, 2019 Grand Forks comparing this storm to last October's snow...eerily similar to say the least...this one will be even bigger and stronger... I remember that snowstorm last year. That storm was modeled to primarily affect central and east central MN. But the snow band setup over eastern ND and just kept regenerating like a summer thunderstorm on radar. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 Nature is just beginning to unleash her fury out in the N Rockies as our storm system has dived SE into the N Rockies, taking what's known as an "inside runner" track, which IMO will be a common N stream storm track this season. The beauty of nature is unfolding and as the northern tier of the U.S. will be inundated by a multi-day Historic October snowstorm. I wasn't exaggerating when I said this system had the potential to be a beast if the blocking set up just right. With that being said, it's going to be interesting tracking this blockbuster...Blizzard??? The NWS of Bismark is already talking about the historic potential from this storm... https://www.weather.gov/media/bis/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 Models have ramped up the rainfall for IA tonight into Thursday. Widespread 1-2" is looking possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 Nature is just beginning to unleash her fury out in the N Rockies as our storm system has dived SE into the N Rockies, taking what's known as an "inside runner" track, which IMO will be a common N stream storm track this season. The beauty of nature is unfolding and as the northern tier of the U.S. will be inundated by a multi-day Historic October snowstorm. I wasn't exaggerating when I said this system had the potential to be a beast if the blocking set up just right. With that being said, it's going to be interesting tracking this blockbuster...Blizzard??? The NWS of Bismark is already talking about the historic potential from this storm... https://www.weather.gov/media/bis/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf Didn't realize this is a 1-2 punch scenario. Should be fascinating to follow! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 This is a potent storm for October standards. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 All eyes out into the Dakotas for this storm. But I’m excited about snow showers and 40mph gusts on Saturday here. I’ll have a bonfire going as I rake leaves. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 All eyes out into the Dakotas for this storm. But I’m excited about snow showers and 40mph gusts on Saturday here. I’ll have a bonfire going as I rake leaves.That's a great weekend right there! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 All eyes out into the Dakotas for this storm. But I’m excited about snow showers and 40mph gusts on Saturday here. I’ll have a bonfire going as I rake leaves. That's a great weekend right there! I can almost smell that by memory. Enjoy it 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 20191009 Bliz Tweet.PNGWOW Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 WOWWill be excited if we get maps to move south in the coming months 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 /\ and let's not forget EAST! lolz CPC's confidence has elevated and yesterday they went with the tri-fecta Hvy Snow/High Winds/Below temps = bliz zone 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 9, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 18z NAM...there's something about seeing these kinda lollipop snowfall totals even though they probably are too high. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 9, 2019 Report Share Posted October 9, 2019 18z NAM...there's something about seeing these kinda lollipop snowfall totals even though they probably are too high. With a date of 10-13 on it. Yeah, it's a pretty darn amazing map. It would be a good map for 12-13. Lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 With a date of 10-13 on it. Yeah, it's a pretty darn amazing map. It would be a good map for 12-13. Lol.I suppose anything is possible, but pragmaticly this amount of moisture being transported to the center of the north America with enough cold air present for snow to fall could only be expected on the fringes of the cold season...mainly October or April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Will be excited if we get maps to move south in the coming monthsYup..that would be fantastic to see maps like that for our regions in the near future. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 I suppose anything is possible, but pragmaticly this amount of moisture being transported to the center of the north America with enough cold air present for snow to fall could only be expected on the fringes of the cold season...mainly October or April. Thanks BI This is exactly the point I was trying to make about how different MSP is from DTW. These crazy high moisture systems and adequate cold NEVER meet up over the S. Great Lakes. If the moisture can get there, the cold can't, and vice-versa. That being said, Detroit did pull it off once - April of 1886. Perhaps I need to replace NEVER with ALMOST NEVER. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Thanks BI This is exactly the point I was trying to make about how different MSP is from DTW. These crazy high moisture systems and adequate cold NEVER meet up over the S. Great Lakes. If the moisture can get there, the cold can't, and vice-versa. That being said, Detroit did pull it off once - April of 1886. Perhaps I need to replace NEVER with ALMOST NEVER. A whopping 2footer+ Quote:April 6, 1886 : Detroit Endures Record Snow. The worst snowstorm in Detroit history came in early April, 1886, and dumped 24.5 inches of the white stuff on the city. Accompanying winds caused drifts up to 12 feet high in some places. The second worst storm in 1974 brought us a mere 19.2 inches.Apr 6, 2018 https://blogpublic.lib.msu.edu/red-tape/2018/apr/april-6-1886-detroit-endures-record-snow/ Man, how sweet that was. I wonder if the cold air remained thereafter and how long the snow stayed on the ground. W the high sun angle, probably melted fast during the next couple of days. Snow piles may have remained into May, I would think. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 A whopping 2footer+ Quote:April 6, 1886 : Detroit Endures Record Snow. The worst snowstorm in Detroit history came in early April, 1886, and dumped 24.5 inches of the white stuff on the city. Accompanying winds caused drifts up to 12 feet high in some places. The second worst storm in 1974 brought us a mere 19.2 inches.Apr 6, 2018 https://blogpublic.lib.msu.edu/red-tape/2018/apr/april-6-1886-detroit-endures-record-snow/ Man, how sweet that was. I wonder if the cold air remained thereafter and how long the snow stayed on the ground. W the high sun angle, probably melted fast during the next couple of days. Snow piles may have remained into May, I would think. I've read a more detailed news account. The snow was very high moisture content and with the high winds basically drifted into immovable mounds to the point it derailed train cars! I don't think that melted rapidly the way a typical spring snow does. As a youth I experienced a similar 18" storm in Genesee Cnty April 2-3, 1975. Not certain how many days of actual snow cover followed, but the pile at the end of my street remained well past "green-up" and into baseball playing weather. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 I've read a more detailed news account. The snow was very high moisture content and with the high winds basically drifted into immovable mounds to the point it derailed train cars! I don't think that melted rapidly the way a typical spring snow does. As a youth I experienced a similar 18" storm in Genesee Cnty April 2-3, 1975. Not certain how many days of actual snow cover followed, but the pile at the end of my street remained well past "green-up" and into baseball playing weather. Snow piles w the April, 1886 Blitz probably survived into May (Maybe?!) Who knows. Let me know if you find that answer. Very curious. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Getting some late night boomers here. Meanwhile the panhandle is getting rocked with snow. Scottsbluff is currently down to 1/4 mile visibility. 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Up to 1/2” of snow in the point for Saturday. I always love mowing the lawn/mulching leaves while it snows. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Nice snow squall stretching from Scottsbluff to Cheyenne down to Boulder currently. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 I suppose anything is possible, but pragmaticly this amount of moisture being transported to the center of the north America with enough cold air present for snow to fall could only be expected on the fringes of the cold season...mainly October or April.This is true. Its still impressive even for October standards. I do agree though. My largest snows down here, historically have been in late February or March even though the monthly avgs are much less. They should be though considering the variance in Nov and Mar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 from the Grand Forks AFD.. SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019The most difficult snow forecast and highest snowfall forecast ofmy 30 year career.Hard to believe model data at this point. Chat with WPC and theycan`t believe it either 6 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 ..and this tidbit Main upper low will move thru western MN and settle over NW MNFriday night and then wobble around. A very strong def zone willbe over E ND Friday afternoon and night with heavy snow and likelyvery high snow rates...NE ND ...roughly Hallock to Grand Forks tojust west of Fargo and west. Very strong winds will develop westof the sfc low which will near the 500 mb low location. Well mixedlayer up thru 50-55 kts to mix down Langdon to btwn Devils Lakeand Grand Forks Friday into Saturday AM. Stacked monster storms - whoa! at the potential for the lucky Tell you what. If I was anywhere within striking distance it'd be storm chase time! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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