Stormhunter87 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Not in the sweet spot but 3-6 ain't bad. Although I expect 2-3 of that to melt on contact. Only had 2 hard freezes. Looking great for kc to the northeast! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 So, is everyone throwing out the GFS now because it's not showing much snow? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 In the same boat! Except I'm on the Okie edge of it. Only guarantee here is the coldest Halloween in recent memory at this time.For my sake I'd love it too but it's just not seasonable for a low to track across Ohio right now. Oh well. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I am confused, the Euro is showing almost 13 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. When exactly does that occur? Is it from two separate storms? If so, when do they occur? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 So, is everyone throwing out the GFS now because it's not showing much snow?Nobody ignored GFS. The Euro is just being talked about more at this second because the run just finished. Scroll up to when the GFS finished for discussion on that. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I am confused, the Euro is showing almost 13 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. When exactly does that occur? Is it from two separate storms? If so, when do they occur?2 systems. One Tuesday night and one the night after Halloween. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I'm skeptical of Euro. Yes, climo has been defied a lot over the past couple years, but I just don't see a low digging this far South in October. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 So, is everyone throwing out the GFS now because it's not showing much snow? I think it's more to do with the fact that the GFS is the only global model not showing a storm. The Euro, Canadian, UK, and ICON all are showing a significant system, while the GFS has nothing. Seems hard to believe all the others are wrong and the GFS is right. But we've got a few days yet, so we shall see. The GFS has already started to cave a little towards the other models. It finally has the first storm showing up (albeit very weak). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 From DVN's AFD In the models, the deterministic GFS remains alone in forecastinga dry, benign pattern through the end of the week. The GEM andECMWF both keep the synoptic deep trof centered west, near theeastern Rockies, resulting in both a cold, and tremendously activepattern over the Midwest/Iowa/Illinois. That pattern will at leastpartially interact with the tropical flow out of the gulf. Thus,there is potential for some moderate to heavy precipitation in theweek ahead. Whether that falls as snow or rain or combo thereof,an active forecast is very possible through next weekend.WPC is now also supporting a possible winter event in it`sextended forecast %s. Time will tell, and certainly, thisforecast is expected to change since we`re just now advertising awet forecast in the grids. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I'm skeptical of Euro. Yes, climo has been defied a lot over the past couple years, but I just don't see a low digging this far South in October.Don't be skeptical, the system effecting TX and the deep South is doing just that right now...ULL will be just north or near DFW later tonight... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 For my sake I'd love it too but it's just not seasonable for a low to track across Ohio right now. Oh well.I know. I'm good with not even worrying much about it, but it's awesome to see everyone getting pumped for winter and the upcoming storm. Especially Jaster and some of the others. They've been waiting awhile on wild wintery weather. I have too, but you folks' definition of good winter and mine are obviously measured differently. Lol. I'd take one of you guys' bad winters at this point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Euro is very consistent wow. Hard to not get excited! I'm all in for a while Halloween! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 Looks like the GFS might finally be turning the corner. Maybe. Edit: nevermind. I thought something big was gonna pop after 108. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 25, 2019 Report Share Posted October 25, 2019 I am confused, the Euro is showing almost 13 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. When exactly does that occur? Is it from two separate storms? If so, when do they occur? The Euro drops 0.40" snow precip in CR Tuesday, then another 0.80" Thursday. However, the Des Moines NWS thinks the Tuesday snow will melt on contact. Also, even if we do get 0.80" of precip from the Thursday biggie, I wouldn't necessarily expect more than 4 inches of snow from that. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 GFS seems to be catching up quick now just seems to be timing and track differences. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Does Jim flowers still have a page? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 12z Euro is advertising a classic Arklatex track up towards the Lower GL's...25mb drop in 24 hours = Bombogenesis I like the way that reads out. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Does Jim flowers still have a page?He does but he said he won't post much anymore. I've got a feeling he might post for this storm. Should note that turns the page off and on when he does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Which model do you believe in?!The first of these shortwaves rounds the trough and moves over thecentral Great Lakes during the day Tuesday. Beyond this point, thereis a large amount of uncertainty in how this system and one thatfollows will move across the country. The EURO has the center of thelow over northern Lake Michigan keeping SE MI fairly dry Tuesday.The associated cold front attempts to push through late Tuesdaynight into early Wednesday morning but stalls over the region. Thisfrontal boundary allows for the development of a low over thesouthern Mississippi valley that moves north-northeast directly overthe CWA. This brings heavy rain Wednesday and Thursday with snowshowers on the backside late Thursday into Friday. The GFS has acompletely different solution with the original cold front making itacross SE MI and stalling over eastern Ohio. The new low developsfurther east and affects the Northeast with SE MI remaining dry, butcold.For now, pops will remain in the chance range Wednesday and Thursdayand will be more refined as we get into the weekend and beginning ofthe new work week. Regardless of the precip, there is a highprobability of a cold airmass moving into the Great Lakes region forthe middle and end of next week leading to a cold Halloween. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I know. I'm good with not even worrying much about it, but it's awesome to see everyone getting pumped for winter and the upcoming storm. Especially Jaster and some of the others. They've been waiting awhile on wild wintery weather. I have too, but you folks' definition of good winter and mine are obviously measured differently. Lol. I'd take one of you guys' bad winters at this point. I'd order you up 1917-18 incoming if it were possible. I still consider that a possible analog season 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 GFS is slowly but surely caving. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Icon hits north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I'd order you up 1917-18 incoming if it were possible. I still consider that a possible analog season I do too. Especially with this "tropical punch" ongoing. It has ties and similarities to that year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Fine line. Any deepening or southward component/more suppression and I get to see snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 The GFS finally agrees w the European model and saids, yes, you were correct all of this time. It will be stormy. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 It's nice to see the GFS try to jump on board the Halloween storm. The GFS, Canadian, ICON, and NAM are all pretty weak with the first wave onTuesday. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Fine line. Any deepening or southward component/more suppression and I get to see snow.gfs_asnow_us_22.pngClose call for your area. That should be fun for you to see some flakes in your vicinity, even if it doesn't stick. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Some ensembles give some decent accumulations even for my area 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Some ensembles give some decent accumulations even for my areaI have a running bet with my dad about snow here in Omaha but if some of those actually happen in central Missouri I think he would go crazy lol. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Some ensembles give some decent accumulations even for my areaYeesh. All but a couple of those give me at least a dusting. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 00z UK a bit east and a bit weaker with the Halloween storm. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Looks like the king is starting to shift nw! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Wouldn’t be surprised if that trend continues today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Looks like gfs finally caved https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019102606&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 CFS is trying to lay down a large swath of snow...prob over done but certainly agreeing somewhat with the Euro.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 6z GFS finally fully bought in. Major shift north and much stronger. Blasts most of Iowa with a lot of snow. As mentioned Euro also shifted the snow band further NW. several days out yet but I have a feeling I’ll be riding the edge in this one. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I am guessing it just keeps heading North.. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I think the 2nd waves' track is highly dependent on what the first wave does.(and where any snow gets laid down, even for a day or so). I wouldn't get excited either way for the 2nd wave until the first wave moves on through and does it's thing.Also- one would think based on climate that the 2nd wave would more favor the Dakotas' and MN - but Texas recently seeing TSSN - all bets are off on that and this air mass for mid-week is near records for lows. Anyone remember 1997? 7" of snow here in DSM late OCT right when the Marlins won the World Series. Power outages due to leaves still on trees. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Wave 1 is kinda pooping out on the models. Some white on the grass is probably what we can expect. I hate to see the Halloween storm shift nw, but it's tough to fight climatology. Last night's euro would probably put down 1-2" total here for the week. I guess I have to call any accumulating snow in October a win. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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