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10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm


Tom

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In the same boat! Except I'm on the Okie edge of it.

 

Only guarantee here is the coldest Halloween in recent memory at this time.

For my sake I'd love it too but it's just not seasonable for a low to track across Ohio right now. Oh well.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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So, is everyone throwing out the GFS now because it's not showing much snow?

Nobody ignored GFS. The Euro is just being talked about more at this second because the run just finished. Scroll up to when the GFS finished for discussion on that.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I am confused, the Euro is showing almost 13 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. When exactly does that occur? Is it from two separate storms? If so, when do they occur?

2 systems. One Tuesday night and one the night after Halloween.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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So, is everyone throwing out the GFS now because it's not showing much snow?

 

I think it's more to do with the fact that the GFS is the only global model not showing a storm.  The Euro, Canadian, UK, and ICON all are showing a significant system, while the GFS has nothing.  Seems hard to believe all the others are wrong and the GFS is right.  But we've got a few days yet, so we shall see.  The GFS has already started to cave a little towards the other models.  It finally has the first storm showing up (albeit very weak).  

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From DVN's AFD

 

 

In the models, the deterministic GFS remains alone in forecasting
a dry, benign pattern through the end of the week. The GEM and
ECMWF both keep the synoptic deep trof centered west, near the
eastern Rockies, resulting in both a cold, and tremendously active
pattern over the Midwest/Iowa/Illinois. That pattern will at least
partially interact with the tropical flow out of the gulf. Thus,
there is potential for some moderate to heavy precipitation in the
week ahead. Whether that falls as snow or rain or combo thereof,
an active forecast is very possible through next weekend.

WPC is now also supporting a possible winter event in it`s
extended forecast %s. Time will tell, and certainly, this
forecast is expected to change since we`re just now advertising a
wet forecast in the grids.

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I'm skeptical of Euro. Yes, climo has been defied a lot over the past couple years, but I just don't see a low digging this far South in October.

Don't be skeptical, the system effecting TX and the deep South is doing just that right now...ULL will be just north or near DFW later tonight...

 

 

nam3km_z500_vort_us_15.png

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For my sake I'd love it too but it's just not seasonable for a low to track across Ohio right now. Oh well.

I know. I'm good with not even worrying much about it, but it's awesome to see everyone getting pumped for winter and the upcoming storm. Especially Jaster and some of the others. They've been waiting awhile on wild wintery weather.

 

I have too, but you folks' definition of good winter and mine are obviously measured differently. Lol. I'd take one of you guys' bad winters at this point.

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I am confused, the Euro is showing almost 13 inches of snow in Cedar Rapids. When exactly does that occur? Is it from two separate storms? If so, when do they occur?

 

The Euro drops 0.40" snow precip in CR Tuesday, then another 0.80" Thursday.  However, the Des Moines NWS thinks the Tuesday snow will melt on contact.  Also, even if we do get 0.80" of precip from the Thursday biggie, I wouldn't necessarily expect more than 4 inches of snow from that.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro is advertising a classic Arklatex track up towards the Lower GL's...25mb drop in 24 hours = Bombogenesis 

I like the way that reads out. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Which model do you believe in?!

The first of these shortwaves rounds the trough and moves over the
central Great Lakes during the day Tuesday. Beyond this point, there
is a large amount of uncertainty in how this system and one that
follows will move across the country. The EURO has the center of the
low over northern Lake Michigan keeping SE MI fairly dry Tuesday.
The associated cold front attempts to push through late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning but stalls over the region. This
frontal boundary allows for the development of a low over the
southern Mississippi valley that moves north-northeast directly over
the CWA. This brings heavy rain Wednesday and Thursday with snow
showers on the backside late Thursday into Friday. The GFS has a
completely different solution with the original cold front making it
across SE MI and stalling over eastern Ohio. The new low develops
further east and affects the Northeast with SE MI remaining dry, but
cold.

For now, pops will remain in the chance range Wednesday and Thursday
and will be more refined as we get into the weekend and beginning of
the new work week. Regardless of the precip, there is a high
probability of a cold airmass moving into the Great Lakes region for
the middle and end of next week leading to a cold Halloween.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I know. I'm good with not even worrying much about it, but it's awesome to see everyone getting pumped for winter and the upcoming storm. Especially Jaster and some of the others. They've been waiting awhile on wild wintery weather.

 

I have too, but you folks' definition of good winter and mine are obviously measured differently. Lol. I'd take one of you guys' bad winters at this point.

 

I'd order you up 1917-18 incoming if it were possible. I still consider that a possible analog season  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GFS finally agrees w the European model and saids, yes, you were correct all of this time. It will be stormy.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's nice to see the GFS try to jump on board the Halloween storm.

 

The GFS, Canadian, ICON, and NAM are all pretty weak with the first wave onTuesday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Fine line. Any deepening or southward component/more suppression and I get to see snow.

attachicon.gifgfs_asnow_us_22.png

Close call for your area. That should be fun for you to see some flakes in your vicinity, even if it doesn't stick.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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D4171AA6-BDA3-4273-A9C5-EDD67EE7FDD4.png

 

Some ensembles give some decent accumulations even for my area

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I think the 2nd waves' track is highly dependent on what the first wave does.(and where any snow gets laid down, even for a day or so). I wouldn't get excited either way for the 2nd wave until the first wave moves on through and does it's thing.

Also- one would think based on climate that the 2nd wave would more favor the Dakotas' and MN - but Texas recently seeing TSSN - all bets are off on that and this air mass for mid-week is near records for lows. Anyone remember 1997? 7" of snow here in DSM late OCT right when the Marlins won the  World Series. Power outages due to leaves still on trees.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Wave 1 is kinda pooping out on the models.  Some white on the grass is probably what we can expect.

 

I hate to see the Halloween storm shift nw, but it's tough to fight climatology.  Last night's euro would probably put down 1-2" total here for the week.  I guess I have to call any accumulating snow in October a win.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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