Deweydog Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Totally sunny and 61/31 here today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 64/20 here. Nice day. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Parts of the region, including Portland, just had their coldest October since 1949. And now we seem to be turning fairly mild in November, as we did that year. And then to top it off you have Phil calling for a holy s**t January. It’s no 2002 or 2004, but given the context/some of the similarities in observed weather the last month+, I would say it’s as relevant now as it’s ever been.The thing is, seasonal analogs cannot always be predictive of tendencies on weekly (or even monthly) timescales, especially during seasonal transitions. And the farther back you go, the more likely it is that you will not have analogous large scale boundary conditions to work with, irrespective of ENSO or what have you. Furthermore, years with completely different ENSOs, etc can produce very similar outcomes both seasonally and subseasonally at particular locations. So the signal vs noise (background state vs intraseasonal variability) issue comes into play. The most surefire way to obtain predictability via analogs is to aggregate the largest sample size possible, with the greatest degree of homogeneity to the current system state from a lower frequency standpoint. The higher frequency variability can arise out of the lower frequency state, or sometimes vice versa, but it can’t be predicted accurately until the former (low-freq) progression is nailed down. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Phil has called for about 4 holy s**t Januaries before this...DUE. Then again, Dewey has called for at least 6 White Thanksgivings...MORE DUE.To be fair, I’ve called for two. And both ended up very blocky with strong -EPOs. Just badly oriented. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 The thing is, seasonal analogs cannot always be predictive of tendencies on weekly (or even monthly) timescales, especially during seasonal transitions. And the farther back you go, the more likely it is that you will not have analogous large scale boundary conditions to work with, irrespective of ENSO or what have you. Furthermore, years with completely different ENSOs, etc can produce very similar outcomes both seasonally and subseasonally at particular locations. So the signal vs noise (background state vs intraseasonal variability) issue comes into play. The most surefire way to obtain predictability via analogs is to aggregate the largest sample size possible, with the greatest degree of homogeneity to the current system state from a lower frequency standpoint. The higher frequency variability can arise out of the lower frequency state, or sometimes vice versa, but it can’t be predicted accurately until the former (low-freq) progression is nailed down. This all seems like pretty common sense stuff. My point wasn't even that it is necessarily a great analog, just that, despite the fact that it gets brought up every year, there have actually been some parallels between this fall and that one so far. So no one should be too surprised to see it getting talked about, since for once the observed weather in the lead up actually somewhat matches what we saw that year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Phil’s previous early winter forecasts: THIS COULD BE IT GUYS Reality: Meh Phil’s forecast this year: Meh winter for anyone west of the cascades. This is not the winter you’re looking for. Reality: ... 2002 is an analogue for people who hate to see snow on their lawn or palm trees. Or for those who are simply afraid to dream. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 This all seems like pretty common sense stuff. My point wasn't even that it was necessarily a great analog, just that, despite the fact that it gets brought up every year, there have actually been some parallels between this fall and that one, so far. So no one should be too surprised to see it getting talked about, since for once the observed weather in the lead up actually somewhat matches what we saw that year.Fair enough. I might be projecting a bit, since I’m not sure anyone has actually claimed it to be a verbatim analog. I guess what matters to me is *why* particular years’ subseasonal pattern progressions overlap. Because that does seem to happen more frequently during seasonal transitions, and it can be deceptive. Or sometimes it’s actually conveying something deeper yet blatantly observable and you can miss it by overthinking it. And in this case, I have a colder/blockier January predicted, which would fit the 1949/50 progression. But the wavetrain itself (and how it’s achieved dynamically) will almost certainly have be different than 1949/50, IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Fair enough. I might be projecting a bit, since I’m not sure anyone has actually claimed it to be a verbatim analog. I guess what matters to me is *why* particular years’ subseasonal pattern progressions overlap. Because that does seem to happen more frequently during seasonal transitions, and it can be deceptive. Or sometimes it’s actually conveying something deeper yet blatantly observable and you can miss it by overthinking it. And in this case, I have a colder/blockier January predicted, which would fit the 1949/50 progression. But the wavetrain/how it’s achieved dynamically will almost certainly have be different than 1949/50, IMO. I would imagine that is pretty much always the case. You are never going to have two winters (or any season for that matter) that are totally identical. Especially in terms of forcings and everything which is where sh*t starts to get really complex. Which is why there is no such thing as a perfect, slam dunk analog. At best, they are rough guidelines that may work for some periods and not work for others. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 He wants to hang out with his brother and see his new life in college. At least he got to see them lose!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 There have been some pretty good PNW winters recently. But no one nailed them, timing-wise. Which is a fairly impossible ask of LR forecasting. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 There have been some pretty good PNW winters recently. But no one nailed them, timing-wise. Which is a fairly impossible ask of LR forecasting.Don’t tell Rod Hill!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Zero Zee GeeEffEss is running. This one run will decide the fate of winter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 What happens when we finally encounter a year truly without an analog??? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Perfect sarcastic post 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Zero Zee GeeEffEss is running. This one run will decide the fate of winter. 00z GFS is rainless through hour 78, which is as far as it's loaded up to now. 78 is shorthand for 1978, a year where about 30" of rain fell at PDX, rounded down. 1978 + 30 = 2008 ANALOG? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 I dont laugh all day until I read the forum 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 A November 1985 analog dropped out of the sky and landed right next to my dog the moment I took this pic. Prepare now! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 00z GFS is rainless through hour 78, which is as far as it's loaded up to now. 78 is shorthand for 1978, a year where about 30" of rain fell at PDX, rounded down. 1978 + 30 = 2008 ANALOG?Is 2008 an analog? 2019 - 2008 = 11, 2019 - 1978 = 41, 41 + 11 = 52. 1978: 1+9+7+8 = 25, 2008: 2+0+0+8 = 10, 25+10 = 35 52 - 35 = 17. 2019 - 17 = 2002. Sorry. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Is 2008 an analog?2019 - 2008 = 11, 2019 - 1978 = 41, 41 + 11 = 52.1978: 1+9+7+8 = 25, 2008: 2+0+0+8 = 10, 25+10 = 3552 - 35 = 17.2019 - 17 = 2002.Sorry. 2+0+1+9 = 12, 2+0+0+2 = 4, 12 + 4 = 16Â 2019 - 16 = 2003Â Also 2002 - 52 is 1950 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 2+0+1+9 = 12, 2+0+0+2 = 4, 12 + 4 = 16 2019 - 16 = 2003 Also 2002 - 52 is 19502019 - 52 = 1967 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 2019 - 52 = 1957  1967. 11" of snow at PDX that winter. Of course, it didn't compare to the winter that came after it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 1967. 11" of snow at PDX that winter. Of course, it didn't compare to the winter that came after it. D**n your eyes, didn’t catch that in time. Why does everyone bad mouth 1967, then? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 2002 and 1949 are both terrible analogs. Expect something in between. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 That’s some stupid blocking on the 00z GFS. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 2002 and 1949 are both terrible analogs. Expect something in between.  Congratulations First Lieutenant Obvious, you have been promoted to Captain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Anyone ever see The Number 23? That movie sucked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 California had some surprise rain and hail and even lightning this morning from a misbehaving cutoff low just off the coast that proved to be a weatherman's woe. It was all very isolated, however, but it did bring some pretty clouds. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Anyone ever see The Number 23? That movie sucked.Yeah. It sucked. Made in 2007. Analog? 00z ECMWF in 51 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Congratulations First Lieutenant Obvious, you have been promoted to Captain.Dewey and you are gonna have to fight this one out. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Yeah. It sucked. Made in 2007. Analog? 00z ECMWF in 51 minutes 2007 minus the number 23 is 1984, which was published on June 8, 1949. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Numerology = Analogy - Captain Obvious Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 #numeranalogy Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 D**mit Jared. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 Don't forget about Fall Back tonight, which means it gets dark ridiculously early tomorrow night. To add to the insult, tomorrow is the earliest solar noon of the year everywhere thanks to the Equation of Time maxing out. Down in California that means a sunset of 4:56 PM. For Portland it's 4:55 PM and for Seattle it's 4:48 PM. Compare this to February 7 of next year, which is about the same length of day, but the sunset is about 31 minutes later everywhere. So is the sunrise, however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 3, 2019 Report Share Posted November 3, 2019 I thought it was gonna be 45 tomorrow. 57 I guess instead. Must've been a typo on KPTVs 7 day last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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