November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CAA has been pretty weak here too. Only bottomed out at 39 here, and PDX has yet to fall below 40.

 

The CAA was actually much more impressive with the late October event.

 

I think if we see decent clearing we should see some chilly lows the next few nights. At least as cold as it got last week...

[Front Ranger]

Yep. At least some flakes in the air. More than I was expecting this cold season. Nice to see.

Better than 2002-03 already!

[TT-SEA]

Pretty morning... no wind here yet.

 

[Jesse]

Hopefully Jesse gets a nice snowstorm today.

We had to get back up north before things got too crazy yesterday. There was heavy precip and a rain/snow mix along I-5 from Roseburg to 20 miles north of Eugene, though. Also a gusty NNE headwind. Precip cut off rapidly north of Albany.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Better than 2002-03 already!

 

Very true. We have not surpassed 2004-05 yet, but if the 12z GFS verified it would get us close...I would consider a winter on par with 2017-18 a win. 

[TacomaWaWx]

The CAA has been pretty weak here too. Only bottomed out at 39 here, and PDX has yet to fall below 40.

 

The CAA was actually much more impressive with the late October event.

We had the temp drop into the mid 30s when the outflow event in late October, only 40 here last night. Winds were actually stronger that time too, 40-45mph E winds. DP was also about 0 degrees that time. So far, that event in late October has been more impressive than this one in terms of wind and temps. Only NE 30-35mph max winds this time and the DP in the mid 20s. Probably will get windier here this afternoon though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It only goes to 180 hours, but the ICON is fairly similar to the GFS. 

[Esquimalt]

Big league ensemble improvement this am

[Front Ranger]

[TT-SEA]

Big league ensemble improvement this am

More wet or more cold?

 

The models seem to be favoring a drier pattern which would also likely be colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Too bad December is a lost cause and it's time to look ahead to January now.

 

If December ends up dry it may end up below average. December 2017 was a massive snoozefest for everyone south of PDX, yet ended up like the 15th coldest since 1892 at EUG. 

 

January probably could not be worse this year than in 2018 or 19. 

[Front Ranger]

I think if we see decent clearing we should see some chilly lows the next few nights. At least as cold as it got last week...

Agreed. It's amusing how often people are initially disappointed with a cold air mass, when most of the time it takes awhile to see the full effects.

[Esquimalt]

More wet or more cold?

The models seem to be favoring a drier pattern which would also likely be colder.

Cooler, by about 3 degrees compared to the 06Z

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS ensembles have updated through day 13 on WB.

 

The 850mb temp mean clearly shows split flow in the 7-12 day period...

 

 

 

 

And is drier than normal for the next 10 days...

 

[Front Ranger]

The CAA has been pretty weak here too. Only bottomed out at 39 here, and PDX has yet to fall below 40.

 

The CAA was actually much more impressive with the late October event.

The October event was pretty exceptional.

[Front Ranger]

The 12Z GFS ensembles have updated through day 13 on WB.

 

 

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Big improvement. Return of blocking in the general area you want it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the ensemble mean bottoms out later today around -6.1C at PDX. Not bad for November. Late next week into the weekend is going to trend way cooler on the 12z ensembles. Nothing crazy, but the operational which is way colder, is sort of middle of the pack. Mean down to -3C or so with a lot of members around -4/-5C. 

[Timmy Supercell]

6" in the yard here. Last time there was that much before the first week of December was in 2010.

 

There's varying amounts depending on where I put the ruler but I figured the average was 6". Spots up to 8-9" probably from the wind blown snow yesterday, and garbage bins have up to 5". 

 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big improvement. Return of blocking in the general area you want it.

 

If we could get rid of the meandering cut off lows at some point it would open the door to much colder airmasses. 

[TT-SEA]

Big improvement. Return of blocking in the general area you want it.

 

 

I guess it depends on what you call improvement.   Its a much drier pattern... and with split flow it could end up being pretty dull despite being colder.  

 

My definition of improvement at this point would be a week of strong, cold onshore flow to bury the mountains.  

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Agreed. It's amusing how often people are initially disappointed with a cold air mass, when most of the time it takes awhile to see the full effects.

Said nothing about being disappointed. Just reported my conditions.

 

Obviously it’s going to get colder. Wouldn’t surprise me to see PDX pull off a high of 40 or lower by this weekend.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like it got down to 26 a little earlier this morning. Now sitting at 30.

Sounds like you're in a great spot for cold temps.

[Front Ranger]

I guess it depends on what you call improvement. Its a much drier pattern... and with split flow it could end up being pretty dull despite being colder.

 

My definition of improvement at this point would be a week of strong, cold onshore flow to bury the mountains.

Like I said, better blocking. More potential.

[Timmy Supercell]

6" in the yard here. Last time there was that much before the first week of December was in 2010.

 

There's varying amounts depending on where I put the ruler but I figured the average was 6". Spots up to 8-9" probably from the wind blown snow yesterday, and garbage bins have up to 5". 

 

Snow began 11am yesterday, stopping around 4am (17 hours).

[Jesse]

12z GFS is colder and actually has a decent amount of precip mixed in there.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS ensemble in 11-16 day period... blah.

 

[Front Ranger]

Said nothing about being disappointed. Just reported my conditions.

I wasn't referring to your post in particular. Just a general vibe and trend on here. Happens a lot, with lots of posters.

[Jesse]

Kind of funny that a lot of places west of the Cascades will likely end up with a cooler than average November considering all of the warm maps that have been posted the last 4-5 weeks.

[TacomaWaWx]

12z GFS is colder and actually has a decent amount of precip mixed in there.

Snow wiz will be happy about the possible cold anomalies.

[Jesse]

I wasn't referring to your post in particular. Just a general vibe and trend on here. Happens a lot, with lots of posters.

Oh yeah, this place is thoroughly weeniefied.

[Perturbed Member]

Agreed. It's amusing how often people are initially disappointed with a cold air mass, when most of the time it takes awhile to see the full effects.

 

The 12z GFS has 850s bottoming out very briefly at -7c at PDX. Wasn't long ago that it was showing -10c or -11c.

 

This cold definitely got watered down in the home stretch of this thing. With how that weekend system is looking, decent chance most of us get out of this airmass with nothing to show for it. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I wasn't referring to your post in particular. Just a general vibe and trend on here. Happens a lot, with lots of posters.

Some posters more than others. I’m still enjoying this current pattern even if it isn’t the most impressive cold I’ve seen. Looks fairly interesting in the mid to long range after this too. Some people are glass half empty I’m a glass half full type of guy.

[Front Ranger]

Kind of funny that a lot of places west of the Cascades will likely end up with a cooler than average November considering all of the warm maps that have been posted the last 4-5 weeks.

Will probably end up cooler from around OLM south, with near normal to a little above (at least SEA and BLI) further north.

 

But yeah, definitely not gonna be a warm month for the region.

[Omegaraptor]

The 12Z GFS ensembles have updated through day 13 on WB.

 

The 850mb temp mean clearly shows split flow in the 7-12 day period...

 

 

 

 

And is drier than normal for the next 10 days...

 

Notice how the dry anomalies cut off right at the OR/CA border.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6" in the yard here. Last time there was that much before the first week of December was in 2010.

 

There's varying amounts depending on where I put the ruler but I figured the average was 6". Spots up to 8-9" probably from the wind blown snow yesterday, and garbage bins have up to 5". 

 

 

 

 

 

Nice event for you guys. Very good snow event for much of SE Oregon too. 

[Front Ranger]

The 12z GFS has 850s bottoming out very briefly at -7c at PDX. Wasn't long ago that it was showing -10c or -11c.

 

This cold definitely got watered down in the home stretch of this thing. With how that weekend system is looking, decent chance most of us get out of this airmass with nothing to show for it.

Sure, I get that some models really moderated down the home stretch, which is always disappointing. That's a little different than what I'm talking about. Though I guess they can go together if you still had your hopes up from model runs 4-5 days before the event.

[TacomaWaWx]

We had 4 freezes in October, we’ve had 0 this November in Tacoma. We should finish the month with 3-4 freezes but still having more freezes in October than November is highly unusual. I hadn’t recorded a temp below 34 degrees in the last 15 years in October before this year...very interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of funny that a lot of places west of the Cascades will likely end up with a cooler than average November considering all of the warm maps that have been posted the last 4-5 weeks.

 

Places with any elevation or east of the Cascades will be above though. Through yesterday K-Falls is running a +4.5 departure. The last few days of the month will really cut into that though. 

[TT-SEA]

Upper level maps do not reflect surface temps in the cold season. Upper levels tell a different story... and those maps were accurate. Upper levels have been warm overall since late October.