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11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm


Tom

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Mother nature just doesn't want to stop as another powerhouse storm is forecast to target the northern portion of our Sub after smashing records out west.  A major trough has been unleashing its fury out on the west coast.  As this system slowly ejects out into the Upper MW on Black Friday, holiday shoppers will be dealing with snow and how much blocking will be present to help aid and funnel enough cold air for our members up north that may potential add to the ever building Glacier.

 

Today's 12z Euro's snowfall map is quite amazing as this storm will leave a footprint of snow all the way from the mountains of Cali, through the Rockies, and into the GL's region.

 

 

Let's discuss....

 

sn10_acc.conus.png

 

 

sn10_acc.us_nc.png

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

There may even be some severe wx potential out in the Plains with this system...another fascinating Beast of a storm that may in fact become another Blizzard for the Dakotas region.

 

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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There may even be some severe wx potential out in the Plains with this system...another fascinating Beast of a storm that may in fact become another Blizzard for the Dakotas region.

 

So much for my call that the action would shift east and limit that region to NW flow clippers, lol. 

 

Kudos to NOAA tho:

 

20191121 NOAA 3-mos Precip Anoms.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, a winter storm warning for storm #1 expired at noon. 3 hours later a new winter storm watch issued for storm #2. Wild times

 

:lol:  Livin' Large up there, aren't we??  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Right now looking like a front end thump of snow, turning to a mix, then rain, then back to another thump of snow. Might be the kitchen sink storm for the metro. Inside 40 hours from the start already.

 

Not too many hrs spent in between front snow and back tho, at least per 18z NAM.  NWMI "just" out of range at 84 hrs. Hoping NAM/GEM can lead the way and other models start to get a bit colder Saturday evening/night. As is, looking like RN or Mix turns to SN sometime overnight. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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From MPX....you know why it doesn’t pass the smell test? Because it stinks. Plain and painfully simple.

 

One should be skeptical

of the GFS, if not for the sole reason it is a pronounced

outlier, but that it`s stacked low pressure system is further

south and yet its dry slot is still further north than the other

models. It just doesn`t pass the smell test.

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This should be a fun (and messy) storm to track and experience. That dry slot and warm tongue are going to create a nightmare for MSP to deal with likely until showtime. To top it off I am sitting really close to where they are thinking might be the all snow vs mix line (if I am reading correctly). It is always nice to have the Euro on your side. Full speed ahead!

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Winter weather advisory issued for here for tomorrow for up to 1" of snow(where I have seen that before) and a little bit of icing. Then after that it's rain and more rain with temps in the 40s to near 50 for Friday and Saturday.

 

Husker game looks rainy with melting snow. So at least Iowa winning won't be the only nasty thing happening on Friday. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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@ Niko & Matt

 

Heads up SEMI Peeps!

 

CPC now putting you in the game:

 

20191127 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just reading thru WSWatches out of MSP and yikes, there's some serious wording. 12+ inches and 45 mph winds! This will be possible for areas that can avoid a mix/rain encroachment. Gonna be really close call around the Twin Cities proper. Per their text, the all snow line would be roughly north of this line:

 

20191127 MSP mix line.JPG

 

 

Already, the effects of this system in the Rockies is being felt:

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
PONDERA COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1230 PM MST WED NOV 27 2019

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE PONDERA
COUNTY SHERIFF AND PONDERA COUNTY DISASTER AND EMERGENCY SERVICES.

AS OF NOON, WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 27TH, PONDERA COUNTY HAS DECLARED
AN EMERGENCY TRAVEL ONLY ORDER FOR U.S. HIGHWAY 89. HEAVY SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW HAVE CREATED SEVERE DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE AREA.
THIS ORDER FOR EMERGENCY TRAVEL ONLY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON ON THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28TH, UNLESS INDICATED OTHERWISE.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Niko & Matt

 

Heads up SEMI Peeps!

 

CPC now putting you in the game:

 

attachicon.gif20191127 hazards_d3_7_contours.png

:o

 

Glitch potential!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The surface track of this storm is very unusual.  Can anyone else remember a large storm system entering the CONUS near Baja, cutting northeast hard until hitting a brick wall near SD/NE then drifting E/SE to the mid atlantic?  I know this thing is pretty much going to turn into a cut off upper level low but still seems very strange to me.

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APX buying into this system much more than yesterday.

 

Tidbits-

 

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Saturday)

Issued at 403 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2019

...When will the Second Storm Hit?...

High Impact Weather Potential...The start of the post-Thanksgiving
weekend storm will begin sometime on Saturday. (Winds and snow)   
High Impact Weather Potential...The backside of the second system will continue into Sunday with significant accumulations possible.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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0z NAM went back to just very briefly changing to rain and then immediately back to snow for the MSP metro. Gonna be riding the line here. But sometimes you gotta do that to win big.

 

NAM's done quite well at these ranges. Way better than the GFS. I would lean on it's portrayal much sooner than most globals actually. Hopefully, they don't touch it and break it. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The surface track of this storm is very unusual. Can anyone else remember a large storm system entering the CONUS near Baja, cutting northeast hard until hitting a brick wall near SD/NE then drifting E/SE to the mid atlantic? I know this thing is pretty much going to turn into a cut off upper level low but still seems very strange to me.

I cannot. I was thinking the same thing days ago when the models really started to hone in on that track.

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Oh Canada! 

 

Oh Canada...jpg

 

GEM continues to drop a hammer on NMI overnight Sat into Sun morning. If anything, it's even more robust and a bit south from prior runs:

 

20191128 0z GEM h84.png

 

And in virtual lock-step is the NAM at same range:

 

20191128 0z nam h84 Surf.png 

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This system will bring a lot of wind again for SEMI. Wow..this is turning out to be a very windy week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Happy Thanksgiving everybody!  I hope all of you have a happy and safe holiday weekend.  Here is the EPS snow mean for this weekend, good luck

1575309600-ol5h6ZDqeWg.png

.1575309600-Ums4nWXcPNs.png

1575309600-CorINlEUvuw.png

 

Thanks for this Clinton! Have a great TGD  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like a C MN smash job. 12z NAM showing precip here for over 2 straight days.

 

Treats Traverse well too. 15 hrs and still snowing at end of run! Wish they would just trash the GFS already. It just muddies the waters for forecasting offices imho. Good luck up there and have a great Thanksgiving Day! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Treats Traverse well too. 15 hrs and still snowing at end of run! Wish they would just trash the GFS already. It just muddies the waters for forecasting offices imho. Good luck up there and have a great Thanksgiving Day!

 

Thanks buddy. Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone else on this board! And good luck up north with this storm. Should be rocking for a while.

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The CMC would bring a little snow down here Sunday, that would be fantastic.

Indeed...it will bring ya into the Christmas Holiday Spirit. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Might be a close call for us too, Niko! 12z NAM further south than Canadian was last night. I like that trend.

We will see. TWC has my forecast for Sat nite rain and 33F for a low. We have a shot. Lets see what the models hold for tanite and especially tomorrow. Too bad blocking is not strong enough.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The Omaha dome is in full effect this morning

Happy Thanksgiving to all Weather Forums peeps and their families, from my family to yours! 

 

It's the Missouri River effect this morning... it looks like all the returns are drying up as they approach the river. Hoping to at least see some flurries out of this, but I am not sure we even see that at this point. 

 

After last Winter's amazing run, it seems like we can't catch a break so far this year with snow and wintry weather in East Central Nebraska... thankfully it's not even technically Winter yet LOL.

 

Bring on the freezing rain/rain tomorrow, its going to make the Nebraska/Iowa game fun to watch. I think the Huskers might be able to scare the Hawkeyes again this year. 

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Trends overall today have been ticking south with the snow. And if the GEM happens to be right....parts of MN get buried. GFS is in absolute la-la land.

I have a feeling you guys up in the MSP area are going to get buried by this system after an early bout of rain/sleet/snow mix... enjoy it up there! 

 

Next time around feel free to send some snow down to your snow-starved brothers and sisters to the south LOL! 

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Getting some sleet this morning.

Looks like you might be going into a transition period to snow eventually.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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