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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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2005-06? Don't think so. Dulles had a single storm that melted in three days.

Oh, I thought you were talking about 2006/07, which had an even stronger jet.

 

As for 2005/06, that snowstorm in Feb 2006 was 14” of wet paste that fell in 20hrs here. Thunder/lightning and 4.5” in 90mins from 1AM to 2:30AM. One of the top-10 storms of the 21st century here.

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Oh, I thought you were talking about 2006/07, which had an even stronger jet.

 

As for 2005/06, that snowstorm in Feb 2006 was 14” of wet paste that fell in 20hrs here. Thunder/lightning and 4.5” in 90mins from 1AM to 2:30AM. One of the top-10 storms of the 21st century here.

06/07 was a solid winter out here. Strong jets rock. Historic Rain storm. Historic windstorm. Historic snow storm. 2 bouts of arctic air. Fun stuff.
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What the hell is that supposed to be.... Oh no, did I sizeist shame you, or whatever the woke lunatics say. I will never, ever use any of the new stupid trendy terminology like body shaming, fat blaming, food insecurity, or any of the other stupid nonsense. Zero political correctness from me. :)

 

00z GFS in 1 hour 43 minutes

How about we just say PAWG? That would hit a bunch of triggers.

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Oh, I thought you were talking about 2006/07, which had an even stronger jet.

 

As for 2005/06, that snowstorm in Feb 2006 was 14” of wet paste that fell in 20hrs here. Thunder/lightning and 4.5” in 90mins from 1AM to 2:30AM. One of the top-10 storms of the 21st century here.

 

Amazing. The Mid Atlantic is epic and crushes it with zonal flow. I'm booking tickets for the Chevy Chase 2030 Winter Olympics.

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Amazing. The Mid Atlantic is epic and crushes it with zonal flow. I'm booking tickets for the Chevy Chase 2030 Winter Olympics.

Getting a good storm track is 60% of the battle here. It’s very straightforward. More jet = more storm chances. Even if most fail and it’s warmer in the averages, the odds increase that we eventually hit one.

 

Snowfall here is positively correlated with the strength of the Pacific jet, and significantly so. Winters with no jet can be frigid (see 1976/77, 1980/81, or for a more recent example, 2017/18) but if there are no storms or weak suppressed waves, we miss out. All of those winters sucked for snow here, despite the relentless cold.

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Getting a good storm track is 60% of the battle here. It’s very straightforward. More jet = more storm chances. Even if most fail and it’s warmer in the averages, the odds increase that we eventually hit one.

 

Snowfall here is positively correlated with the strength of the Pacific jet, and significantly so. Winters with no jet can be frigid (see 1976/77, 1980/81, or for a more recent example, 2017/18) but if there are no storms or weak suppressed waves, we miss out. All of those winters sucked for snow here, despite the cold.

 

Lol @ silly people rooting for a strong jet. There's nothing remotely exciting about that.

 

Gonna be a looong winter if you're hanging your hat on that s**t.

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Lol @ silly people rooting for a strong jet. There’s nothing remotely exciting about that.

 

Gonna be a looong winter if you’re hanging your hat on that s**t.

*In the PNW*.

 

It bothers the hell out of me how many of you are willing to sacrifice yourselves so it can snow in the mountains. Seriously, it drives me f**king nuts.

 

Screw the mountains.

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*In the PNW*.

 

It bothers the hell out of me how many of you are willing to sacrifice yourselves so it can snow in the mountains. Seriously, it drives me f**king nuts.

 

Screw the mountains.

What?
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looked pretty up there. Do you always stop at the same spot?

Yes, I meet up with one of our rescue partners from Okanogan to transfer a few of their stray dogs that nobody has claimed over to our facility to be altered and put up for adoption. Skykomish is the meet up point.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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What?

Maybe I’d feel differently if I lived there, but I cannot imagine myself feeling happy about drizzle imby because some hill 75 miles away is seeing snow.

 

That would drive me nuts. And to actively root for such an outcome? FFS, do you want me to stroke out?

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Yes... we have had some major issues with real trees.     Including having to replace the carpet.    Much easier this way.

 

As much as fake trees are frowned upon they can be used multiple times, had the same two trees for a decade and a lot less maintenance/money spent. Plus ours have these cool lights that change color while on. ;)

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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38F and very foggy in downtown Springfield.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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A few things to note. I guess.

 

Ah hah! I found something remotely interesting! The past 12 GFS runs centered at HR 36 (5 AM Friday). Note the trend to shift the low further south and west. This results in absolutely NOTHING fun, cold, fun, or interesting though! :D You're welcome.

12 4 19 00z GFS 500mb HA 12 runs.gif

 

 

00z GEM at Day 4 certainly strengthens the ridge sooner than the GFS. Just 12-24 hours sooner and a nice shot of cold air would spill back into Eastern Washington.

 

This frames shows that well. Looking at the 500mb contours in BC you can see the flow almost backing to the southwest. It doesn't due to the ridge just a notch too far east and a lack of tilt pulling the base of the ridge further offshore. Nonetheless, this is a trend to watch for the next 2 days as well as the energy west of the ridge. A stronger Aleutian low might retrograde the Gulf of Alaska trough some.

500h_anom.na.png

 

 

This demonstrates that well. The past 2 GEM runs at HR 102. If that trend were to continue, we'll be in business for backdoor cold. IF the EURO shows this I'll have renewed optimism for at least a cold pool to develop. Do not rule that out yet.

12 4 19 00z GEM 500mb HA 2 runs.gif

 

 

00z ECMWF in 40 minutes

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*In the PNW*.

 

It bothers the hell out of me how many of you are willing to sacrifice yourselves so it can snow in the mountains. Seriously, it drives me f**king nuts.

 

Screw the mountains.

Our summer water supply depends on mountain snowpack. Not to mention winter sports, and of course the overall health of the ecosystem.

 

Aren’t you the one who always used to harp on about how rain was an ecological payday or whatever. Or was that just made up drivel meant to annoy Tim? ;)

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Maybe I’d feel differently if I lived there, but I cannot imagine myself feeling happy about drizzle imby because some hill 75 miles away is seeing snow.

 

That would drive me nuts. And to actively root for such an outcome? FFS, do you want me to stroke out?

Generally a strong jet doesn’t equate to a “drizzly” pattern
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I apologize if I offended anyone with my comments earlier. My wife and I had a discussion about the Peleton ad. She said she thought it was fine. Had no issues with it. Yes, she is a bigger lady. She was when I met her, I am very attracted to her, if I came off insulting or disrespecting her I didn't mean it. 

 

I knew you meant well with the comment. There's not much else left in the dictionary you could have used that isn't directly vulgar to another person  :ph34r:

The last word is probably overweight (not of the average weight), that one could be interpreted differently as well in conversations. I mean, doctors use these words too.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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37/29 today, with frog 24 hours straight! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Maybe I’d feel differently if I lived there, but I cannot imagine myself feeling happy about drizzle imby because some hill 75 miles away is seeing snow.

That would drive me nuts. And to actively root for such an outcome? FFS, do you want me to stroke out?

First off, our local “hill” is almost double the height of anything you have east of the Rockies. On a clear day, I get views of many other “hills” bigger than anything on your side of the Rockies. ;)

 

Well obviously the best outcome is that both the lowlands and mountains get dumped on. But in the event that this does not happen (which is the vast majority of the time), the mountain seeing snow is far preferable to nowhere getting snow. It’s kind of where our water supply comes from.

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The orchardists and farmers are totally dependent on irrigation water. If we truly had a mountain snow drought, it would be a huge economic disaster for the state and especially for my area. Washington exports fruit all over the world. We are by far the #1 producer of apples in the U.S. (60% of all apples eaten in the U.S. are from Washington) and by far the #1 producer of pears, also 60% of all pears eaten in the U.S. [...]

 

And then there's the salmon, who also depend on there being abundant water in our rivers. And the orcas in the Salish Sea, which depend on the salmon. Remember, Phil: we don't get much rain in the summer here. Melting snow is what keeps our rivers from drying to trickles.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Yeah in simple terms mountain snow is critical in this region, Phil. No snow=Bad.

 

Opinions >>> facts.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Share on other sites

06/07 was a solid winter out here. Strong jets rock. Historic Rain storm. Historic windstorm. Historic snow storm. 2 bouts of arctic air. Fun stuff.

 

I lived in Oklahoma during that winter. It was pretty great out there too. Huge snow event to close November, sub-zero lows to start December, a lot of arctic air with snow and ice in January and February. 

 

Came back to Oregon for Christmas break and we had the big 12/14 wind storm and then some nice fake cold afterward. I hear January 07 was not half bad in NW Oregon either. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The orchardists and farmers are totally dependent on irrigation water. If we truly had a mountain snow drought, it would be a huge economic disaster for the state and especially for my area. Washington exports fruit all over the world. We are by far the #1 producer of apples in the U.S. (60% of all apples eaten in the U.S. are from Washington) and by far the #1 producer of pears, also 60% of all pears eaten in the U.S.

 

Agriculture accounts for $51 billion – or 13 percent - of Washington’s yearly economic activity

 

160,000 Washington jobs are tied to agriculture – more than Microsoft and Boeing combined

 

Washington state produces more than 300 different crops – second only to California

 

The number of wineries in Washington state has tripled over the past decade

 

State leaders must ensure agricultural productivity is a priority and considered equally with other key industries when setting tax, regulatory and economic policy

In 2014, the state exported $16 billion worth of food and agricultural products to people around the world

 

So yeah, mountain snow is pretty important.

 

I am NOT trying to put you down, Phil. Just trying to educate you. I certainly would not expect you to automatically know these things since you dont live here.

 

In college we always snacked on apples during our baseball games. They were Washington apples and so I got the guys interested in Washington apples (This was out in Oklahoma.), I did a lot of research and then during the games when we were killing time out in the bullpen I would drop some Washington apple facts on everyone, I was definitely the team nerd, but everyone got kind of into it. I was something of a pro bono spokesman for Washington apples, so delicious.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just got home from a long day at the office. I take it the 00z was not stellar. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Eugene pulled off a 40/32 today for a -5 departure. SLE had a respectable 49/30. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I lived in Oklahoma during that winter. It was pretty great out there too. Huge snow event to close November, sub-zero lows to start December, a lot of arctic air with snow and ice in January and February.

 

Came back to Oregon for Christmas break and we had the big 12/14 wind storm and then some nice fake cold afterward. I hear January 07 was not half bad in NW Oregon either.

That was one of my favorite winters to date...It had everything that a weather enthusiast could ask for. Massive rain event in early November, massive snow event at the end of November, massive windstorm in December, a nice arctic/snow event in January...and a little bonus snow in February and March. Would love to relive that one.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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PDX was 50/38 and HIO was 48/35.

 

Looks like Eugene was stuck in inversion soup all day today.

 

I enjoyed the fog soup today. I wanted to swim in it.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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