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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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To all those NAYSAYERS. The models have been overworked all week and today they are protesting like Antifa. Don't worry they will show back up to work monday morning and continue the goodies and scoobie snacks for all us SNOW lovers. Just relax and sip some green tea and ponder in the meantime. ;)

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and by the 5th the op is warmer than the mean... weird day!

 

By the 6th the op is 7c warmer than the mean.

 

Still some potential to wishcast with!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m getting the feeling this is one of those rare situations where we don’t have a firm grasp on what the weather will be doing several days from now.

holy sh*t no way!

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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About the same as last run, or drastically worse?

Currently I’m here in getting caught up this morning.  

 

Tim spoke and everything tumbled a bit precipitation wise but then he added a positive as well.

DJ keeping me motivated! 

oh my! Do I read on.....what’s ahead?!? My Saturday is pending on the outcome ........  :)  or  :angry:

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GFS ensembles are actually slightly IMPROVED.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guys the ensembles look almost exactly the same as the 06Z. I'm not worried at all.

Yea. If we took away a couple orgasmic gfs operational runs there hasn’t been much support for any major arctic blasts anyway. Cool and active with low snow levels and some potential for something better.
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but on the 8th the op is Kolder than the mean. Face it, winter is over.

 

Hey I am allowed to wishcast too. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Working on January for you guys. Here is what I have so far!

 

Snow Wizard: 30" of snow, northerly gradients through the Puget Sound. PERFECT for delivering cold air!

DJ Droppin: 80mph East winds for dayz

Jesse: Negative departures EVERY day.

TT-SEA: Warming offshore winds from the pass

TWL: An arctic express

Timmy: Lots of sunny golf in Hawaii

Dewey: Increasing sun angles. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yea. If we took away a couple orgasmic gfs operational runs there hasn’t been much support for any major arctic blasts anyway. Cool and active with low snow levels and some potential for something better.

maybe itll to be one of those times where the precip has to hit at the right time of day for it to snow down at the lower elevations. Kinda like Feb 2018. Did wet snow several days in the afternoon time but wasn't cold enough to accumulate until nighttime. Melted by noon the next day.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Working on January for you guys. Here is what I have so far!

 

Snow Wizard: 30" of snow, northerly gradients through the Puget Sound. PERFECT for delivering cold air!

DJ Droppin: 80mph East winds for dayz

Jesse: Negative departures EVERY day.

TT-SEA: Warming offshore winds from the pass

TWL: An arctic express

Timmy: Lots of sunny golf in Hawaii

Dewey: Increasing sun angles.

 

Those are rookie numbers. It's not good enough.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Working on January for you guys. Here is what I have so far!

 

Snow Wizard: 30" of snow, northerly gradients through the Puget Sound. PERFECT for delivering cold air!

DJ Droppin: 80mph East winds for dayz

Jesse: Negative departures EVERY day.

TT-SEA: Warming offshore winds from the pass

TWL: An arctic express

Timmy: Lots of sunny golf in Hawaii

Dewey: Increasing sun angles.

Timmy and Dewey’s have the best chance of verifying.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Is it too early for a drink? At least it's sunny out.

 

Beautiful crisp morning in the south valley.  35F in downtown Springfield.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Those are rookie numbers. It's not good enough.

 

It is going to be tough to pull off the 54 degree low for Tim, and maintain negative anomalies for Jesse.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Beautiful crisp morning in the south valley.  35F in downtown Springfield.

 

32 here. Because of how the terrain is, the sun does not clear the hill behind my house until about 10am this time of year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Also to note. Several ensemble members play peak a poo with the -10C line on the 12z for PDX. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EUG Ensemble 12-28 12z.png

 

Still a majority of members that get to the Magic -8 ball down here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12z ensembles are the best yet. :(

 

Absolutely outstanding news!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The king ready to sing this morning.  Buckle up!!!

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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Cross cascade gradients would have been a better one for TWL.

True. That could have connected well with the warming offshore winds for Tim. 

 

I want him to be able to enjoy a beer on his deck in shorts and a t-shirt at 3am!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It would be a consolation prize and disappointment but at the least there will finally be some mountain snow here.  It's crucial for stream flows in the summer.  The fish (salmon smolt) take a beating when we don't get stream flow.  Everybody gets a ribbon, right? 

It's a tough climate we live in for cold and snow for most of us.  If it were easy to get cold and snow our ave temps would be lower and our ave snow totals would behigher.  It's complicated to get all the right pieces aligning and moving at the right times.  Like many here most of us have been burned so many times,  Even inside 2 days our hearts have been torn out and the burns go deep.  I'll never leave the burn center and the scars are many.  I've model rode like most here.  I still do to some amount of it now but have learned the hard way to TRY to wait to get inside maybe 5, even 4 and better yet 2 days but it's tough not to give in.  It's easier for me to catch elusive steelhead and stubborn chinook salmon than to wait for the "score window" for cold and snow.  Yet I keep chasing the fish and I keep hoping for cold and snow.  It's not in our climate's DNA for the goods to happen as much as we want.  It's a sweet gift when it does happen. 

I'm going to chase steelhead today and I probably won't get one as the rivers are yet again low and clear. I'll come home and maybe the models will tease me and maybe they will disappoint again.   Patience wins the day usually.

I'll fish again and I'll look at the models again  .  .  .and again, and again.  .  .  .

I missed 1950 by 6months when I was born.  All my dad used to talk about. 

I got to see some good ones (either good cold or snow or both) like '57, '68, '72 (I think it was '78 the lower Clackamas froze over and I walked across it at High Rocks in Oregon City),  '89, and my favorite was '08.  I'm heading towards 70 and I'd love to squeeze in a few more good salmon and steelhead seasons and a few more awesome winters.  Maybe I can have both in the same season.  

Dec. '13 my creek froze over (locals say it was over 25 years since that happened last ) and had a couple mornings of 8f in that stretch.  I'm still a bitter man missing out on the big snow in Portland in '17.  Just 12 miles east and I got 4" as opposed to 18" my mother in law got.  The great winters have been far and few between but I still hope, Hope for most anything is good for the soul.

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It would be a consolation prize and disappointment but at the least there will finally be some mountain snow here.  It's crucial for stream flows in the summer.  The fish (salmon smolt) take a beating when we don't get stream flow.  Everybody gets a ribbon, right? 

It's a tough climate we live in for cold and snow for most of us.  If it were easy to get cold and snow our ave temps would be lower and our ave snow totals would behigher.  It's complicated to get all the right pieces aligning and moving at the right times.  Like many here most of us have been burned so many times,  Even inside 2 days our hearts have been torn out and the burns go deep.  I'll never leave the burn center and the scars are many.  I've model rode like most here.  I still do to some amount of it now but have learned the hard way to TRY to wait to get inside maybe 5, even 4 and better yet 2 days but it's tough not to give in.  It's easier for me to catch elusive steelhead and stubborn chinook salmon than to wait for the "score window" for cold and snow.  Yet I keep chasing the fish and I keep hoping for cold and snow.  It's not in our climate's DNA for the goods to happen as much as we want.  It's a sweet gift when it does happen. 

I'm going to chase steelhead today and I probably won't get one as the rivers are yet again low and clear. I'll come home and maybe the models will tease me and maybe they will disappoint again.   Patience wins the day usually.

I'll fish again and I'll look at the models again  .  .  .and again, and again.  .  .  .

I missed 1950 by 6months when I was born.  All my dad used to talk about. 

I got to see some good ones (either good cold or snow or both) like '57, '68, '72 (I think it was '78 the lower Clackamas froze over and I walked across it at High Rocks in Oregon City),  '89, and my favorite was '08.  I'm heading towards 70 and I'd love to squeeze in a few more good salmon and steelhead seasons and a few more awesome winters.  Maybe I can have both in the same season.  

Dec. '13 my creek froze over (locals say it was over 25 years since that happened last ) and had a couple mornings of 8f in that stretch.  I'm still a bitter man missing out on the big snow in Portland in '17.  Just 12 miles east and I got 4" as opposed to 18" my mother in law got.  The great winters have been far and few between but I still hope, Hope for most anything is good for the soul.

 

They say you cannot live for more than 30 seconds without hope. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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