December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Could end up quite a bit worse than that.

Wasn’t that one showing a 1950 redux and then the rug got pulled like 3-4 days out as opposed to 7?

[Dave]

Wow the way the forum is this morning it would appear that we are completely screwed and we are looking at split flow hell again. Then the ensembles were posted and they looked pretty d**n good...And we are still a week out from the start of this whole thing...Good lord. Pattern change is pretty much a given and that is what matters at this stage. Relax and enjoys the current lovely morning. We are heading to Costco to stock up!

It's at least partially your fault. You never should have attached the plow blade until there were flakes in the air.

[Perturbed Member]

00z 

 

12z

 

 

Heading to the liquor store, brb. 

[Front Ranger]

On a positive note... I just went down to the post office in sunny North Bend in shorts and a t-shirt and was not cold at all. And could show off my golden Hawaiian tan. Feeling rejuvenated after a 2-week dose of natural vitamin D.

 

As long as you're tan, I don't think anyone cares too much about getting snow.

[Dave]

The KING has spoken.

 

That's more like a warm hand.

[Deweydog]

Front loaders full of weenies!!!

 

#atf

[FroYoBro]

On a positive note... I just went down to the post office in sunny North Bend in shorts and a t-shirt and was not cold at all. And could show off my golden Hawaiian tan. Feeling rejuvenated after a 2-week dose of natural vitamin D.

gay

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even the mountains are going to suffer. 

[Timmy]

On a positive note... I just went down to the post office in sunny North Bend in shorts and a t-shirt and was not cold at all. And could show off my golden Hawaiian tan. Feeling rejuvenated after a 2-week dose of natural vitamin D.

he’s back!

[Jesse]

[Esquimalt]

At least culver Josh isn’t here to troll us about this!

[snow_wizard]

While the 12z ECMWF is disappointing in showing a delay fro the arrival of the cold weather it presents a very real possibility of an AR to Arctic blast scenario.  Those can be really fun.  In a broader sense I think serious cold by Jan 10 is a good possibility.  Out of the three big ensembles (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) the GFS continues to be the most enemic with the 500mb amplification over the GOA.  This is probably in response to it having the weakest MJO signal of the 3.  The GEM and ECMWF ensembles both advertise a strong Maritime Continent MJO emerging during week 2.

 

In summery we have a legit shot at the being the January of the century so far.

[HighlandExperience]

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF operational is back to dryshit by the end of the run.

 

It's actually poised to drop the hammer on us IMO.  The blocking over the Western GOA as shown by surface pressure anoms is crazy.  The big question on this for a while has been how many tries this will take to finally get it right.

[MossMan]

At least culver Josh isn’t here to troll us about this!

We will never know how that final conference call went...

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and green here too... just a little colder.

 

[Front Ranger]

Front loaders full of weenies!!!

 

#atf

 

[MossMan]

Just told my wife that winter has been cancelled. That should at least bring back 500ft snow levels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

While the 12z ECMWF is disappointing in showing a delay fro the arrival of the cold weather it presents a very real possibility of an AR to Arctic blast scenario.  Those can be really fun.  In a broader sense I think serious cold by Jan 10 is a good possibility.  Out of the three big ensembles (GFS, ECMWF, and GEM) the GFS continues to be the most enemic with the 500mb amplification over the GOA.  This is probably in response to it having the weakest MJO signal of the 3.  The GEM and ECMWF ensembles both advertise a strong Maritime Continent MJO emerging during week 2.

 

In summery we have a legit shot at the being the January of the century so far.

 

The 12z runs today were devastating, but they can reverse course just as easily. The CFS shows a major arctic outbreak 15-18th. 

[Front Ranger]

Just told my wife that winter has been cancelled. That should at least bring back 500ft snow levels.

 

Can't undo a jinx. Sorry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My wife is pretty happy about the 12z runs today. She says she had enough snow growing up in Klamath, and will enjoy the continued warmth.

[Omegaraptor]

It's actually poised to drop the hammer on us IMO.  The blocking over the Western GOA as shown by surface pressure anoms is crazy.  The big question on this for a while has been how many tries this will take to finally get it right.

Just extrapolate to Hour 246 and the mega arctic blast to rival January 1950 becomes clear.

[Deweydog]

Voice whispers:

 

If you extrapolate it, he will come. Ease his pain. Go the distance.

[snow_wizard]

Day 10 on the ECMWF is very interesting.  You can see the AR between the two high pressure complexes.  Arctic air stacks up on the north side of the AR.  If that slides SE which is likely given the looks of the progression from day 9 to day 10 we could get nailed.  That having been said it's still pretty possible we could already be into the cold by day 10.  This scenario is giving the models fits, but the big picture certainly looks cold.

 

 

[Dave]

Just told my wife that winter has been cancelled. That should at least bring back 500ft snow levels.

Take the plow off and mow your lawn. Pronto!

[snow_wizard]

Just extrapolate to Hour 246 and the mega arctic blast to rival January 1950 becomes clear.

 

Any one model run is meaningless as I'm sure you well know anyway.  I was just saying why that run wasn't a disaster if anyone thought it was.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z runs today were devastating, but they can reverse course just as easily. The CFS shows a major arctic outbreak 15-18th. 

 

Devastating?  The 12z GFS ensemble run was probably the best yet, but whatever.

[Jesse]

PDX could make a run at 50 today, as if to add insult to injury.

[snow_wizard]

This forum is absolutely mind blowing at times.  Literally nothing has changed in the big picture and yet winter is over now.

[TT-SEA]

It's actually poised to drop the hammer on us IMO.  The blocking over the Western GOA as shown by surface pressure anoms is crazy.  The big question on this for a while has been how many tries this will take to finally get it right.

 

 

It can (and probably will) change... but the ECMWF is not poised to do much of anything at day 10.   

 

[snow_wizard]

PDX could make a run at 50 today, as if to add insult to injury.

 

Have I missed something today?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This forum is absolutely mind blowing at times.  Literally nothing has changed in the big picture and yet winter is over now.

 

All of the operational runs were major steps back.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have I missed something today?

 

No operational run of any model shows anything good in the next 10 days.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX could make a run at 50 today, as if to add insult to injury.

That’s kind of normal. PDX got to 54 on this day in 1949. As we all know, that winter was a dud.

[TT-SEA]

Still coming out... but the EPS is definitely colder next weekend and beyond compared to the operational run.

 

Looks like cold onshore flow to me.  

[Jesse]

Have I missed something today?

Just some bad trends on the operational runs and typical timdrew trolling.

 

I’m not too torn up about it yet.

[MossMan]

If the models are still showing crap by Wednesday or so, then we can panic.

[Perturbed Member]

Just extrapolate to Hour 246 and the mega arctic blast to rival January 1950 becomes clear.

 

By hr 246 sun angles will have become too aggressive to support snow below 3000 ft. There's always next winter at least.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If the druncle is bad then we can start to get the forks out of the drawer.

[Deweydog]

By hr 246 sun angles will have become too aggressive to support snow below 3000 ft. There's always next winter at least.

Already higher today than they were yesterday at this time. Hard to imagine how high they might be in 10 days...