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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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Looking on wunderground, K-Falls has even had Novembers between 4-8" of precip. Nov 1995 had 8.78"! Impressive for an arid climate.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO).

 

So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. ;)

Okay. Jan 1950 neutral AO. January 1969 -AO. December 2008 +AO
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Okay. Jan 1950 neutral AO. January 1969 -AO. December 2008 +AO

Exactly. And how would those months have evolved had something perturbed the AO into another state beforehand? Probably quite differently.

 

The NPAC is a wide conduit line for meridional and vertical heat/mass/momentum flux exchange(s). Change the functional boundary conditions and you alter the progression of the waveguide/train.

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Courtesy of Brian Schmidt. Very sobering list.

 

78654688_2863403907011321_19679228378595

1978/79 wasn’t bad. Could be a sample size issue there as well since you have many different solar/QBO/warm pool states in there.

 

Definitely some QBO influence showing up, though.

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F*ck.

In a way, this winter is like a repeat of last winter except with an opposite QBO and muted (but similarly-structured) ENSO state. Otherwise there are no meaningful differences.

 

An interesting experiment.

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Exactly. And how would those months have evolved had something perturbed the AO into another state beforehand? Probably quite differently.

 

The NPAC is a wide conduit line for meridional and vertical heat/mass/momentum flux exchange(s). Change the functional boundary conditions and you alter the progression of the waveguide/train.

I think you lost me. It matters but it doesn’t
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Guest CulverJosh

Already 10-15” of snow widespread over here due to this splitting regime. I think the wildcard this year may be rapidly deepening lows. How often has the west coast experienced a 970 mb low that moved NW to SE in the last 50 years? Been a strange late fall.

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I do wonder sometimes what January 1950, January 1969 and December 2008 would have been like if things had been different...

What things?

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Nah. I’m good. We’ve had great months with both positive and negative AO. And I don’t see a correlation between the AO in the months preceding those

If you don’t want to learn, I can’t force you. Clearly you haven’t even attempted to consider the information I’ve presented.

 

You won’t be able to predict variations in the PNA/etc in advance if you’re relying on 1-to-1 correlations. News flash, the PNA is not an independent variable..it is dependent on factors that manipulate the NPAC wavetrain, including the antecedent state of the NAM/AO, amongst many others.

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About half the snow (8" at 9am) has melted! Let's thaw out these frogs.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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If you don’t want to learn, I can’t force you. Clearly you haven’t even attempted to consider the information I’ve presented.

 

You won’t be able to predict variations in the PNA/etc in advance if you’re relying on 1-to-1 correlations. News flash, the PNA is not an independent variable..it is dependent on factors that manipulate the NPAC wavetrain, including the antecedent state of the NAM/AO, amongst many others.

Just don’t have time now.
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ENSO, PDO, QBO, PNA, MJO, NAO, EPO, UHI, low solar, AO, AAM, GLAAM, MAWS

 

RcwZxNm.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Guest CulverJosh

I believe this is what the kids refer to as telling on yourself.

He tries to wow with these big words. I used to have a friend that did this. He was insecure and wanted my approval he was smart. I told him I will figure it out without all the strange words.

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I envy the people on the East Coast. They don't have to practically beg for active weather every year because it's practically guaranteed. I came across an easterner who was complaining about getting "only" 49 inches of snow last year. I about wanted to scream.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Guest CulverJosh

I envy the people on the East Coast. They don't have to practically beg for active weather every year because it's practically guaranteed. I came across an easterner who was complaining about getting "only" 49 inches of snow last year. I about wanted to scream.

There is a trade off. Trust me.

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We can’t get forecasts correct inside of 24 hours. It’s all gobbledygook in the long range.

 

You'd be surprised how well MFR did in the Jan 3-4 2017 snowstorm. Our local TV weather in Klamath is less than half great and I'm glad we have a NWS just 80 miles west of me.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Share on other sites

I envy the people on the East Coast. They don't have to practically beg for active weather every year because it's practically guaranteed. I came across an easterner who was complaining about getting "only" 49 inches of snow last year.

Don’t lump us in with those inland Northeast and New England crybabies. I average a measly 20”/yr and would be satisfied with anything over 12”. We’ve only had one brief snow shower so far this season, and that was back in early November (might see a little more tomorrow but barely conversational).

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