12/9 - 12/11 Upper MW/GL's System

[Tom]

00z Euro...looking like a refresher for you guys up north...keep stacking up the white gold and build the Glacier...

 

[Niko]

NOAA:

Precipitation associated with a low pressure system moving across
Hudson Bay/Ontario during the weekend will remain to the north, but
it will draw a frontal boundary southward into the central Great
Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This will set the stage for the next
round of precipitation as a strong southern stream jet crossing the
central/southern plains leads to development of a low pressure
system that will ride this frontal boundary northeastward into
Michigan. Temperatures in the 40s on Monday and the track of this
low will allow p-type for bulk of this event to fall as rain with a
chance to see a changeover to snow Monday night into Tuesday as
colder air begins to filter into Michigan behind a cold front.

An arctic airmass will then plunge into the Great Lakes Tuesday
through mid-week bringing well below average temperatures and lake
effect snow. Lead cold air advection with westerly winds will likely
bring lake effect snow showers from Lake Michigan into the area
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

[bud2380]

I'm very jealous of our friends up north, getting another blast of snow.  This looks to be a high ratio event with solid amounts of moisture and plenty of cold, leading to high ratios.  These have a tendency to over perform.  If the flakes are good sized, it can really pile up in these events.  Should be a fun start to your week next week.  

 

 

[jaster220]

I'm very jealous of our friends up north, getting another blast of snow.  This looks to be a high ratio event with solid amounts of moisture and plenty of cold, leading to high ratios.  These have a tendency to over perform.  If the flakes are good sized, it can really pile up in these events.  Should be a fun start to your week next week.  

 

 

 

Yep, that's what I loved about living in the snow belt of NMI. The season started fast, and there were a ton of snow chances between synoptic hits and LES. Fwiw, GEM's the odd model out per APX due to it's less than impressive calls on the last 2 storms.

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)

Issued at 231 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

 

High Impact Weather: Strong winter storm with strong winds

and multiple precipitation types possible

 

An elongated area of low pressure moves toward southern Michigan

through the morning. Discrepancies still abound with the intensity

and timing, but the general consensus is intensification as the low

moves into southeastern Ontario. P-type issues are likely through

the day Monday, and are heavily dependent on the choice of model

right now. The GFS is more bullish, both with the warm nose and the

very cold air undercutting it. The farther south/weaker Canadian

gives mainly light to moderate snow, with the Euro in between.

Given performance of the long range Canadian in the past few storm

systems, am leaning more toward a GFS/Euro blend. In fact the

latest Canadian has came more in line with the others: stronger

and more northwest. Arctic air pours into the Midwest and Great

Lakes following this system. 850mb temps drop into the negative

mid-20s, with single digits overnight lows looking more and more

likely. Deep troughing rotates over Hudson Bay Tuesday and

Wednesday, likely bringing multiple rounds of lake effect through

midweek. High pressure moves in late in the week, bringing quieter

conditions.

[jaster220]

NOAA:

Precipitation associated with a low pressure system moving across

Hudson Bay/Ontario during the weekend will remain to the north, but

it will draw a frontal boundary southward into the central Great

Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This will set the stage for the next

round of precipitation as a strong southern stream jet crossing the

central/southern plains leads to development of a low pressure

system that will ride this frontal boundary northeastward into

Michigan. Temperatures in the 40s on Monday and the track of this

low will allow p-type for bulk of this event to fall as rain with a

chance to see a changeover to snow Monday night into Tuesday as

colder air begins to filter into Michigan behind a cold front.

 

An arctic air mass will then plunge into the Great Lakes Tuesday

through mid-week bringing well below average temperatures and lake

effect snow. Lead cold air advection with westerly winds will likely

bring lake effect snow showers from Lake Michigan into the area

Tuesday through Tuesday night.

 

Going to have to watch this for a ground whitening potential which would go wonderfully with my holiday decorations. Generally, the SR models will better handle net effects of the LES and often totals will increase from what the lower resolution globals show. I may be posting in here more wrt that as we get into closer range. Wind direction is critical as always for mby. The other consideration is GRR's concern that moisture levels are nothing impressive, a fairly dry atmosphere to work with. Any positive outcome for my place will be leaning heavily on the extremely cold air and Delta-T's anticipated. Let's see if Lake Michigan can be a massive steaming over-filled bath tub and generate it's own impressive moisture.

[Niko]

Going to have to watch this for a ground whitening potential which would go wonderfully with my holiday decorations. Generally, the SR models will better handle net effects of the LES and often totals will increase from what the lower resolution globals show. I may be posting in here more wrt that as we get into closer range. Wind direction is critical as always for mby. The other consideration is GRR's concern that moisture levels are nothing impressive, a fairly dry atmosphere to work with. Any positive outcome for my place will be leaning heavily on the extremely cold air and Delta-T's anticipated. Let's see if Lake Michigan can be a massive steaming over-filled bath tub and generate it's own impressive moisture.

Indeed. That might be the only option left tbh....

[Niko]

This from Accu-Weather:

 

Cities that could receive enough snow to lightly coat roads include Omaha, Nebraska; Des Moines, Iowa; Milwaukee; Chicago; South Bend, Indiana; and Detroit and Lansing, Michigan.

[St Paul Storm]

3-6” in the point for Sunday night/Monday. Solid refresher incoming. Build that glacier!

[Clinton]

Here is the EPS mean and ensembles for this storm.

 

[jaster220]

Drives me NUTS how my office can have a FOOT or more of synoptic snow in parts of their coverage area twice and down-play the events, yet immediately hype a cold wave with graphics like this:

 

 

 

Nonetheless, they do have the risk of impacts stretching almost to mby so I'm inclined to keep following their pathetic rhetoric about how terrible and life-threatening a LES event can be. 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

In the fwiw category, the backside of this early week system is coming into NAM's range and I like immediately what I see. It has at least a few hours of decent wind direction and ongoing transition from RN/mix to snow that's trying to reach into Calhoun Cnty. 

 

[Niko]

In the fwiw category, the backside of this early week system is coming into NAM's range and I like immediately what I see. It has at least a few hours of decent wind direction and ongoing transition from RN/mix to snow that's trying to reach into Calhoun Cnty. 

 

20191207 0z NAM_Surf_fh78-84.gif

Do you see what I see down far south in the GOM, south of Brownsville, TX?! Could that be our crusher getting its act together............

[jaster220]

Do you see what I see down far south in the GOM, south of Brownsville, TX?! Could that be our crusher getting its act together............

 

I don't think so. That'd be too soon. That looks like the possible Tue-Wed deal for the Mid-Atlantic. The GOMEX Low forms next Friday iirc.

[Tom]

00z Euro keeps the snow farther north across the Northwoods primarily while MSP rides the southern edge...some of our members who have places up in N MN and N WI are going to benefit from this system.  The trails should be in great shape!

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Thanks for the updates! I’m out in South Carolina soaking up some rays and warmth before I return on Monday afternoon. I haven’t been able to follow this that closely so I appreciate the posts. Looks like MPX is now at 2-4”. Maybe that will help minimize any potential travel delays.

[Tom]

Thanks for the updates! I’m out in South Carolina soaking up some rays and warmth before I return on Monday afternoon. I haven’t been able to follow this that closely so I appreciate the posts. Looks like MPX is now at 2-4”. Maybe that will help minimize any potential travel delays.

Enjoy the rays!

[BrianJK]

00z Euro keeps the snow farther north across the Northwoods primarily while MSP rides the southern edge...some of our members who have places up in N MN and N WI are going to benefit from this system. The trails should be in great shape!

 

 

The businesses up there are happy. First time in many years that the trails will not only open on time, but also be in good/great condition. It’s a winter wonderland up there already and sure seems like it’s going to stay that way for a while.

[Tom]

The Northwoods cashin' in on this pattern...cash registers are ringin' up north!

 

 

[jaster220]

NAM has this interesting little "tail" swiping the western Sub. Is it legit? 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

2-4” of snow and up to 0.1” of ice in the point for overnight into tomorrow noon. WWA now covers the entire metro. Flying back home might be an issue at 1pm.

[jaster220]

As the RN changes to SN overnight Mon-Tue, many of the SR models continue to show at least a period of decent LES coming inland on a W or WNW wind. The WRF-NMM has a really sweet looking I-94 band

 

 

[Niko]

As the RN changes to SN overnight Mon-Tue, many of the SR models continue to show at least a period of decent LES coming inland on a W or WNW wind. The WRF-NMM has a really sweet looking I-94 band

 

20191209 0z wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_neus_h30.png

Right ova ya area amigo....looks good!

[jaster220]

Right ova ya area amigo....looks good!

 

I'm sure if it verifies it WILL look good. Except I plan to be asleep at that hour so I won't be seeing it  . I will, however, be chiseling it off my car windows as temps will be in the 20's by that hour 

[Niko]

I'm sure if it verifies it WILL look good. Except I plan to be asleep at that hour so I won't be seeing it  . I will, however, be chiseling it off my car windows as temps will be in the 20's by that hour 

[St Paul Storm]

Going to be a relatively brief but really intense burst of snow here. Monday morning commute buster for the metro. Heading up to 75F here in Savannah, GA today. Should be around 6F when I land at MSP.

[jaster220]

Odd look to this with the area of snow so far removed from both the SLP and it's rain shield. Things are too much like spring here south of the track. Very Nino-like feel to this current pattern. Kinda like winter's afraid to trespass down at this LAT. 

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Live traffic cams out of Omaha show a mini blizzard going on...it will be brief but what a score out of a system that is mainly in Minnesota. I don’t think the forecast was this aggressive for snow in Omaha??

 

Snow surprises are fun especially when they over achieve.

[Niko]

Odd look to this with the area of snow so far removed from both the SLP and it's rain shield. Things are too much like spring here south of the track. Very Nino-like feel to this current pattern. Kinda like winter's afraid to trespass down at this LAT. 

 

20191209 8am Surface.jpg

 

[jaster220]

Live traffic cams out of Omaha show a mini blizzard going on...it will be brief but what a score out of a system that is mainly in Minnesota. I don’t think the forecast was this aggressive for snow in Omaha??

 

Snow surprises are fun especially when they over achieve.

 

Glad you/somebody was noticing and posting on that. I saw it on models yesterday and mentioned whether it was legit? Nice surprise! 

 

Rippin weenie band!

 

[Grizzcoat]

Yep- just put in WWA mainly for short duration of blizzard like conditions. We'll take whatever we can get here in C.IA.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=IAZ059&warncounty=IAC049&firewxzone=IAZ059&local_place1=2

[james1976]

NAM has this interesting little "tail" swiping the western Sub. Is it legit?

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh24-35.gif

Yeah looks like its verifying. WWA across central Iowa for a quick burst of snow and wind.

[Bryan1117]

Live traffic cams out of Omaha show a mini blizzard going on...it will be brief but what a score out of a system that is mainly in Minnesota. I don’t think the forecast was this aggressive for snow in Omaha??

 

Snow surprises are fun especially when they over achieve.

Definitely an overachiever here this morning. Was out in the worst of it when I took my kids to school this morning, visibility was pretty low and had a really quick burst of heavy snow and strong winds (it was dark out like a summer thunderstorm when the heaviest band rolled through). It was definitely a slow go for the morning commute, perfect timing to wreak havoc on commuters around here. 

 

It looks like we might have picked up about an inch of snow from this system as well... that's a winner in my book considering how slow this Winter has started around here. 

[Bryan1117]

Yeah looks like its verifying. WWA across central Iowa for a quick burst of snow and wind.

Most definitely legit... even though it's a very quick hitter (a burst of snow for about an hour, that's it). 

[FarmerRick]

we got 1/2" at most in west Omaha

 

Someone must have left a window open on the dome...

 

[Clinton]

we got 1/2" at most in west Omaha

 

Someone must have left a window open on the dome...

 

   

[james1976]

Snowing hard!

[james1976]

I've just been put in a WWA until 1pm for near blizzard conditions. Quick hitter though so only an inch at best. Nice to see though! Cars and rooftops are white already.

[Bryan1117]

I've just been put in a WWA until 1pm for near blizzard conditions. Quick hitter though so only an inch at best. Nice to see though! Cars and rooftops are white already.

Glad to see that the snow band held together for you guys out in Iowa. The sun is out and shining here, however it is still windy with snow still blowing around some, and temps are in the upper teens, brrrr! 

 

I am really surprised that the local NWS offices in Omaha and Des Moines didn't use the new "Snow Squall Warning" option for a headline... this event surely fits that category, am I right?

[Iowawx]

The HRRR has the band of snow that is in Central Iowa right now falling apart by the time it gets here. I am not expecting much if any snow from this. 

 

The cold front has moved through here. It was 41 degrees at 10:00am and at 11:00am it is now 33 degrees. Winds have also really picked up as well.

[james1976]

Pounding here! Snowing sideways. Definitely looks like winter! Maybe half inch so far.