Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Folks, will this be the first major snowstorm of the season that shares the wealth??? It's now beginning to look pretty darn good that a lot of our members from the central Plains/MW/Lower GL's are in the vicinity of a potential major snowstorm. Surprisingly, the GFS/GEFS have been leading the way with this storm, although, one can argue the Euro flashed this storm potential on one run at Day 9 but then lost it and suppressed it but now is coming back to life with this storm. Let's discuss.... While there are several different solutions to this potential storm track, the GFS/GEFS has been steadfast of developing a storm system coming out of the 4 corners region and entering the "slot" and digging deep into the S Plains and shooting up NE into the OHV. See animation below....this has been on of the most common storm tracks of the season. 00z GEFS showing some decent grouping near the OHV.... Big time increase in the snow shield across the Plains/MW region... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 00z EPS finally caved (yes, it's odd saying this)...but gotta give kuddos to the american model on this one...confidence is growing now that we are inside 5 days on this one and the operational/ensembles are painting a good chance for a large scale storm system. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 06z GFS...this run was a bit whacky but showing the signal.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 ^- agree. two waves of energy with the second being more robust and SE of the first one. I don't buy it. I think more than normal of variations in guidance awaits us on this one... 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 maybe this should go in the DEC thread- but gonna post it here because it ultimately deals with this system and snowfall but also not buying the 06Z GFS as it has it -13F for 6AM on Thursday the 19th for DSM (just after said event)-- Euro has 28F. What's 41F degrees at day 8ish or 9ish? What's weird is that one would think the suppressed Euro would have it colder than 28F. More moving parts next week than normal imo. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 00z Canadian.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 EPS mean and ensembles look nice. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 EPS mean and ensembles look nice. D**n, that looks much better...the juice potential is picking up! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 d**n, that looks much better...the juice potential is picking up!It is I may have to up my expectations even more. The trend is my friend! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 06z GEFS still showing a lot of potential...the trends are what I'm really looking for at this point... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 06z GEFS showing a couple 980's/970's in the mix...boy, this thing could really blow up... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 GFS mean a little north of the EPS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 This storm looking similar to last year's that just missed us to the south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Yep, looks south of us at this point. Wouldn't want to add to our no more than 1" at a time snow events so far this year.This storm looking similar to last year's that just missed us to the south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Uh oh, ICON is playing peekaboo with the Sunday/Monday storm, I can’t find it on the latest run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Uh oh, ICON is playing peekaboo with the Sunday/Monday storm, I can’t find it on the latest run.It has it it's just very weak and south, it will recover soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z GFS holds steady maybe a tick south. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Still a solid storm, but its development is delayed a bit compared to earlier runs, so it's mostly south and east of Iowa. It's still five days out, though. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 GFS shifted significantly south in Iowa. Big changes from the 00z run to 12z. Go from full fledged snow storm to glancing blow, and likely to continue to shift south based on where the Euro has the snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Lol...GFS has 16 inches in KC... I’ll bet the under on that! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Toms going to pull this one in! Just sit back and watch 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Zilch up here. 6" couple runs ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 d**n, that looks much better...the juice potential is picking up! EPS mean and ensembles look nice. I will take Ensemble 14 for $1000 Alex!!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 This puts me in the bullseye, so you can all be rest assured that this won't happen. Come on happy thoughts lol. We are looking good on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 I will take Ensemble 14 for $1000 Alex!!!. Looks like 03 for the win to me!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 I am just going to wait it out. They models have flip flopped so much that it is hard to have much confidence in any solution. I guess I would say go with the Euro until proven wrong. The 12Z NAM only goes to 84 hours, but has a shield of snow moving across Western Nebraska and Kansas so it will be interesting to watch that model in the coming few days. Should be a fun weekend of tracking, but disappointment for some I'm sure. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z GFS with a good hit for southern Great Lakes region as well. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Canadian is gradually losing the system now. It's certainly not looking good for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 UkMET appears to be way S and likely a non-event for most. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12Z GFS mean 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 This thing has bust written all over it. Not just the spread in the models, but the fact some barely have a storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 This thing has bust written all over it. Not just the spread in the models, but the fact some barely have a storm. Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z GFS with a good hit for southern Great Lakes region as well.Where can I sign up for this..... Clinton---this crushes your area 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12Z GFS mean More than half of the ensembles look good for SEMI....... 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Tbh, I would like to see model agreement (at least 3 or more) as we approach towards Friday. Until then, expect lots and lots of changes, disappointments and of course, great model looks for some peeps on here. Its all in fun. FWIW: as of now, I think Clinton is looking golden for a good snowfall. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 More than half of the ensembles look good for SEMI.......It's a good run from Kansas all the way through you. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Tbh, I would like to see model agreement (at least 3 or more) as we approach towards Friday. Until then, expect lots and lots of changes, disappointments and of course, great model looks for some peeps on here. Its all in fun. The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? Absolutely not......this storm has major potential for a lot of peeps written all ova it!!! 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.On top of that, there is sparse data in this region. Not surprised to see model mayhem. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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