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12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider


Tom

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Folks, will this be the first major snowstorm of the season that shares the wealth???  It's now beginning to look pretty darn good that a lot of our members from the central Plains/MW/Lower GL's are in the vicinity of a potential major snowstorm.  Surprisingly, the GFS/GEFS have been leading the way with this storm, although, one can argue the Euro flashed this storm potential on one run at Day 9 but then lost it and suppressed it but now is coming back to life with this storm.

 

Let's discuss....

 

While there are several different solutions to this potential storm track, the GFS/GEFS has been steadfast of developing a storm system coming out of the 4 corners region and entering the "slot" and digging deep into the S Plains and shooting up NE into the OHV.  See animation below....this has been on of the most common storm tracks of the season.

 

00z GEFS showing some decent grouping near the OHV....

 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_26.png

 

 

 

Big time increase in the snow shield across the Plains/MW region...

 

snod.conus.png

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00z EPS finally caved (yes, it's odd saying this)...but gotta give kuddos to the american model on this one...confidence is growing now that we are inside 5 days on this one and the operational/ensembles are painting a good chance for a large scale storm system.

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_6.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_7.png

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^- agree. two waves of energy with the second being more robust and SE of the first one.  I don't buy it. I think more than normal of variations in guidance awaits us on this one...

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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maybe this should go in the DEC thread- but gonna post it here because it ultimately deals with this system and snowfall but also not buying the 06Z GFS as it has it -13F for 6AM on Thursday the 19th for DSM (just after said event)-- Euro has 28F. What's 41F degrees at day 8ish or 9ish? What's weird is that one would think the suppressed Euro would have it colder than 28F. More moving parts next week than normal imo.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Still a solid storm, but its development is delayed a bit compared to earlier runs, so it's mostly south and east of Iowa.  It's still five days out, though.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I am just going to wait it out.  They models have flip flopped so much that it is hard to have much confidence in any solution.  I guess I would say go with the Euro until proven wrong.  The 12Z NAM only goes to 84 hours, but has a shield of snow moving across Western Nebraska and Kansas so it will be interesting to watch that model in the coming few days.  Should be a fun weekend of tracking, but disappointment for some I'm sure.

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12z GFS with a good hit for southern Great Lakes region as well.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Where can I sign up for this..... :D

 

Clinton---this crushes your area ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12Z GFS mean

1576605600-KAw0Iz7xMfM.png

 

1576573200-VJO5ywa7o94.png

More than half of the ensembles look good for SEMI.......

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tbh, I would like to see model agreement (at least 3 or more) as we approach towards Friday. Until then, expect lots and lots of changes, disappointments and of course, great model looks for some peeps on here. Its all in fun. :D

 

 

FWIW: as of now, I think Clinton is looking golden for a good snowfall.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tbh, I would like to see model agreement (at least 3 or more) as we approach towards Friday. Until then, expect lots and lots of changes, disappointments and of course, great model looks for some peeps on here. Its all in fun. :D

The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.

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Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? 

Absolutely not......this storm has major potential for a lot of peeps written all ova it!!! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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