12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider

[Clinton]

Clinton,

 

LOL..The GFS has you shooting into the 40’s and rain

Not funny lol but a possibility for sure.

[Hawkeye]

00z UK is not quite there yet, but it's a huge improvement from recent runs.

 

Some of that high qpf near KC is from before the Monday system.

 

[Clinton]

00z GFS mean still juiced.

[Clinton]

GFS ensembles with a north trend.  To far north by the way lol.

[hlcater]

One model had to be a loser. 

 

[Stormhunter87]

And I'm back to were I started last night lol. Can't wait for this to get on shore and in range of the Nam. Edit: this is starting to play out like last year with that first big storm. Just missed us to the south.

[GDR]

I’m not falling for the gfs lets see the king!

[Grizzcoat]

Euro takes a baby step N (compared to 12Z) but system fizzles as it moves E. Still a good hit for Clinton. One can see some of the same features with GFS and EURO through HR 90-96 and  then vast differences between the two after that. Probably go with a blend of the two for now which is a close call for many reading (is not that nearly always the case?)

[jcwxguy]

Euro

[Grizzcoat]

One thing that "may" (and I use that term loosely) bode well for the GFS is that it appears the Euro is catching on to the idea of colder air for middle to end of next week. Something the GFS has seen for sometime. Euro now has it 9F at MSP for noon on WED when the 00Z run 24 hours ago had it 35F.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS is less amped and thus doesn't cut as hard and is SE compared to 00Z GFS. If the 12Z continues the trend (no upper air soundings in 06/18Z runs) then I think the GFS is going Euro and the rests way. Which (if so) is kinda what many would think with the GFS being on an island.

DMX's take on it (I think most reading this could write the following- tell me something i don't know)--

 

Sunday night through Monday afternoon, another deep trough develops
over the west. A surface low will develop with this system, but
while models vary on the exact location, the low will be south of
the state. However the GFS especially lifts the low to our southern
border thus lifting moisture across southern Iowa, spreading snow
across southwest and south central Iowa then northeast through the
rest of the day. The ECMWF keeps the surface low and moisture
further south with almost no precip over our forecast area. The GFS
is by far the most bullish on this so confidence is not high. We
have chance PoPs going right now and that`s reasonable.

[Clinton]

Euro takes a baby step N (compared to 12Z) but system fizzles as it moves E. Still a good hit for Clinton. One can see some of the same features with GFS and EURO through HR 90-96 and  then vast differences between the two after that. Probably go with a blend of the two for now which is a close call for many reading (is not that nearly always the case?)

That would put me right on the 6in line and I will gladly take that.  My hope was to get between 2-5 out of this system so this would be a win if it happens like this.

[Tom]

06z GEFS continues to show a great hit for KS/MO members...

 

[Clinton]

Here is last nights EPS mean.

[Clinton]

6z GFS mean not that different from the Euro just wetter.

[Tom]

6z GFS mean not that different from the Euro just wetter.

 

Slowly but surely the models are starting to show similar "looks"...lets see if today's 12z suite will continue that trend...last nights 00z GDPS also got wetter across the Plains/S MW region...

[Clinton]

Slowly but surely the models are starting to show similar "looks"...lets see if today's 12z suite will continue that trend...last nights 00z GDPS also got wetter across the Plains/S MW region...

Fingers crossed the snow that fall may stick around for awhile. 

[Tom]

Fingers crossed the snow that fall may stick around for awhile. 

TBH, I really hope it does lay down a lot of snow in the Plains/S MW states bc that will help "cool" temps in the region and negate any warming of the pattern up this way.  It bodes well for both of our regions going forward.  Spread the wealth around a bit with this storm system.

[Clinton]

TBH, I really hope it does lay down a lot of snow in the Plains/S MW states bc that will help "cool" temps in the region and negate any warming of the pattern up this way.  It bodes well for both of our regions going forward.  Spread the wealth around a bit with this storm system.

White Christmas are rare down here on average only about a 10% chance on any given year.  If I can land 4 or more I should be locked in for a white Christmas.

[Clinton]

6z EC looking more like the GFS for KC.  I think the EC is still playing catch up for those E/NE of me.

 

 

[Clinton]

A little bump in the mean on the 6z

[jaster220]

Euro can tend to be stubborn dry with the snow precip. It certainly was for Vet's Day. It may have finally caught on late-game, but I don't remember tbh since I was focused on the SR models by then. 

[CentralNebWeather]

A little bump in the mean on the 6z

Can you bump that north about 30-40 miles? 

[Clinton]

Can you bump that north about 30-40 miles? 

Sure that may not change a whole lot for me. LOL

[Stacsh]

GRR on board?? Unusual for this office this far out...

 

"Significant snow event possible (looking more likely) Monday

afternoon into Tuesday. Colder with lake effect into Wednesday

 

The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and the
ECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closer
to us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRR
from the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low dropping
south into and southern stream system, this could be power house
storm. We will have to watch this closely."

[Andie]

Gorgeous morning and sunrise in North Texas.

38* clear and calm. High of 59*.

Just another day in Paradise.

 

This doesn't do the sunrise justice. It was deeper red and purple and covered the horizon 180*

Just awesome!

 

[Tony]

It's been awhile now since I have posted but since we are finally looking at some potential storms I thought I would chime in. Have been looking at the modeling and trying to understand why they are so much different from each other. From a novice point of view I can only assume that the Pacific Jet has been playing "major" havoc on the modeling and will continue to do so until they get a handle on this.

 

There will be storm early next week, that is a given, but the details probably will not be ironed out until at least Saturday so each run of the models will most likely continue to waffle until then.

 

The storm that has me intrigued is the one showing up around Christmas Day as this has the potential of being a powerhouse for many of us.

 

Looking forward to a over performing winter season. Get your parkas and snow blowers ready as we ride winter into the record books...hopefully!

[Niko]

NOAA mentioning next weeks storm......

 

 

Yet another system will then track near the southern Great Lakes
from the four corners Monday and Monday night. GFS and ECMWF remain
far apart with their solutions but the main story will be that a
strong low may track through the Ohio Valley region which would put
southern MI in the colder, deformation region of the low. Depending
on how far north or south it tracks will determine how far north
precipitation can reach and what ptype will occur. The piece of the
jet that will be responsible for this storm isn`t set to reach the
NW conus til Saturday night so may be some time before models really
start converging on a track.

[Tom]

12z ICON coming back around towards a stronger piece of energy instead of a flat wave. It likes the southern MW region.

[Clinton]

12z ICON coming back around towards a stronger piece of energy instead of a flat wave. It likes the southern MW region.

It is really slow kicking it out.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS has already backed off the sharpness of the energy as it moves into the west compared to last night.

[bud2380]

GFS still the best of the models for eastern Iowa in terms of snow, but majorly decreased from last night.  Looks like a few inches on this run for Iowa City area.  Still 96 hours from the start of the storm so plenty of changes to come. 

[bud2380]

[Stacsh]

The GFS has already backed off the sharpness of the energy as it moves into the west compared to last night.

 

Consistent track so far though for several days now. 

[Clinton]

GFS a nice run for a lot of us.

[Stacsh]

Won't be surprised if this amps up a little bit in the next few runs on the models.  A little bit stronger and we all know it's heading north.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z ICON is very poor for almost all of us.  12Z GFS gives areas south of I 80 2-3" and several more in Northern Kansas.  I'd take that if it verifies.  My thoughts all along are I hope to get an 1" or so and maybe end up on the high end with 3".

[Clinton]

12Z GFS mean is perfect!!!!

[Niko]

By Friday and especially Saturday, there should (hopefully) be a better handle on this storm per model runs.

[FV-Mike]

meteorologists must be scratching their heads with the consistancy of the GFS