December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter

[BrianJK]

00z Euro...

Radar trends not looking good up here. Kinda of what I expected. Guess we’ll see what happens throughout the day.

[Tom]

Radar trends not looking good up here. Kinda of what I expected. Guess we’ll see what happens throughout the day.

You made the trip up?

[St Paul Storm]

The band that formed overhead is gonna park itself for a while. I think we’re in a nice spot with this. Dendritic growth zone looking good too according to latest analysis. Flakes are a good size.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Accumulating snow is still looking likely early Tuesday morning
through lunch time. The next lobe of vorticity will rotate around
the mid level low which is still lingering over northern MI at this
time. The approaching cold pool will further enhance the well mixed
boundary layer with mixing depths extending up to around 7kft by
Tuesday morning. Top of the mixed layer with good lapse rates will
reside within the DGZ so flake production should be efficient.
Residual moisture over the area combined with the Lake MI plume
releasing eastward with the cold front is yielding around 0.15" of
QPF as a consensus with the models. Expecting widespread totals of
1-2" with some isolated totals around 3" possible, especially
considering the convective nature to the showers in thew late
morning. Snow will begin around 4am with the bulk of the
accumulating snow ending by noon. Lingering light showers will
continue through the afternoon.

[Tom]

It snowed here for a little bit and got a coating. The dendrites were nice and big. Nice to see it snow again.

[Niko]

They haven't moved the needle down my way, but there's some 8+ blobs now showing up in the jackpot zone along Lk Michigan snow belt counties. Wouldn't be surprised if somebody hits double digits, especially liking the region from Grand Haven up to Benzonia. 

 

20191229 GRR Storm Graphic2.png

Nice! Someone will score very good w this snowevent coming up.

[BrianJK]

You made the trip up?

Yep, been up for a while. And spoke too soon - coming down nicely now. Hope it continues. Will take some pics when I head out.

[Stacsh]

My point has 5" overnight tonight and additional 1" tomorrow.  But most of the graphics I see now being put out have lowered the totals here closer to 4".  

[CentralNebWeather]

Living in town, you sometimes don’t realize how bad things are out in the country. I took a short drive on the edge town this morning and the blowing and drifting is impressive. As of the morning I80 is still closed in many parts of Central Nebraska along with Highway 30 between Kearney and Grand Island. Most other roads are in bad shape along with blowing snow across. I followed a snow plow from a distance this morning on the north side of town and lost him in the snow. Looks like most areas will finish between 6-12” with some isolated spots higher north and northwest of Kearney. Pretty impressive storm.

[St Paul Storm]

About 1.5” down so far. Latest HRRR and RAP upping totals a bit.

[jaster220]

Back in the Autumn, this is what we both had envisioned during the Winter.  It's really unfortunate the cold air wasn't around this time.  This system part of the LRC is on my calendar a couple more times this season, so hopefully it can deliver the goods from start to finish next time.  BTW, the wind factor is really impressive with this beast.  Wonder how low the baro will go??  

 

There is a Flood Advisory issued for W MI peeps as quite the heavy precip is exploding as the SLP deepens over S MI.  SLP is located right over DTX at the moment.

 

 

00z Euro...

 

True ofc, but looking at that 0z Euro map you posted, it's still pretty nice for the Mitt all things considered. Wasn't included in the Flood Advisory thankfully (had more than my share of flooding here), but total for the 2-part system was a very healthy 2.03" per the airport instrument. So we got most of our month's worth of moisture in the final days. My bedroom windows face east and the hvy rain on an east wind all night it sounded like I was in a car wash, no kidding! The baro dropped to 990 mb's around 4 am and the winds howling when it passed woke me again. You know, that roaring sound you get with the bare trees when gusts get up and over 40 mph. Glad to you've seen snow flying already pardner. Here's to a colder version during your targeted LRC dates! Could be quite the ride if it happens. 

[jaster220]

My point has 5" overnight tonight and additional 1" tomorrow.  But most of the graphics I see now being put out have lowered the totals here closer to 4".  

 

AFD also mentions over-performer is on the table. Wouldn't get concerned about their maps. Yesterday's WWA had me at 2-4, but their map showed 1-3. Today, the WWA txt says 1-3 but maps are more like 2-4. It's GRR, the overall coordination seems lacking. Also, they rolled everything into the WWA (flooded streets/high winds/snows). What's next, a WWA for tornados? Didn't want to confuse the public staff with too many colors on the map.    K, there's my office pokes, for the morning at least..

[Stacsh]

AFD also mentions over-performer is on the table. Wouldn't get concerned about their maps. Yesterday's WWA had me at 2-4, but their map showed 1-3. Today, the WWA txt says 1-3 but maps are more like 2-4. It's GRR, the overall coordination seems lacking. Also, they rolled everything into the WWA (flooded streets/high winds/snows). What's next, a WWA for tornados? Didn't want to confuse the public staff with too many colors on the map.    K, there's my office pokes, for the morning at least..

according to their experimental snowfall percentages I have a 100 percent chance of 3" and 95 percent chance of 4" or more.  top end 8" low end 4".   

[Tom]

True ofc, but looking at that 0z Euro map you posted, it's still pretty nice for the Mitt all things considered. Wasn't included in the Flood Advisory thankfully (had more than my share of flooding here), but total for the 2-part system was a very healthy 2.03" per the airport instrument. So we got most of our month's worth of moisture in the final days. My bedroom windows face east and the hvy rain on an east wind all night it sounded like I was in a car wash, no kidding! The baro dropped to 990 mb's around 4 am and the winds howling when it passed woke me again. You know, that roaring sound you get with the bare trees when gusts get up and over 40 mph. Glad to you've seen snow flying already pardner. Here's to a colder version during your targeted LRC dates! Could be quite the ride if it happens. 

I know exactly what you mean my friend!  Miss that sound along with the blowing snow sideways...we'll get our chance soon enough...

[jaster220]

Looks to me that the midnight to 6 am period should be ripping pretty good across WMI. My office's AFD even allowing for convective elements in play so I do think narrow bands of higher rates will scatter some surprise lolly-pop totals throughout the region. They even admit it's a rare set-up so imho, that's a great sign. 

 

 

-- Snow becomes widespread and accumulates tonight into Tuesday--

As the system continued to deepen today the cold air comes in and
model soundings suggest by mid afternoon the air over our CWA will
for the most part be cold enough for snow to reach the ground.
However the moisture depth will not be deep enough for much to
happen. Tonight as the upper trough moves through the area the 95
percent RH reaches to near 25,000 ft. We get a deep DGZ, much
deeper than typically seen here (10,0000 feet between the top and
bottom of the layer) between midnight and sunrise. The max lift is
at the bottom of the DGZ during that time. The equilibrium level
reaches near 8000 ft (very deep for this sort of event) so we will
have convective instability with this. This will lead to a very
efficient snow process. The other aspect to this is surface
temperature will fall into the upper 20s tonight so given the 20
to 30 mph winds the snow will accumulate and blow around some.

This will result in a very messy morning commute Tuesday as there
will be gusty winds, snow and blowing snow across most of the
area. Due to the strong winds in the cloud layer (near 40 knots)
the heaviest snowfall will be closer to US-131 than US-31. Most of
the accumulations will be between midnight and sunrise when the
best lift, moisture depth and dynamics work together. We will
remain in a favorable region for snow showers into the early
evening so snow showers will continue into New Years eve but they
will not be as strong and winds will diminish some by then. The
upper wave moves out after midnight so that should bring and end
to this event.

It seems like a 3 to 6 inch snowfall is more than likely. This may
well overperform given the dynamics of this event. We will
continue our Winter Weather advisory as is.

 

 

[Tom]

@ Jaster, no joke, I literally just heard that Roar of the winds just as I made that post!   What a coincidence...

[jaster220]

Finally, a couple maps. IWX has the 3" line solidly bisecting Marshall. Over the years, I find their attention to detail for their MI counties translates very accurately to mby just a county north. 

 

 

GRR's latest is actually a little more robust for me. Their prior maps had a cut-off time earlier, but SR models keep flakes flying down here into Tues night, and perhaps this 3rd map in the series takes that into account:

 

[jaster220]

according to their experimental snowfall percentages I have a 100 percent chance of 3" and 95 percent chance of 4" or more.  top end 8" low end 4".   

 

Yeah, I found that link now. Didn't know they were doing those, thx. So, their high-end map aligns pretty closely with the more robust SR models. I think somewhere between the expected and high-end maps is where this lands. The high-end map has some dbl-digit totals up in the far NW of their CWA exactly where I anticipated such. Looks good tonight into tomorrow morning. Just have to get my stuff done today so I can get out early in the morning and take in all of Nature's display of Mitt winter! 

[jaster220]

Rain flipped to +SN up in NMI just as the SR models were calling for. Must've been holiday week crew at APX to have missed that. Their morning AFD (3 am) said rain slowly going over to snow showers late in the day. They got pound-town instead this morning!

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1251 PM EST MON DEC 30 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM SNOW GAYLORD 45.03N 84.68W
12/30/2019 M6.0 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE

4 HOUR TOTAL.

[CentralNebWeather]

I 80 still closed in Central Nebraska. Very highly traveled so this has to be causing massive problems before the new year.

 

https://twitter.com/nebraska511/status/1211709490074132480?s=21

[jaster220]

34F and sleet attm..

[jaster220]

I 80 still closed in Central Nebraska. Very highly traveled so this has to be causing massive problems before the new year.

 

https://twitter.com/nebraska511/status/1211709490074132480?s=21

 

Wow, impressive stuff out there!

 

Per the wind flow arrows, there's still two distinct SLPs in NMI. Apparently the SLP from MN hasn't quite fully merged with the secondary yet?

 

[St Paul Storm]

About 3.5” down now. Probably the lowest visibility I’ve seen so far this season.

[jaster220]

About 3.5” down now. Probably the lowest visibility I’ve seen so far this season.

 

Congrats! was wondering how you were doing up there? Good Luck buddy! 

[MIKEKC]

St. Paul Storm

 

Did you lose your snow pack prior to the snow today. I know you mentioned you had a lot of rain.

[CentralNebWeather]

At our exit on I 80, you can see trucks lined up on the 511webcams waiting for the interstate to reopen.

[BrianJK]

looks like a little over 5" since 6am this morning.  Been pretty steady/moderate rates; occasionally heavy at times.  A very heavy wet snow, sticking to everything - really beautiful scene.

[Andie]

52*. Bright clear skies. Calm, low tonight of 32*.

 

Just perfect.

[St Paul Storm]

Congrats! was wondering how you were doing up there? Good Luck buddy!

 

Thanks! I think I’m benefiting from being more in the eastern metro. The snowfall reports as of noon out west by the weather office are quite a bit lower. Good luck over by you too! Time to whiten up your yard again eh?

[St Paul Storm]

St. Paul Storm

Did you lose your snow pack prior to the snow today. I know you mentioned you had a lot of rain.

We had plenty of rain on Saturday...around 0.75”. The rain and recent warm spell dented the snowpack but as of this morning (before today’s snow started) I still had about 2-3” otg. Officially 3” otg at MSP.

[Niko]

Coudy and windy w gusts to 50mph. Temp at 34F.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

That will change overnight into Tuesday morning as the northern
Great Lakes vorticity center then sweeps back south and southeast
into the area as evening vorticity center progresses east and then
northeast into Ontario. Much better synoptic moisture will pivot
back into the area with this second system and still anticipate
widespread light snow to overspread the area late tonight and
persist through the morning/early afternoon before this second upper
trough axis passes east of the region. Timing is a bit faster with
this scenario and will adjust forecast to bring better snow chances
in overnight with light accumulations up to an inch by daybreak.

The area of synoptic snow, likely enhanced by Lake Michigan plume of
moisture within westerly flow, will continue Tuesday morning with up
to another inch of snow expected in some areas before this broad
area of light snow progresses east. HiRes models still suggest a
decent setup for Lake Effect snow showers/bands setting up in the
immediate wake of the synoptic trough as mixing heights increase to
at least 7kft (models, even HiRes, often under-represent the depth
of this mixed layer) as cold air deepens across the area with the
passage of the second vorticity lobe.

Lapse rates are rather impressive within this layer and with the DGZ
continuing to match up well with this layer, expect a continuation
of decent snow shower activity into the area. This activity will be
more localized in scope, but given the convective potential as cold
pool overspread the area during peak afternoon heating, certainly
believe there is the potential for additional snow accumulations
within areas that experience the most persistent banding of snow
showers. This activity will linger into evening to some degree, but
steadily decrease in coverage/intensity.

 

 

Looks like I am getting a couple of inches of snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

I 80 is reopened.

 

https://twitter.com/nestatepatrol/status/1211748368214642688?s=21

[Hawkeye]

We are getting a bit of freezing drizzle.

[BrianJK]

Ripping good now. Winds picking up. Hopefully this continues into tonight.

[CentralNebWeather]

Highway 30 east of Kearney. Looks a little treacherous. My goodness

https://twitter.com/krvn/status/1211750702101364736?s=21

[St Paul Storm]

That stuff coming down L. Superior heading toward Duluth looks solid. Hoping it doesn’t pivot east too soon. 20z HRRR shows an additional 3”. We’ll see.

[MIKEKC]

St. Paul...yep, large area of snow pivoting right towards you from the NE. I hope it doesn’t pivot just East if you, if it doesn’t, you are going to have a glorious winter’s evening.

 

I’m totally jealous.

 

Tom...squeeze out an inch or two of snow tonight? Good luck!

[bud2380]

Snow totals so far from this storm.

 

[Niko]

Winds are still howling out there. Sustain winds at 19mph, gusts to 38mph. WCF at 23F. Temp at 33F. Snow is on the way for later tanite and continuing into early tomorrow afternoon, possibly evening hours b4 tapering off. Getting a couple of inches.