December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter

[Clinton]

12z GFS mean

 

[Clinton]

12z CMC mean

 

[Hawkeye]

[bud2380]

Sure would be fun to see one of these ^^ in Iowa again someday. It’s been a long time.

[Hawkeye]

Sure would be fun to see one of these ^^ in Iowa again someday. It’s been a long time.

 

Unfortunately, we know that if there is a huge, wrapped up low, a low track through Iowa is the law.

[CentralNebWeather]

Euro brings the heaviest snow just to my west. Could be a fun weekend with lots of precipitation types.

[BrianJK]

Crazy I might have to worry about the rain/snow line in N. WI this time of year. I’ll make a $100 donation to a charity selected by the forum if Eagle River gets 6”+ out of this system and a $250 donation if I get 10”+. Might as well make it interesting and support a good cause during this awful December.

[GDR]

Wow look at all the rain, I hope it verifies

[St Paul Storm]

Crazy I might have to worry about the rain/snow line in N. WI this time of year. I’ll make a $100 donation to a charity selected by the forum if Eagle River gets 6”+ out of this system and a $250 donation if I get 10”+. Might as well make it interesting and support a good cause during this awful December.

As if I didn’t already want this storm to pan out. That’s awesome!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings mentions the lack of cold air as a big issue in this storm. Probably more of a rain/snow mix scenario with snow at the end. Several more days to monitor.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Twitter storm information:

 

https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1209599067312902145?s=21

[james1976]

18z GFS still cutting across IA

[Stormhunter87]

Wow gfs trying to give Omaha big wrap around amounts. Two issues I see with that already. Gfs showed dry air which if it ramps up severe storms they will choke that out. Plus all the rain before will keep the ground warm.

[jaster220]

I like how the 18z GFS slides the amped SLP across the Lakes. Just wish other models would follow suit. They all seem to show some kind of stalling/spinning/looping, but some are really janky and some like the GEM go out of their way to screw SMI of any flakes. 

 

 

[Andie]

Won't be around tomorrow so,...

 

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah my li'l buddies!!

[CentralNebWeather]

0z 12k NAM is a good hit around here.

[jcwxguy]

Icon

[gimmesnow]

Wow, this is crazy. Most of the ski resorts in SE Wisconsin aren't even 100% open, and we're going to get an inch of rain right before their busiest time of year.

 

Looking at totals, an inch of rain will come very close to completely taking out Wilmot until they can blow more snow. And there's absolutely zero decent 24+ hour stretches of sub-28 degree weather to blow snow. Mountain Top is almost definitely going down. Even think my home hill has some trouble.

 

An inch of rain usually takes out a foot of man made snow on a ski hill. Most of the hills here have 12 to 20 inches. And they are probably being very generous with those numbers and not counting all the warm we've had. Going to be a sad time, an inch of rain could have been a lot of snow.

[CentralNebWeather]

ICON blasts Central Nebraska. We’ll see.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z GFS looks very similar to the ICON.

[jaster220]

0z 12k NAM is a good hit around here.E4A0EAAB-8AA3-490A-8FCC-61EF1E2C73B3.png

 

I like the early NAM look but it too was in the losing camp with last week's storm. Not saying that's the case now, since all models seem to be in agreement with the phase whereas last week, several were not. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian puts freezing rain down here before snow. That would not be ideal with our hosting of relatives this weekend.

 

I would say the ICON, GFS, and Canadian all now have a similar looking storm. Some variance on the rain/snow line, but I’m sure that will move around in coming models. I’d like to see the Euro tonight to compare.

[jcwxguy]

GFS and icon

[Hawkeye]

00z UK

 

[SE Wisconsin]

Wow, this is crazy. Most of the ski resorts in SE Wisconsin aren't even 100% open, and we're going to get an inch of rain right before their busiest time of year.

 

Looking at totals, an inch of rain will come very close to completely taking out Wilmot until they can blow more snow. And there's absolutely zero decent 24+ hour stretches of sub-28 degree weather to blow snow. Mountain Top is almost definitely going down. Even think my home hill has some trouble.

 

An inch of rain usually takes out a foot of man made snow on a ski hill. Most of the hills here have 12 to 20 inches. And they are probably being very generous with those numbers and not counting all the warm we've had. Going to be a sad time, an inch of rain could have been a lot of snow.

I hear ya!  I'm a cross country skier and thanks to the hard work of dozens on volunteers as well as countless donors over the past several years Lapham Peak state park now has a 2.4 kilometer man-made snow loop.  It is probably close to a two foot base which can handle several days of warm temps but an inch of rain will severely damage it or even decimate sections of it.  It's like Mother Nature is just wanting to kick us while we're down.  Feel bad for all the volunteers who put in so much time to make this possible.  Just doesn't seem right but there is nothing we can do about it.

[Hawkeye]

Models tonight are phasing and cutting the storm even earlier.

[hlcater]

Next

[GDR]

Hey we will get some much needed rain so hold on a little and not onto the next!

[clintbeed1993]

I hope the EURO is wrong, but there's really nothing to stop this storm from cutting right over top of me. Pathetic that we're going to waste such a massive precipitation maker on rain during the last week of December. Not the month I was looking for AT ALL.

[Tom]

The 00z Euro is showing a textbook Dakota's Blizzard...where did we see that before???  

 

 

 

 

Rebuilding the Glacier up north...

 

[Tom]

00z GEFS snow mean...

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS mean...

 

[Clinton]

00z EPS mean

 

[Tom]

@ Clinton, this is trending towards the monster storm we have seen in previous cycles.  My goodness, nearly all of those EPS members are massive hits for the Upper Midwest.  It's really unfortunate blocking is non existent during this cycle.  Hopefully some of our members can cash in on some snow.  Needless to say, there is a beast in the making.

[Clinton]

@ Clinton, this is trending towards the monster storm we have seen in previous cycles.  My goodness, nearly all of those EPS members are massive hits for the Upper Midwest.  It's really unfortunate blocking is non existent during this cycle.  Hopefully some of our members can cash in on some snow.  Needless to say, there is a beast in the making.

No doubt and good job on finding a harnonic.  Where do you think we go from here?

[Tom]

No doubt and good job on finding a harnonic.  Where do you think we go from here?

You mean after this storm departs?  Well, you pointed out that storm in early Jan which is being picked up by the Euro Op and now on the GEFS ensembles.  I'm thinking this one has sights for our region during the opening days of Jan.  I'll chime in more later today.  Gotta get going in a bit and get ready for Christmas Mass at 7:30am.

[BMT]

Really hoping we can score some rain out of this one. This weeks weather has been amazing.

[Stormy]

The GFS and WPC are consistently showing seasonally heavy rainfall for eastern Iowa though it shifted a bit further west lately.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco says if the low tracks over Central Nebraska then the heaviest snow stays just to my west. However, they say if the NAN or GFS verifies, then the heavy swath of snow comes right over parts of Central Nebraska. Should be fascinating to see how this develops. Here is their words if it interests you.

 

 

Precip: The main show is the Fri-Sat system. The EC ensemble mean

along with the 12Z/00Z runs are the best case scenario for

keeping svr winter wx out of most of the CWA. Extrapolation of the

90 hr 18Z EC run is supportive. That consensus is for the 500 mb

low to track just W of the CWA. That is a warm track and means

lots of rain. If the EC is right...some thunder would be psbl.

Wintry precip would probably only affect LXN-ODX.

 

The more Ern track offered by the NAM/GFS seems less likely...but

it would put the swath of accumulating snow acrs the CWA...

possibly buffered by frzg rain/ice in the transition to rain.

 

QPF: regardless of what type(s) of precip fall...odds favor a

heavy precip event. Odds are high that the entire CWA measures at

least 0.50"...but a large swath of the CWA could see at least 1"

of rain or liquid equivalent.

 

Wind: If the EC ends up right with a sub-990 low occluding over MN

...Sun and Sun night could be very windy with G45-55 MPH.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Twitter information.

 

https://twitter.com/nwshastings/status/1209812067407953920?s=21