December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter

[Clinton]

6z EC and mean

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

12Z NAM is west too. The Black Hills of western SoDak might be able to pull this one in yet.

[GDR]

Enjoy the warmth and needed rain!!

[Stormy]

We need rain so bad I hope it pans out!

We definitely aren't hurting from lack of soil moisture here, but I'll gladly take some rain again. Maybe your soil moisture is much lower than here? It just barely dries off this time of the year.

[jaster220]

We definitely aren't hurting from lack of soil moisture here, but I'll gladly take some rain again. Maybe your soil moisture is much lower than here? It just barely dries off this time of the year.

 

We never have dry soils during this low sun angle season. Sure we have more trees, but even out in the plains I would imagine any perceived dryness is only at the surface. Can't imagine real drought conditions persisting. Snow also adds moisture when it melts. I'll take snow this time of year. Keep the rain for April showers. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Exactly. Dryness in the winter is overrated.

 

We never have dry soils during this low sun angle season. Sure we have more trees, but even out in the plains I would imagine any perceived dryness is only at the surface. Can't imagine real drought conditions persisting. Snow also adds moisture when it melts. I'll take snow this time of year. Keep the rain for April showers.

[jcwxguy]

Bring on icon

[Money]

Gfs coming in even farther west

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS is a perfect track for me. Of course every model looks different. Euro is the farthest west as of the 0z. If that comes a little farther East my expectations would go up.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS. Yes please.

[bud2380]

Definitely wasn’t looking for a post Christmas rain storm but I’d rather get an inch of rain than dry slotted so bring it on I guess

[Stormy]

We never have dry soils during this low sun angle season. Sure we have more trees, but even out in the plains I would imagine any perceived dryness is only at the surface. Can't imagine real drought conditions persisting. Snow also adds moisture when it melts. I'll take snow this time of year. Keep the rain for April showers.

Snow doesn’t add much moisture if soil has already frozen. That’s why there is often some flooding during snowmelt in the spring especially when combined with rainfall. Another thing, we sometimes do have dry soils and drought if it’s dry going into the cold season (which wasn’t the case for a number of years) as ANY precipitation oftentimes won’t penetrate if it’s frozen. Basically, we really don’t need much precipitation during the winter on frozen soils. The main agricultural benefit with snow that I can think of is to insulate plants etc. And of course some peoples livelihoods depend on snow plus many other reasons to like snow! Sometimes it’s beneficial to have deaply frozen soils to freeze out some pests. Just yesterday I was trying to dig out some some soil from the field to fill in some low spots around the house, and I had a hard time getting it with my heavy skid steer loader as it was frozen surprisingly hard yet! But it was bare soil and I doubt grass covered areas are frozen much anymore. End of boring rant! Lol

[snowstorm83]

GFS has about 2" of rain at LNK followed by 1-2" of snow. Big yikes. Double the December precipitation average in one storm and it falls as rain. My layover back home on the 29th is at MSP, so I'm watching the track closely. 

[Stormhunter87]

Bring on icon

We are riding such an odd edge with that output.

[Tom]

Taking a break from preparing for a big Christmas party at our place this year.  The house smells soooo good!  Well, we have seen this script before...the 12z Euro hammers the Dakota's and Upper MW...

 

[james1976]

GFS led the way on this one. Gotta give it credit.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am riding the line with the Euro, much better with GFS. All runs put down a lot of moisture. Euro has 1.5” of precipitation in all different forms. Canadian wants to put most down as sleet and freezing rain. It will be fun to see how it plays out. Even if we get a decent snow, it won’t stick around long.

[BrianJK]

What factors are at play that could cause a shift in the current forecasted track? Is there a high pressure anywhere in sight that might speed up/drop down and push this further south and east?

[CentralNebWeather]

What factors are at play that could cause a shift in the current forecasted track? Is there a high pressure anywhere in sight that might speed up/drop down and push this further south and east?

I’ve wondered the same thing.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just saw my spot forecast for Friday night, “snow, possibly mixed with rain, freezing rain and sleet, snow accumulations possible.” That would be fun to watch but not drive in.

[CentralNebWeather]

For fun, 18z GFS clobbers Southwest, Central, and Northeast Nebraska

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS. Gabel23 and Clint would like this run.

[james1976]

LOVE how that curves right around me. Been like that all season with these hard cutters and I fully expect it again this time.

[CentralNebWeather]

To be sure, I’m not trusting any solution yet and it may all fizzle to a rain storm. However we are only 2 days away now so you’d think we’d start seeing a consensus by tomorrow hopefully for travelers sake.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS instant weather maps

[Stormhunter87]

This is going to come down to the short runs. That freezing line is going to be moving. Plus there is a good chance that severe weather will start choking out the northern material.

[clintbeed1993]

This is a pretty depressing storm. Shouldn't be getting rain at the end of December. It's even more upsetting that this storm has so much moisture to work with and it's wasted on a lack of cold air.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z 12km NAM. Some of this would also be sleet I assume.

[Clinton]

0z 12km NAM. Some of this would also be sleet I assume.92C4CE51-AF68-4692-9F6D-CB98FEAA686B.png

Looks like the NAM has you right in the transition zone.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Here’s the actual snowfall and freezing rain amounts. Huge difference between Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal maps.

[clintbeed1993]

Jesus Christ. What would be 12 inches of snow, wasted on a sleet storm. This is a scrooge job

[OmahaSnowFan]

3km NAM with similar freezing rain amounts in Nebraska. Also has the same huge dry slot that moves in Saturday morning in Nebraska up into southeast SoDak as the 12k NAM. Freezing rain amounts are with the initial slug of moisture Friday night.

[Stormhunter87]

Yuck hold the freezing precipitation please.

[GDR]

Wow that’s a lot of freezing rain!

[bud2380]

I wonder if people in the Dakotas ever get tired of all these 12-18” snowstorms. Crazy how it happens multiple times per year there. I just want one. LOL.

[hlcater]

Yea the dakotas have had an incredible decade. Maybe one day it’ll be our turn but I doubt it

[Hawkeye]

All the models this evening have slowed the system a bit and are showing a secondary piece of energy rounding the base of the trough and shooting up into the lakes Sunday.

[CentralNebWeather]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Hastings NE

245 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW

FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

 

.A storm system will cross Nebraska and Kansas Friday through

Sunday...and it will bring a variety of precipitation types.

Precipitation will begin as rain Friday afternoon and then change

over to freezing rain...sleet...and snow over parts of the area

Friday night into Saturday. Current amounts of snow and ice are

preliminary and will undergo changes today and tomorrow...as

forecast details come into better focus...and confidence increases

further.

 

Those with holiday travel plans should remain alert with the

weather and closely monitor future forecasts.

 

Phillips-Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Dawson-

Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-

Franklin-

Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Ord, Greeley, Spalding,

Scotia, Wolbach, Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir,

Litchfield, St. Libory, Central City, Lexington, Cozad,

Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, Elwood,

Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden, Hastings, Cambridge, Arapahoe,

Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin,

Campbell, and Hildreth

245 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE

SATURDAY NIGHT...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow

accumulations of 2 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of at least

one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35

mph.

 

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central and south

central Nebraska.

 

* WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night.

 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could

significantly reduce visibility.

[Tom]

The 00z Euro still painting a massive blizzard for the Great Plains/Dakotas and Upper MW region of MN.  I'm noticing the model is picking up on an important feature that has cycled already multiple times this season which is Slowing down the storm and occluding over the GL's.  It literally takes 3-4 days to track through our Sub.  The Hudson Bay block setting up shop is causing this storm to just sit and spin near the GL's region.  Those who initially miss out on the snow and get rain in MN/WI eventually may get lucky to see some wrap around snows as the storm occludes.

 

 

 

 

00z Canadian looks similar...