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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all.   But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

 

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around.   It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10.    I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.  

 

Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.

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Would like to see the big 3 all looking somewhat similar...Let’s hope the Euro becomes similar to the big G! The big G has led the way so far so let’s hope!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.

GFS could be right... its starting to show consistency. I have no idea. Just offering some thoughts.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all. But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

 

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around. It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10. I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.

 

A cold bias doesn’t matter a single bit if there’s a pressure gradient like this over BC.

5C48DF56-D4D2-4CF0-B418-25E7899F665A.png

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A cold bias doesn’t matter a single bit of there’s a pressure gradient like this over BC.

The cold bias could be part of why it shows that gradient.

 

Again... I will be more confident when the ECMWF shows meaningful cold air within 10 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Finished December with some heavy rain and windy conditions. 0.49" on new year's to put us at 7.93" for December and 31.32" of rain for the year.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Gotta find something, even onto the GEM! I kinda wanna know when was the last time Tim cited the GEM?

 

 

Don't be a jerk.   Every time the GEM shows cold... its touted on here.    And if the 12Z GEM agreed with the 12Z GFS... it would have been mentioned numerous times already.    Including by me.

 

When there is huge differences in the models for a big event... we obviously will look to the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for some agreement.   You don't have to pay attention... but I am going to watch those models and the ensembles.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The cold bias could be part of why it shows that gradient.

 

Again... I will be more confident when the ECMWF shows meaningful cold air within 10 days.

Timing has gone slightly up last couple runs on the 06 and 12, I would expect the Euro to do the same. I haven’t checked rhe latest GEFS yet but the 06 run didn’t follow the operational at all, so this may be the case of the op leading the way or still a cold outlier. No way of telling

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Don't be a jerk.   Every time the GEM shows cold... its touted on here.    And if the 12Z GEM agreed with the 12Z GFS... it would have been mentioned numerous times already.    

 

When there is huge differences in the models for a big event... we obviously will look to the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for some agreement.   You don't have to pay attention... but I am going to watch those models and the ensembles.

Also important to note that the operational gfs recently outperformed its own ensemble and the European model and its ensemble.

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Don't be a jerk. Every time the GEM shows cold... its touted on here. And if the 12Z GEM agreed with the 12Z GFS... it would have been mentioned numerous times already. Including by me.

 

When there is huge differences in the models for a big event... we obviously will look to the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for some agreement. You don't have to pay attention... but I am going to watch those models and the ensembles.

Lmao
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Also important to note that the operational gfs recently outperformed its own ensemble and the European model and its ensemble.

I pointed out exactly that in the same post.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GFS shows over 3 feet of snow here in the next 2 weeks.

apparently the gfs was drinking last night lol must still be feeling it.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Yep, if there's a warm nose around, it will find my house. My last deep snow (over 4") was in '08.

 

Wow, I've had so many larger snowfalls since then. Even periods over the last couple winters with more snow than that on the ground for several days. You should move just slightly north.
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That would be an orgasmic cross-cascade gradient. Spilling over into the McKenzie valley with a continental profile.

Cross Cascade gradient gives more of the Valley deep enough cold air to work with.  Lets hope this is the year for a regional cold and snow event.  Great way to start the new decade.   I'm working hard not to get my hopes up just yet.  We've seen this movie way too many times.  It does look promising though. Once inside 3-4 days, then I'll drink the Kool Aid .  Until then, only my dogs know.

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For the day 9 event.... the GFS ensemble mean is quite a bit warmer than the operational run.   

 

GFS:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850-anom-stream

 

 

GFS ensemble mean:

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850-anom-str

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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For the day 9 event.... the GFS ensemble mean is quite a bit warmer than the operational run.

 

GFS:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850-anom-stream

 

 

GFS ensemble mean:

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850-anom-str

Kind of like last nights Euro. Yuck.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Kind of like last nights Euro. Yuck.

 

 

As of right now... the GFS is the only model showing meaningful cold and snow within 10 days.  

 

Could be leading the way... have to wait and see if the other models jump on board eventually.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow, I've had so many larger snowfalls since then. Even periods over the last couple winters with more snow than that on the ground for several days. You should move just slightly north.

And I'm not that far from you.  You get more easterlies than I do, just a few miles away.  I've had one good snowfall (4.5" in '17)  since '08 but nothing more.  Several 1-3" amounts).  Springwater Rd seems to be a line for good gorge influence.  Those 1-2 degree colder temps has meant the difference.  South of there the wind really drops off and temps are a bit more moderated. 

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06z GFS was totally nuts. 12z was great too. The ensembles are pretty legit too. Now that we have the models actually showing something decent we have Tim dumping cold water on everyone. Come on dude, let us enjoy these runs. I think we all know it is not actually going to happen. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A very balmy 47 degrees this morning. 0.71" of rain in the past 24 hours. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The only point the operational is really off on its own is very briefly on the 10th and the 13th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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