Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

What if the Arctic hammer takes the form of a gigantic public school, drops, and kills us all?

 

It would suck to die just shy of the December 1990 30th anniversary.

[FroYoBro]

I hope when I want  I can bring more to the table than him. But maybe not. If not then my apologies. 

 

 

You just seem to let your mood swings affect your analysis, lol. 

 

I like you and your posts overall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I promise I will make a substantive post tonight. 

[MossMan]

All the action was focused way south for those 3 storms. PDX was on the northern end of them. Did you guys end up getting anything out of that cold air?

Well I walked on semi frozen Lake Goodwin on the 8th, had a little snow on the 9th it looks like, and a dusting on the 22nd of February 2014. Pretty underwhelming.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Remember when schools there were closed forever even when it was sunny again?   Annoying as sh*t.   

Kids I know love it when school is closed. Didn't you when you were young?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You just seem to let your mood swings affect your analysis, lol. 

 

I like you and your posts overall. 

 

Thank you. And you are probably not wrong.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Terrain, limited resources with snow removal equipment, and liability. Lawsuits up the ying yang if a school bus slides off a cliff.

That actually happened in Lake Chelan in 1945.  15 students and the driver died.  

 

https://historylink.org/File/7645

[Requiem]

Honestly I wouldn’t mind a more backdoor sort of event. Cold east winds into PDX followed by lots of moisture— would be fun.

[Deweydog]

Honestly I wouldn’t mind a more backdoor sort of event. Cold east winds into PDX followed by lots of moisture— would be fun.

Thank you for being honest. It’s the best policy.

[MossMan]

That actually happened in Lake Chelan in 1945. 15 students and the driver died.

 

https://historylink.org/File/7645

I read up on that while I was there last September, I tried to look for the memorial that is there somewhere on Lakeshore drive up past the state park but didn’t see it.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm not a fan of the backdoor

[bainbridgekid]

Schools were closed on the east side for just about 2 weeks in February.    

My school closed for 5 days, had 4 late starts and an early release in that two week period. No full days between February 2nd and February 17th.

 

We easily could have closed for more though. A couple of the late starts the roads were still extremely icy since it was still below freezing at 11 AM. We had a bus full of kids slide off the road into the ditch one morning (I think it was the 6th or 7th.)

[MossMan]

I'm not a fan of the backdoor

I cringe when I hear that word...never really works out well for Puget Sound. Each one of those BD events back in 16/17 we would get an inch of snow but it would completely melt off before the cold air would painfully slowly trickle in.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The best part of a good snowstorm around here IS the disturbance of every day life. It brings out the kids in adults and most people enjoy it. It really is magic around here when it happens and you dont get that in places where it is a normal winter thing. Even now at 47 years old I was still out last night with a spot light in front of my cabin waiting for the snow to begin. My wife used to tell me when it started to snow she could see the twinkle in my eyes and for people like Tim or other people who grew up in a true winter climate will never understand what we have been through here growing up waiting for that first winter snow flake.

[jakeinthevalley]

What if the Arctic hammer takes the form of a gigantic public school, drops, and kills us all?

 

It would suck to die just shy of the December 1990 30th anniversary.

It was Christmas Break. Public or Private, had no influence in 1990.

 

I blame it on the Homeschoolers. They never take a day off.

[ShawniganLake]

Honestly I wouldn’t mind a more backdoor sort of event. Cold east winds into PDX followed by lots of moisture— would be fun.

I honestly wouldn’t mind if the arctic front blasted thru here and then stalled around mossmans house with a low pressure system swirling off the Olympic peninsula for 3 days.

[Bueryan]

My weather enthusiasm started when I was a kid and my siblings would wake me up to watch the school closures scroll across the tv.  I loved it when my older brothers high school was 2 hrs late and my middle school was closed! 

[MossMan]

My school closed for 5 days, had 4 late starts and an early release in that two week period. No full days between February 2nd and February 17th.

 

We easily could have closed for more though. A couple of the late starts the roads were still extremely icy since it was still below freezing at 11 AM. We had a bus full of kids slide off the road into the ditch one morning (I think it was the 6th or 7th.)

I think it was possibly November of 1992 right before I got my license and was still riding the school bus a suprise morning snow fell heavily while the busses were out, my bus slid off the road while trying to navigate a corner at Lake Goodwin and almost tipped over on a slope! You could feel the bus come off it’s wheels on one side and then bounced back. The bus driver had to clean her pants, she was quite freaked and just kept saying “why didn’t they at least stop our routes to get the chains put on or cancel school” she was mad!! We all had fun playing in the snow and waiting an hour for another bus to come!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS 500mb Day 7-16. Great signal! If that trough digs just a touch more we're talking real cold!

 

18z Ensembles. More improvements. I'd like to remove those warmer members. I hope we see that the next few days. Also important to note. Long range the Op was a warm outlier. That is unusual to see the ensemble mean lower that far out.

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima - Increasing potential for backdoor blast.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[MossMan]

The best part of a good snowstorm around here IS the distribution of every day life. It brings out the kids in adults and most people enjoy it. It really is magic around here when it happens and you dont get that in places where it is a normal winter thing. Even now at 47 years old I was still out last night with a spot light in front of my cabin waiting for the snow to begin. My wife used to tell me when it started to snow she could see the twinkle in my eyes and for people like Tim or other people who grew up in a true winter climate will never understand what we have been through here growing up waiting for that first winter snow flake.

This!!! SO MUCH THIS!! Snowmizer couldn’t be more right!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The operational was actually well above the ensemble mean in the long range. 

[bainbridgekid]

18z GFS Ensemble mean drops 850mb temps to -8 for SEA and -10 for Vancouver at day 13.

 

Pretty crazy for that far out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I honestly wouldn’t mind if the arctic front blasted thru here and then stalled around mossmans house with a low pressure system swirling off the Olympic peninsula for 3 days.

 

Cold onshore flow with an arctic boundary stalled around Chehalis is actually a great snow setup for me. I wouldn't necessarily mind...

[MossMan]

I honestly wouldn’t mind if the arctic front blasted thru here and then stalled around mossmans house with a low pressure system swirling off the Olympic peninsula for 3 days.

That works! Kind of like November 2006! In a different way of course but that was such an amazing event well before the Arctic event pulled south. People south of about Marysville did not fare nearly as well until the arctic front.

[TacomaWaWx]

The best part of a good snowstorm around here IS the distribution of every day life. It brings out the kids in adults and most people enjoy it. It really is magic around here when it happens and you dont get that in places where it is a normal winter thing. Even now at 47 years old I was still out last night with a spot light in front of my cabin waiting for the snow to begin. My wife used to tell me when it started to snow she could see the twinkle in my eyes and for people like Tim or other people who grew up in a true winter climate will never understand what we have been through here growing up waiting for that first winter snow flake.

It is really special for people who have lived in the PNW their entire lives. I've never lived anywhere else so when it snows here it's something that everyone is excited about. People who live in snowy climates or have before aren't as crazy about it as many around here are. It does snow pretty much every year, but it's really rare for it to actually stick around long or even be a lot of snowfall...kind of why 2008 and 2019 are talked about so highly.

[High Desert Mat?]

I’ve lived in Central Oregon for over a decade now and have seems lots of ice and plenty of deep snow. They rarely close the schools here for that. They have a few times when the plows couldn’t keep up with the heavy snowfall rates, like when it’s snowed around 30” in two or three days. It’s happened four times since I’ve lived here and they may have closed the schools for a day or two. I’ve seen them closed more for temps. If the temps are below zero or more like ten below or more they’ll close or do a two hour delay so the kids don’t have to wait out in the cold for the busses. Hills or not the snow here doesn’t really close schools, unless a two foot storm is imminent.

[kokaneekidz]

If I didn't know any better I would just assume it is hum ho and winter as usual per the WRH SEA office AFD;

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...The parade of storms
continues next week as a series of Pac frontal systems roll
through western WA. Overall, the period remains active with more
rain and possible heavy mountain snow. Snow levels will remain
low. Temperatures in the lowlands will be close to normal. 33

&&

[High Desert Mat?]

I will say, living here has to an extent taken away a little of the excitement of the snow. Now I’m not satisfied until it’s a foot or so and no melting goes on for days with packed snow on the roads. I still am excited, but I can sleep at night now and not stay up all night for it anymore unless the big one is imminent. Lol.

[OysterPrintout]

It is really special for people who have lived in the PNW their entire lives. I've never lived anywhere else so when it snows here it's something that everyone is excited about. People who live in snowy climates or have before aren't as crazy about it as many around here are. It does snow pretty much every year, but it's really rare for it to actually stick around long or even be a lot of snowfall...kind of why 2008 and 2019 are talked about so highly.

 

Completely agree with everyone on this. I grew up in SLC area of Utah and snow isn't nearly as fun there. It gets old. Every morning scraping the ice off your D**n car, gotta go to work anyway.

 

The fun here IS how rare it is. I love seeing dumb drivers get stuck on the side of the road but being a friendly Portland guy and helping em out anyway. I like having a few days off work cause it snowed a little bit. I like sitting in a nice yellow-lit bar and watching the snow fall outside while I have a beer. I like the city shutting down. We all do way too much anyway.

[Gradient Keeper]

Really good 18z GEFS. Several more steps in the right direction. Signal beyond Day 7-8 is impressive. I still know better than to solely trust the GFS. Yeah, the EPS improved, but it's not quite there yet or as good as the GEFS. With PNA tanking to -4 to -5 sigma colder runs ahead seems likely to me. The next 3 days of model runs will make or break it. I think I said that right. C'MON!!!!

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 26 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 41 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensemble mean drops 850mb temps to -8 for SEA and -10 for Vancouver at day 13.

 

Pretty crazy for that far out.

I know, right? -13c for Yakima.

[Deweydog]

It was Christmas Break. Public or Private, had no influence in 1990.

 

I blame it on the Homeschoolers. They never take a day off.

We went to school the 19th.

 

That should REALLY piss Tim off. We had 2-3 inches of snow that morning at the coast and STILL had school.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Others may hate me for posting this, but I’m basically with Jay Albrecht when it comes to being skeptical about the GFS. Not saying we won’t get any snow, but I very much doubt it will be anywhere near as cold as the GFS says it will be. In fact, I’m certain it’s not going to get as cold as the GFS claims it will get. The GFS is forecasting western Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland to get below zero at the surface, with Hope, BC getting into the minus 20's Fahrenheit. Not. Gonna. Happen.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z GEFS 500mb Day 7-16. Great signal! If that trough digs just a touch more we're talking real cold!

floop-gefs-2020010318.500h_anom.na(1).gif

 

18z Ensembles. More improvements. I'd like to remove those warmer members. I hope we see that the next few days. Also important to note. Long range the Op was a warm outlier. That is unusual to see the ensemble mean lower that far out.

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima - Increasing potential for backdoor blast.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Yeah, very strong signal. It might get delayed but it we won't be denied IMHO. It's coming in the second half of January.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Completely agree with everyone on this. I grew up in SLC area of Utah and snow isn't nearly as fun there. It gets old. Every morning scraping the ice off your d**n car, gotta go to work anyway.

 

I went to college in Logan and what got old was all the dirty slushy snow that took ages to melt in the spring. Spring day after spring day when the mets on the SLC TV stations were going on about how nice and warm it got again, but Logan still had a foot or so of lingering dirty slush that was acting like a giant icebox and keeping temps from getting out of the forties. Especially if there would be an overcast day, everything just looked dirty and drab and depressing, not a green thing in sight.

[ShawniganLake]

Others may hate me for posting this, but I’m basically with Jay Albrecht when it comes to being skeptical about the GFS. Not saying we won’t get any snow, but I very much doubt it will be anywhere near as cold as the GFS says it will be. In fact, I’m certain it’s not going to get as cold as the GFS claims it will get. The GFS is forecasting western Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland to get below zero at the surface, with Hope, BC getting into the minus 20's Fahrenheit. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Surface temps are basically useless in the models at that range. 850 bottom out around -15C on there, would be noteworthy but attainable

[TT-SEA]

We went to school the 19th.

 

That should REALLY piss Tim off. We had 2-3 inches of snow that morning at the coast and STILL had school.

 

 

I am sooooooo pissed about that!!!   

[SouthHillFrosty]

I’m getting the cold is key however we need moisture and there doesn’t seem to be a lot...

[GHweatherChris]

Wow, didn't expect to see a long rant about the Seattle School District today.. I see the normal players are playing above form on the forum today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Surface temps are basically useless in the models at that range. 850 bottom out around -15C on there, would be noteworthy but attainable

 

That said, it's still over a week out. I'm in wait-and-see mode. I've been burned too many times in the past to put much faith in forecasts this long-range. Though I will say that the general trend in all models of forecasting below-normal temperatures is encouraging.