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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Spectacular run... for Seattle. Needs some work for PDX.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Sorry you had to go to a funeral. They do suck. I could go to a funeral of a stranger and would hate it. My condolences.

 

And I am looking forward to your input.

Thanks man. I’m a vortex confused emotions for sure.

 

As for the models/pattern coming up, while I haven’t had a chance to look in depth, my guess is it’s another case of the GFS rushing the propagation of AAM/climax of anticyclonic surf and some RWD mishandling by the ECMWF/EPS. The highest potential with this was always the second half of January.

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Spectacular run... for Seattle. Needs some work for PDX.

Still lots of time for things to change. Certainly not a lock for Seattle to see snow yet either. Promising signs but still too many diffrences in details among the models.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Hey Phil, I apologize if my post was in bad taste. Hope it wasn’t anyone super close to you.

Thanks, I appreciate it. He was much closer to my sister than myself, but still close enough to cast a dark shadow over things, and force some self reflection as well.

 

Happy new year.

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Very passable GFS run with incredible stuff at the end just like the 12z.  At this point it looks highly likely Seattle will have snow.  As always the question is how much.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The ensemble mean drops below -9 over SEA by the 12th or so.  Really solid.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Thanks, I appreciate it. He was much closer to my sister than myself, but still close enough to cast a dark shadow over things, and force some self reflection as well.

 

Happy new year.

I am sorry for you and your sisters loss! In the last few years we have also had our share of passing loved ones and a friend who died suddenly of cardiac arrest in his sleep. I totally sympathize for you, and know that feeling very well. Take care and safe travels home!  

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Still lots of time for things to change. Certainly not a lock for Seattle to see snow yet either. Promising signs but still too many diffrences in details among the models.

 

This is more solid than you think it is.  Every run shows Seattle decent amounts of snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Very passable GFS run with incredible stuff at the end just like the 12z. At this point it looks highly likely Seattle will have snow. As always the question is how much.

20200104-151537.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18z 850mb mean stays a degree or two colder than the 12z mean through D11.

 

The improvement is pretty stark.  Over half of the members are below -9 at one point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Loosing people close to you is f***** hard and you never get over it but we are resilient creatures and learn how to understand it and deal with it. One amazing thing that happens is instead of crying when you think of the loved one you lost as some time goes by you will smile and laugh when you think of all those great times you had. When I think of my wife I remember how awesome of a woman she was and I just smile! I'm very sorry for the loss Phil.

 Well I sure didn't expect a micro-climate dust storm to happen right over my easy chair.  Sorry for both of your losses.  :(

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If something does happen I'll be rooting for an inch or two of snow :)

 

Fun times ahead, maybe?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Weatherbell maps show plenty of lowland snow.  Also a big snow and cold at the end.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You could say the GFS is a wee bit pretty at the end.  Plenty of nice stuff in the 7 to 14 day period also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It seems like it usually takes the snowfall maps showing ridiculous amounts for us to score.  We have certainly checked that box for several runs now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That SW flow over BC should drive it down our throats by hour 396.

 

A bit obtuse?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The one thing I am really liking about the recent models is they have only weak easterly gradients for the Puget Sound area during the cold weather.  We do much better when the offshore flow is weak or gradients are northerly.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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NWS Seattle introducing the 's' word as early as Wednesday night for the EPSL.

 

So it begins.

 

I thought we were told this was still 10 days out earlier in the day though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This could surpass last February.

February 2019 was a historic event. We should probably wait and see how this one plays out before making those comparisons lol. There's encouraging signs but we don't even have the full details on the first round of cold air...let alone how the potential for more reloads will play out. Could just end up being a several day event...maybe it'll be more who knows.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Now we're getting somewhere.

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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February 2019 was a historic event. We should probably wait and see how this one plays out before making those comparisons lol. There's encouraging signs but we don't even have the full details on the first round of cold air...let alone how the potential for more reloads will play out. Could just end up being a several day event...maybe it'll be more who knows.

 

I have seen what appears to be a warning shot 5 to 7 days end up being the beginning of the big stuff.  With more accurate models now that might be less likely this time, but still possible we could be off to the races next weekend. We shall see!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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850mb temp mean down to -7.7 on the 12th, coldest yet with that initial push of arctic air.

Honest question-- does this pattern have a decent chance of delivering at least some snow to PDX? Surface temps are difficult to nail down this far out but the lack of cold air intrusion that far south concerns me.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Honest question-- does this pattern have a decent chance of delivering at least some snow to PDX? Surface temps are difficult to nail down this far out but the lack of cold air intrusion that far south concerns me.

No man. The valley will see BSF.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I have seen what appears to be a warning shot 5 to 7 days end up being the beginning of the big stuff.  With more accurate models now that might be less likely this time, but still possible we could be off to the races next weekend. We shall see!

It looks very good right now no denying that. Weve just gotta keep waiting and let the details fall into place. Encouraging signs yes but don't want to get ahead of ourselves and call this another February 2019 when its not even starting for a week or so. Looking likely that cold and potentially snow are on the way though.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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