Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[kokaneekidz]

FCOJ contracts are going down.

[Phil]

The control run isn’t “bad” either. Sure it’s more like the operational ECMWF initially, but, similarly, it would probably get there eventually, as it develops an even deeper SW-Canada cold pool than the GFS (and a -NAO) as the destructive interference in the tropics finally ends and wave amplification commences.

[Omegaraptor]

January 1880 = holy sh*t January

 

70 years later...

 

January 1950 = holy sh*t January

 

70 years later...

[Deweydog]

16 years ago right now things had just switched to ICE.

[TT-SEA]

The control run isn’t “bad” either. Sure it’s more like the operational ECMWF initially, but, similarly, it would probably get there eventually, as it develops an even deeper SW-Canada cold pool than the GFS (and a -NAO) as the destructive interference in the tropics finally ends and wave amplification commences.

 

 

Control run at day 10... this will be considered very "bad" by this group compared to what we have seen on other models.

 

[AbbyJr]

One thing that may be concerning is that by January 18th, the 500 mb pattern falls apart on the EPS. Though probably nothing to be super worried about as its 13 days away. The good news is that the EPS seems to be improving in the short-mid range, which is much better than it being epic in the long range and then falling apart in the short to mid. That said, the GEFS is a different story. The 500 mb pattern looks good through the end of the run. It also does appear that the GFS may be leading the way, as the other models are caving to it in the short-mid range.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the EPS is stuck at 318 hours.

[SorboTheGeek]

I could make them meet in the middle. Just gotta grab my easel and start painting.

 

Use a Sharpie! DM me if you need a guy. I know of someone who's good with one on weather maps. 

[Farmboy]

EPS warming up faster after day 10 than previous runs.

This post seems to have slipped past everyone. I'd post it one more time...

[Jesse]

It would appear that the operational Euro is the odd man out at this juncture.

[TT-SEA]

This post seems to have slipped past everyone. I'd post it one more time...

 

Just mentioning its still stuck.   Normally finished by 11:40 a.m.

[Winterdog]

How’s this for a flash freeze forecast? From my Davis software pkg

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It would appear that the operational Euro is the odd man out at this juncture.

Look at this graph, for Seattle (similar to any other place in the PNW).  Huge difference between the mean and the operational:

 

[The Swamp]

Jim? Jim?

 

Are my snow monsters in jeopardy?

[TT-SEA]

Jim? Jim?

 

Are my snow monsters in jeopardy?

Best news is you still have the EPS on board for early next week.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

How’s this for a flash freeze forecast? From my Davis software pkg

Now that's an Arctic Front!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Look at this graph, for Seattle (similar to any other place in the PNW).  Huge difference between the mean and the operational:

 

epsvsecmwf.png

Should have mentioned that the main run is at 45 degrees.  90% of the ensemble members are at or below 39.

[Front Ranger]

It would appear that the operational Euro is the odd man out at this juncture.

 

It's the least favorable scenario, but it's not like the other models/ensembles are all in perfect agreement either.

 

GFS has been by far the most aggressive with the cold air, and everything else is somewhere in between that and the Euro.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

More from the 12z JMA. It goes farther out on the French website than on tidbits. At day 9, 850mb temperatures are -15C PDX North. YVR gets close to -20C.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_216_0850.gif

[MossMan]

How’s the NOGAPS looking?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I don't know whether or not EPS snowfall maps are as reliable as temperature maps or 500mb maps, but the snowfall maps through hour 348 are a little bit more snowy for Western WA/OR then last nights 0Z EPS through hour 360.   

[TT-SEA]

Here's high/lo temps shown by the 12z EPS.

 

Certainly a little warmer than the GFS ensembles but not too bad considering it's a mean...

 

 

 

 

 

I usually think the EPS will trend warmer if the operational and control run are significantly warmer... and the opposite if they are colder. 

 

This time could be different though since the EPS trended colder than its previous run in the 8-10 day period. 

[TT-SEA]

That being said... even the "cold" EPS does not show a below freezing day at SEA.  

 

But its close for a couple days.

[kokaneekidz]

Well the Maunder Minimum has been given a re-birth by Buddham saranang gacchami. Thanks and I am going to give alms to the temple tomorrow at 11AM and Wed at 7PM. Double the duty double the ROI

[Blizzard777]

How’s this for a flash freeze forecast? From my Davis software pkg

Your Davis has my Davis beat !

[MossMan]

Davis must be linked to the GFS!

[Perturbed Member]

Doom has descended upon the forum.

[MossMan]

She’s just sitting there waiting and waiting and waiting...

[Blizzard777]

Davis must be linked to the GFS!

I would be curious to see what weather model they follow but GFS looks like it’s possible 

[TT-SEA]

My phone appears to be following the EPS... does not show any below freezing days here.     Definitely way warmer than the GFS but not as warm as the ECMWF.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro weeklies coming out right now and they look good through about day 15. Control run on the weeklies looks a lot like the GFS. 

CFS is also on board. 

 

[North_County]

36° with wind out of the NE. Raindrops are a little on the chunky side.

[ttt]

       

 

 

      

 

[TT-SEA]

Euro weeklies coming out right now and they look good through about day 15. Control run on the weeklies looks a lot like the GFS. 

 

 

 

ECMWF weeklies at day 15 look just like what the EPS has been showing... not arctic but still chilly.

 

And then is stays cool for the central and western US for the rest of the run.   Should be a good few weeks for the mountains.

 

[Deweydog]

How’s the NOGAPS looking?

Took big steps toward the MRF today which shows a 588dm ridge centered just west of Cape Flattery next Monday.

[Blizzard777]

She’s just sitting there waiting and waiting and waiting...

Fixed it

edit!

[Perturbed Member]

NAVGEM has spoken, the 516 line never gets further in than NE Washington. It's over. NAVGEM and OP ECMWF have formed an alliance. 

 

[Front Ranger]

She’s just sitting there waiting and waiting and waiting...

 

Nobody puts baby in a corner!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Fixed it

Brilliant! You are quite the artist!

[MossMan]