Skagit Weather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00Z EPS for Tuesday... colder than 12Z run. As expected at this point. It might just be my computer, but about half the images you have posted tonight appear as 2" thumbnails. Sure I can see the general pattern, but details are very difficult to distinguish. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I haven't quite figured out whether it's better to look at the model runs first or read the forum first before checking the models. Just got back to my computer and I looked at the GFS and Euro and couldn't wait to hear the enthusiasm on here. Let's just say it more than delivered my entertainment for the night. Hopefully good runs remain ahead 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 when would be the last year cold of this magnitude came to Western Washington? I would have to say Dec 1990. This is modeled to have more teeth than Dec 1998 at least by the GFS and GEM. As I've mentioned the WRF is the coldest I have ever seen. Even the ECMWF tonight shows high temps next Tuesday or Wednesday being low to mid 20s for the Seattle area. As for January...this could easily be the coldest in 50 years. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I would have to say Dec 1990. This is modeled to have more teeth than Dec 1998 at least by the GFS and GEM. As I've mentioned the WRF is the coldest I have ever seen. Even the ECMWF tonight shows high temps next Tuesday or Wednesday being low to mid 20s for the Seattle area. As for January...this could easily be the coldest in 50 years. Pretty crazy if this verifies. Even if it doesn't end up quite as cold as some projections cold is a pretty good bet now. Snow is always harder to pin down the details of. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Historic would have to beat 1949/1950 and the all time record low of 0! Historic is actually like top 5%. It depends how you define it. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Pretty crazy if this verifies. Even if it doesn't end up quite as cold as some projections cold is a pretty good bet now. Snow is always harder to pin down the details of. I think one of the best ways to guess snowfall is whether you're talking about a PNA block or an EPO block. PNA blocks are usually better snow producers and that's what this is. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Government Camp is foreshadowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Snow has begun, kind of light though. 1/10" on the ground as of midnight. Gonna have to log this stuff more diligently these next couple weeks.. almost every day in the forecast is some kind of snow. 3 Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The chance of snow Friday Morning North of Seattle isn't getting much attention because of all the craziness after, but it does look briefly interesting. 850's drop to -8 ahead of that system Thursday and there is offshore flow with good timing of moisture arriving during the early morning. I could see a wet 1-2" on grassy surfaces in hills North of Seattle (and especially North of Everett and in Kitsap) early Friday morning. 5 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 The chance of snow Friday Morning North of Seattle isn't getting much attention because of all the craziness after, but it does look briefly interesting. 850's drop to -8 ahead of that system Thursday and there is offshore flow with good timing of moisture arriving during the early morning. I could see a wet 1-2" on grassy surfaces in hills North of Seattle (and especially North of Everett and in Kitsap) early Friday morning. Snohomish County looks to do quite well if the high resolution WRF is to be believed. Some of this falls Thursday as well. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Skier B Posted January 8, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Just for you, snow wizard!! 1969 near SeaTac Airport. Found these while moving my uncle out of his house. My grandfather sent them to him when he was over seas fighting in the Vietnam War. Grandpa noted he had to shovel the roof multiple times over the duration of the event. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 IF the GFS OP runs continue to feature a major arctic blast and timing moves ahead I would imagine the ensembles will only trend colder. I would like to see the EURO today slow down the progress of the cut-off low around the block so we can firmly establish the arctic air well down into Oregon. It seems to be historic cold is still very possible. Fun times ahead! C'MON!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 06z GFS running now Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Day 4 Actually getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wow. Day 4 is even colder in central BC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 06z much more amplified with the approaching trough. Snowier for Western Washington in general with the first system. Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Colder at Day 4 heading into Day 5. This looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Day 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Day 5 850s. Timing moved up and southward movement of arctic air is even more aggressive this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 OMG PV lobe moving down into Eastern Washington! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Western W. Snow. This was shown as cold rain previously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 My goodness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 WOW. Cold air arrives 4-8 PM Sunday! Day 5.5. 850s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 My GOD this is a cold run. Good heavens. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Day 6 850s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 By Day 6 510 thickness is south of Seattle crossing Olympia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Day 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Good ol' 1049 High 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Ladies and Gentleman(and furry woodland creatures) This is the coldest run I've EVER seen. More than any Drunk Uncle, Drunk Cousin, Drunk Grandfather, anything AND it's at Day 5-6! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 Wow. 504 thickness PDX, 502 Seattle, 498 near The Dalles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 00z GFS: This is the coldest run you've ever seen within 180 hours. 06z GFS: Hold my frozen beer... 4 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 It's about to get stupid around the PNW isn't it? BRING IT ON! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I mean, check out the output for the highs on Tuesday 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 It's about to bring that snowmaker low a little bit north this run at hour 192. May very well be snowy all around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I can't even comprehend this run. ...... You serious, Eddie? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 This just amazing. FRAME IT ©Rob 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 8, 2020 Report Share Posted January 8, 2020 I can't even comprehend this run. ...... You serious, Eddie?I believe the line Rob is, You serious Clark? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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