Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Here's through next Saturday morning...

 

50-60” of snow here. This is a good run.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here it is!

 

After this Germany created its' own model we now know as the ICON.

[TT-SEA]

Surprise snow here.

 

Coming down hard and sticking now.  

[Perturbed Member]

It's over...

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
233 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020

 

...CHANCES INCREASING FOR LOWLAND SNOW NEXT WEEK...

A pair of strong cold fronts will move across the Pacific
Northwest through the weekend, and the pattern will turn
significantly colder next week. These cold fronts will likely
bring heavy snow to the Cascades. Snow levels are expected to
remain well above the valley floors through Sunday.

The colder air is expected to move into southwest Washington and
northwest Oregon early next week, potentially cold enough to bring
snow levels down to the valley floor. An increasing number of
forecast models are suggesting additional disturbances from the
Gulf of Alaska which would spread moisture into that colder air.
This will raise the chance for snow down to the lowest elevations
next week.

While accumulations, distribution, and/or timing of snow remain
uncertain, confidence is increasing in the overall threat of snow
next week, even for the lowest elevations. Now is a good time to
make sure you are prepared in the event that all of the necessary
ingredients come together for a significant snow event next week.

[Front Ranger]

Jim is going to lose his when he gets home and sees these runs.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Coldest ensemble mean yet at PDX by a whisker. -13.0C

Very good news. GFS is not backing down one bit.

[TT-SEA]

Absolute. Brilliance.

 

 

I laugh out loud every time I watch this.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

SWS just issued for the south valley.

[Deweydog]

It's over...

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Portland OR

233 PM PST Wed Jan 8 2020

 

...CHANCES INCREASING FOR LOWLAND SNOW NEXT WEEK...

 

A pair of strong cold fronts will move across the Pacific

Northwest through the weekend, and the pattern will turn

significantly colder next week. These cold fronts will likely

bring heavy snow to the Cascades. Snow levels are expected to

remain well above the valley floors through Sunday.

 

The colder air is expected to move into southwest Washington and

northwest Oregon early next week, potentially cold enough to bring

snow levels down to the valley floor. An increasing number of

forecast models are suggesting additional disturbances from the

Gulf of Alaska which would spread moisture into that colder air.

This will raise the chance for snow down to the lowest elevations

next week.

 

While accumulations, distribution, and/or timing of snow remain

uncertain, confidence is increasing in the overall threat of snow

next week, even for the lowest elevations. Now is a good time to

make sure you are prepared in the event that all of the necessary

ingredients come together for a significant snow event next week.

Yikes.

 

Gonna have to sacrifice some live chickens and Tims to counteract that piece of work.

[Omegaraptor]

Omak forecast for Tuesday is now 6/1. Wenatchee is 16/6.

 

#itscoming

[runninthruda206]

Meanwhile the seattle forecast discussion still playing it very VERY conservative...

[TT-SEA]

Very positive splat test...

 

[jakerepp]

lol didn't notice this earlier. I just started posting on here alot since February last year. Rarely posted before then. That event really got me back into being more intensely interested in the climo of the region. Have been following the weather a lot more closely rain snow hot or cold since then. Even during the summer doldrums I was on here posting still when about 75% of the forum is off not paying attention to the weather.

I definitely left after the snow ended and then only returned in the last few weeks. 

[Esquimalt]

Sadly the 18Z gfs op was on its own with the heavy precip solution

[MossMan]

Very positive splat test...

 

And so it begins...

[MossMan]

Snowing in Marysville according to a friend on FB.

[Winterdog]

Down to 37 now. I think we will get some accumulating snow by tomorrow afternoon here.️

[Skagit Weather]

Here's a trend of GFS 850 mb temps over the last three days for roughly the coldest part of the blast.

 

It's amazing how consistent it has been that we are going to have Arctic air. It's still not a certainty, but certainly nice to see.

 

[FroYoBro]

Yikes.

 

Gonna have to sacrifice some live chickens and Tims to counteract that piece of work.

Really seems silly. What’s even the point of saying this when it is still so uncertain?

[Skagit Weather]

Snowing in Marysville according to a friend on FB.

 

I guess it's time to start checking the WSDOT cams again...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sadly the 18Z gfs op was on its own with the heavy precip solution

 

For now...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[seattleweatherguy]

Snowing in Marysville according to a friend on FB.

I believe it!

[Skagit Weather]

High Wind Watch issued for North Sound and Coast for Friday morning. Could be one of the strongest storms of the season up here, not that that is saying much. Usually NWS issues one when the WRF shows at least a little orange out in the strait.

 

 

[jakerepp]

Positive splats in Tukwila as I’m warming up my car.

[Winterdog]

Snowing here now. Mark it down on all your calendars that this was the day I saw my first flake of the winter.

[TT-SEA]

Strange set up... we have moderate snow and its sticking to the roads but in North Bend it looks like its dry and you can see even the top of Mt Si.   

 

This is just 2 miles away...

 

[Winterdog]

Proof

[Timmy Supercell]

Hey you guys actually have more snow on the ground than I do.

 

The tables are surely going to turn shortly though

[Deweydog]

Really seems silly. What’s even the point of saying this when it is still so uncertain?

Seems like a pretty reasonable write up given what we know now. If things go t*ts up they can just pull it. No harm done.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

Really seems silly. What’s even the point of saying this when it is still so uncertain?

 

Gotta uphold tradition.

[Front Ranger]

Meanwhile the seattle forecast discussion still playing it very VERY conservative...

 

Hasn't been updated yet this afternoon, it appears?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow great to see you guys scoring up north!

[runninthruda206]

Hasn't been updated yet this afternoon, it appears?

 

 

Nope I don't think so, I had just read the latest one from the morning!

[Deweydog]

Wow great to see you guys scoring up north!

528 line just came by here Andrew. Heads up!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 18z NAVGEM trended colder for next week.

 

18z:

 

 

12z:

 

[FroYoBro]

A little snow up north and pdx is down to 45.

 

 

THIS WINTER RULES!

[Timmy Supercell]

A little snow up north and pdx is down to 45.

 

 

THIS WINTER RULES!

 

Just a little bit further south...

 

#TigerOrgasm.png

[Deweydog]

A little snow up north and pdx is down to 45.

 

 

THIS WINTER RULES!

Could be a fun night of ringing in the sub-40 new year!