Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

I am only posting the WRF to cut through all the depression in here today. I think at this point anything can happen with the CZ.

True.

 

As Matt said... the 18Z run tomorrow will have the final say!

[Jesse]

I'd like to move to Indiana where they have actual seasons.

Have you seen some of the INSANE snow totals in the Cascades the last few days?

[MossMan]

When the ECMWF and WRF disagree in the short range on surface details... the WRF is very often wrong.

 

Both actually show me getting about 5” or so.

[TT-SEA]

Both actually show me getting about 5” or so.

 

We all know you are golden either way!

[Weather1011]

But I love it. I don't know why, I just do.

 

Personally, I'd love a quick hitter with less than 4" of snow so I can make a few snow monsters. Then I really want it to go the **** away. Like in a day or two.

 

I think I'm going to get what I want plus all the drama here.

 

I do have to take an occasional break from snow monster making.

 

LOL you are definitely going to get what you want if the models are correct so enjoy

[Jesse]

Both actually show me getting about 5” or so.

You’re going to get snow, like always. I wouldn’t sweat it.

[umadbro]

The collective meltdown right now is my favorite one since I joined in 2014. Nothing being held back, everyone is fair game. Almost makes the rug pull worth it.

[Phil]

Was thinking about this the other day. Humanity is so lacking in context and always thinks theirs is the first generation to experience something, or any crisis. Compare the current state of world affairs to any other time in human history and we have made INCREDIBLE progress. Yet we have people who think the sky is literally falling. I think some of that is necessary, we need to be looking to continually evolve and progress, but a lot it is narcissistic noise.

The human mind tends to take a linear perspective on things based on the nature of its fleeting existence. The ego/self is the problem re: objectivity and relativity/perspective. These “super-computers we reference in our climate projections are, at a deeper level, extensions of our own minds..they’re merely tuned to compute the selective knowledge we reveal them to. In reality we’re smarter than the computers and our brains are much more efficient. But because our brains have so many more functions to operate, there are limits to what can/cannot be processed within a given interval of time.

[Winterdog]

Holy crap 6 inches for me!! Yes please

Thats from the 0Z. Very old news.

[Jesse]

The collective meltdown right now is my favorite one since I joined in 2014. Nothing being held back, everyone is fair game. Almost makes the rug pull worth it.

I picture you wearing sunglasses and a leather jacket with your thumbs sticking out of the pockets standing by a jukebox right now.

[FroYoBro]

The 18z nam shows a random little weak low/vortex going right south of Portland during the day Tuesday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It doesn’t alway have to be one extreme or the other. I think the black and white type of thinking is a bigger problem than what you are talking about. There are some pretty dire problems that face us that do need solving, and it’s good to acknowledge them and not stick our heads in the proverbial sand. At the same time, you are correct that we are actually living in relatively good, stable times for humanity. It is easy to get caught up in the hype and think the world is ending. The extremist hype is actually counterproductive to solving the problems that face us, IMO. Look at all the ridiculous exaggeration of the situation in Australia that had spread across the the internet, for instance. If anything I think it just numbs people altogether or makes them feel helpless to do anything.

 

Yeah I agree. In the arena of climate change I think you do not quite believe me when I say I believe it is real. I do. We just probably disagree about the appropriate response. I believe humans are adaptable and resourceful creatures, we are already moving away from fossil fuels and in a generation or two will have moved beyond. I believe climate change has a natural component and a human caused component. I also believe the most extreme and devastating effects of climate change are not caused by fossil fuels, but by urbanization and poor land use practices at the local level. We should be more focused on conservation of lands and addressing land use practices in developing nations then trying to tell people what they can and cannot drive, when those habits are already changing. 

[Requiem]

I was never expecting much snow, but I’m going to hold out for a few surprises. I’m banking on my elevation to help me this time haha (it kinda did last year)

[Phil]

Assuming you're accurate above, how many people were living on this planet during the 8" in 2 year sea level rise?

Actually, early humans nearly went extinct during the younger dryas, and there was a large scale mass extinction as well, which killed off many of the megafauna including the mammoths.

 

It’s a miracle we survived these climate changes without the luxuries we have today.

[Jesse]

Actually, early humans nearly went extinct during the younger dryas, and there was a mass extinction as well that killed off many of the megafauna including the mammoths.

It’s a miracle we survived these climate changes without the luxuries we have today.

Lots of signs pointing to a genetic bottleneck for early humanity.

 

We’re probably more due for another one of those than we are for a SOLID January.

[Esquimalt]

Thats from the 0Z. Very old news.

Shoot. Got excited there

[BLI snowman]

The 18z nam shows a random little weak low/vortex going right south of Portland during the day Tuesday.

Petition to have the NAM renamed to the JIM.

[El_Nina]

The Bible teaches us all have fallen short of the kingdom of heaven. It is by grace we are saved.

 

Spin move

[SouthHillFrosty]

Tim's wife made the cold go away.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Have you seen some of the INSANE snow totals in the Cascades the last few days?

 

I don't have a way to get over there.

[Weather1011]

There's always next winter!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z nam shows a random little weak low/vortex going right south of Portland during the day Tuesday. 

 

That's a new feature. Something to watch. Would bring some brief heavyish snow, but the timing isn't great for more than T-1" at the valley floor level. It still takes the Monday low way south. 

[Jesse]

Yeah I agree. In the arena of climate change I think you do not quite believe me when I say I believe it is real. I do. We just probably disagree about the appropriate response. I believe humans are adaptable and resourceful creatures, we are already moving away from fossil fuels and in a generation or two will have moved beyond. I believe climate change has a natural component and a human caused component. I also believe the most extreme and devastating effects of climate change are not caused by fossil fuels, but by urbanization and poor land use practices at the local level. We should be more focused on conservation of lands and addressing land use practices in developing nations then trying to tell people what they can and cannot drive, when those habits are already changing.

 

To continue in this vein, I think the current trend of tying all environmental issues to climate change is extremely dangerous and short sighted for a variety of reasons.

 

So what, if the science turns out to be wrong we will no longer have any reason to be good environmental stewards?

[OysterPrintout]

The 18z nam shows a random little weak low/vortex going right south of Portland during the day Tuesday.

I seem to remember that little piggybacking low from some older gfs runs

[Jesse]

I don't have a way to get over there.

There are lots of webcams. I’d be happy to come pick you up sometime too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The orographics are great today. Radar hasn't shown much, but it has been raining the entire day up here. When I checked the gauge around 9am we had 0.55" since midnight. Temp bouncing around in the upper 30s, has dipped to 36 a couple times and even had some snow mixed in around 1130.

[HighlandExperience]

Shoot. Got excited there

The 12z did not look terrible for you

[TigerWoodsLibido]

There are lots of webcams. I’d be happy to come pick you up sometime too.

 

Would be great.  Just want to make sure to time it when there is snow falling lol.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This has been undeniably much needed and great for the mountains. Which in the big picture is a lot more important than if it snows below 3000'. 

 

Timberline up to an 84" base now, even lower elevation Hoodoo is about to hit 50". They weren't even open last weekend because their snow pack had dwindled below 15".

[Jesse]

Kind of a fun article. I remember taking pictures of these signs for posterity when visiting the park with my brother a decade or so ago.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/01/08/us/glaciers-national-park-2020-trnd/index.html

[High Desert Mat?]

I seem to remember that little piggybacking low from some older gfs runs

Doesn’t matter much when there’s not really any cold. Even over here we don’t have any highs forecasted to be below freezing. I think I just saw a cherry blossom.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Doesn’t matter much when there’s not really any cold. Even over here we don’t have any highs forecasted to be below freezing. I think I just saw a cherry blossom.

Tons of snow just south of Bend all the way here.

[fubario]

I think it is funny when people try to identify any low withing 1000 miles of Hawaii as a "Kona Low."

The "Kona Low" represents "Kona winds", which locals in Hawai'i call South winds.

[snow_wizard]

Obviously I'm far from happy with the models pulling back on the cold, but ignoring what could have been we still have potential for a solid cold and snow event.  The Sunday night / Monday snow potential for King County appears to be in trouble, but now the low that swings across NW OR Monday evening appears to be in play for bringing snowfal to this area.  Probably the biggest story on the good side of the coin is the mid week low now appears it will move inland somewhere between Olympia and Mount Vernon or so.  Anyone north of that low could get dumped on big time.  Let's hope future runs continue to like the idea of a weaker low which would undoubtedly be a better case for the Seattle area.

 

On the question of cold...it still appears the Seattle area will have 3 or 4 days with highs in the 25 to 35 degree range.  Whatcom County should still be set to see some impressive cold.

 

In short it's still going to get cold and most places from about Salem north will have snow.  Not terrible, but not what it could have been it appears.  Oddly the combination of probably losing the epic stuff, but still being set for the potential for a good event has left me in a surprisingly calm state today.  Almost unheard of for me in a situation like this.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Weather1011]

Obviously I'm far from happy with the models pulling back on the cold, but ignoring what could have been we still have potential for a solid cold and snow event. The Sunday night / Monday snow potential for King County appears to be in trouble, but now the low that swings across NW OR Monday evening appears to be in play for bringing snowfal to this area. Probably the biggest story on the good side of the coin is the mid week low now appears it will move inland somewhere between Olympia and Mount Vernon or so. Anyone north of that low could get dumped on big time. Let's hope future runs continue to like the idea of a weaker low which would undoubtedly be a better case for the Seattle area.

 

On the question of cold...it still appears the Seattle area will have 3 or 4 days with highs in the 25 to 35 degree range. Whatcom County should still be set to see some impressive cold.

 

In short it's still going to get cold and most places from about Salem north will have snow. Not terrible, but not what it could have been it appears. Oddly the combination of probably losing the epic stuff, but still being set for the potential for a good event has left me in a surprisingly calm state today. Almost unheard of for me in a situation like this.

That's good don't get your Hope's up for no reason!

[fubario]

Fall of 2002 in Portland. Analog!??!??!!!

 

Funny thing is I remember wondering if it would be their last tour. Then went to five shows after that. As I said yesterday the gorge show was absolutely unreal. They took it to completely different level.

 

I’ve never responded to a celebrity death like this. There was something about those guys that you just connected with. I’ve read some of Neil’s books, the guy was ridiculously brilliant.

 I was at the Gorge show. Incredible. Honestly they were as good...or better, every time I saw them. My 1st show was in '84...2 shows in Hawai'i.

[snow_wizard]

One more thing...it has been normal for the cold snaps the last couple of seasons to verify a bit colder than what is modeled a couple of days out so we might see a slight improvement in the home stretch.

 

On another note it seems the models have a very tough time with uber negative PNA situations.  It was a similar situation that gave the models fits in Janaury 2005 as well.  Thank God we will at least have a better outcome than we did that time.

[seattleweatherguy]

Obviously I'm far from happy with the models pulling back on the cold, but ignoring what could have been we still have potential for a solid cold and snow event.  The Sunday night / Monday snow potential for King County appears to be in trouble, but now the low that swings across NW OR Monday evening appears to be in play for bringing snowfal to this area.  Probably the biggest story on the good side of the coin is the mid week low now appears it will move inland somewhere between Olympia and Mount Vernon or so.  Anyone north of that low could get dumped on big time.  Let's hope future runs continue to like the idea of a weaker low which would undoubtedly be a better case for the Seattle area.

 

On the question of cold...it still appears the Seattle area will have 3 or 4 days with highs in the 25 to 35 degree range.  Whatcom County should still be set to see some impressive cold.

 

In short it's still going to get cold and most places from about Salem north will have snow.  Not terrible, but not what it could have been it appears.  Oddly the combination of probably losing the epic stuff, but still being set for the potential for a good event has left me in a surprisingly calm state today.  Almost unheard of for me in a situation like this.

 

Yea bummer but so far bothell seems to be in the borderline and could squeze some snow out of it. Close enough to the snohomish county border

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

 

 

To continue in this vein, I think the current trend of tying all environmental issues to climate change is extremely dangerous and short sighted for a variety of reasons.

 

So what, if the science turns out to be wrong we will no longer have any reason to be good environmental stewards?

 

 

I agree. In the United States the misuse of our Public Lands by corporate interests through sweetheart deals especially galls me. I am pretty radical about private property rights, but some of the grazing allotments and timber deals we see in the American West are appalling.