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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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Ok so every professional met in the northwest agrees there will be arctic air over the area Tuesday But according to this forum there is not?

 

Technically it will be Arctic.  Fraser River air will be over Whatcom County and it will drop south when the surface gradients become northerly.  One thing for sure is it will be noticeably cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Technically it will be Arctic. Fraser River air will be over Whatcom County and it will drop south when the surface gradients become northerly. One thing for sure is it will be noticeably cold.

It will definitely feel chilly

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We spent a few days in Poulsbo the week before Christmas. Great little town, I really liked it. A lot of cool Scandinavian heritage.

 

How does that area generally do for snow? I know some spots on the Kitsap can do quite well thanks to the topography/influence of cold air damming along the Olympics.

 

Great place to raise a family--and work is close by at Bangor.  We are often in a dead hole over here, even though we're close to hood canal.  That said, sometimes we do well while others not so much.  Last February was the first time I saw snow here in 3 years though.

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Holy crap!  

 

I almost wonder if the NWS is being too agressive with their forecast.  Pretty hard core.  For the EPSL they have lots of snow for all areas and then lows 18 to 25 Monday night.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The majority of us on here should at least see some snow and cold windy weather. I think there's going to be some surprises this week where a few location get a lot of snow that weren't expecting it. Going to be a fun week tracking everything! ❄☃

 

I really have my eye on the mid week thing.  The trends on that are very favorable for Seattle and the late week time frame has trended colder as well.  The 18z ensemble has 850s bottoming out at -8 after the snow with weak offshore flow.  Solidly cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Great place to raise a family--and work is close by at Bangor.  We are often in a dead hole over here, even though we're close to hood canal.  That said, sometimes we do well while others not so much.  Last February was the first time I saw snow here in 3 years though.

 

Are you serious?  We did pretty good the two winters before that here.  I'm really surprised.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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So..this event will be a win for me if it beats out December 8th, 2016 (which gave PDX an inch or two of snow and a quarter-inch of ZR). If it can get anywhere close to that, I'll be very happy ;D

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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It's from his personal weather website. It's a bold forecast but crazier things have happened.

Interesting.  Wonder what his thinking was to be that aggressive with the cold.  It is bold indeed.  Must be thinking Gorge outflow will be colder?   Not sure. 

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Weird.  The NWS real talk discussion says a trace to 2 inches with some places getting 4, while the EPSL forecast says 2 to 6 inches Sunday night and then snow likely on Monday.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing to note about this situation is brutally cold air will be very close so small changes from what is modeled could have big implications.  A widespread significant snow event could happen for the Central Puget Sound tomorrow night given the circumstances.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Let us hope for a great 0z run.  Any better than the 18z would be great.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing to note about this situation is brutally cold air will be very close so small changes from what is modeled could have big implications.  A widespread significant snow event could happen for the Central Puget Sound tomorrow night given the circumstances.

 

I'm pretty sure this one stays Seattle and points north.

 

When can we start looking at the UW model?

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One thing to note about this situation is brutally cold air will be very close so small changes from what is modeled could have big implications.  A widespread significant snow event could happen for the Central Puget Sound tomorrow night given the circumstances.

 

The cold air is not “very close.” Last I checked, both Cache Creek and Lillooet were still above freezing. Had to go upriver to Kamloops to find a subfreezing temperature, and they were reporting -1˚C.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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Someone on twitter was saying that the 18z had thw low a little bit further south?!

Tim says no. Further north.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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43F and cloudy.  Business as usual.

 

46/39 for a +2.2F departure. That will bring our average down from the +6.1F we are currently at. I doubt those numbers come down much in the next week.  We are too far south.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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