Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It finally makes landfall

Yeah, Thursday evening.

 

[TT-SEA]

hows the weather down there?

 

 

You can always go over to Hapuna Beach if the weather is crappy up there.   Only a 20-minute drive.   

 

We usually just cheat and end up using the pool there at that resort.   We figure we are paying for drinks so we can use the pool.   Nobody ever says anything.   That is one of the best spots on the west side.   Great pool and bar and a beautiful beach.

 

You can also go to Waikoloa or Mauna Lani too.   The Hilton in Waikoloa has a great beach and snorkeling area that is in a protected cove.   There is also a great snorkeling place inside the Mauna Lani resort area that is not well known.   You have to go through a development but the guard at the gate has to let you through because they cannot block access to beaches in Hawaii.    Its down a road with incredible mansions and there is small parking lot at the end.

 

I circled it here...

 

[Perturbed Member]

Makes landfall about the same place as the 06z GFS.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah, Thursday evening.

 

Then regional snowstorm Friday morning.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

BOOM hr 168.

[North_County]

A little less than the 06z but not too shabby.

 

Still think there is a high likelihood that either 1) the front/CZ has more oompf to it than what is currently being modeled or 2) it's drying out the backwash too fast.

 

Both would be even better!

I have been consistently buried in that Sunday/Monday storm with pretty much every model run over the past few days. Much better than last February when every run showed me cold and dry while Puget Sound was getting pummeled (and the models were right).

[Cloud]

Really disappointed with the east wind trend to be honest. What it’s showing in N. Cali for this system should be what it is for the region. Snowfall obviously gets there by the time it pushes in-land but it has weakened quite dramatically.

 

We’ll see where this goes.

[jakerepp]

we will be there every other day I’m sure!

Yeah, that's my favorite place. Went there a couple times in October. 

[TT-SEA]

there is a free 9 hole course here and clubs at the house so we will do it I’m sure, although it was like 25-35 sustained winds yesterday... my dad just retired so when he gets here Monday I know he is wanting to golf

 

 

Once you turn that corner on the north end of the big island... you get into persistent wind and rain when the trade winds are prevailing.

 

But the area around Waikoloa is protected... so much nicer down there.     

 

[jakerepp]

You can always go over to Hapuna Beach if the weather is crappy up there.   Only a 20-minute drive.   

 

We usually just cheat and end up using the pool there at that resort.   We figure we are paying for drinks so we can use the pool.   Nobody ever says anything.   That is one of the best spots on the west side.   Great pool and bar and a beautiful beach.

 

You can also go to Waikoloa or Mauna Lani too.   The Hilton in Waikoloa has a great beach and snorkeling area that is in a protected cove.   There is also a great snorkeling place inside the Mauna Lani resort area that is not well known.   You have to go through a development but the guard at the gate has to let you through because they cannot block access to beaches in Hawaii.    Its down a road with incredible mansions and there is small parking lot at the end.

 

I circled it here...

 

That's where I played golf. 

Here's the view from the green just west of that beach.

[Blizzard777]

6z NAM hammers the South Sound with 2-5" of snow Sunday night in the CZ/Arctic Front combo.

 

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

I may need to adopt the NAM

[Omegaraptor]

Really disappointed with the east wind trend to be honest. What it’s showing in N. Cali for this system should be what it is for the region. Snowfall obviously gets there by the time it pushes in-land but it has weakened quite dramatically.

 

We’ll see where this goes.

 

That heavy precip in the NorCal mountains is par for the course down there. They get much heavier precipitation than the PNW lowlands can dream of. The heavy orographic lift in the Klamath Mountains and south Cascades / Sierras means that anything that hits there goes the distance, those are real Pacific storms.

[Requiem]

1PM Wednesday-1PM Friday...

 

 

Even with the atrocious east wind situation on the GFS, PDX still gets a good 5-7 inches, not bad at all. My confidence of 1-3 inches is increasing!

[TT-SEA]

there is a free 9 hole course here and clubs at the house so we will do it I’m sure, although it was like 25-35 sustained winds yesterday... my dad just retired so when he gets here Monday I know he is wanting to golf

 

I have played the Waikoloa Beach course with my sons several times... right by the Hilton Kings Land resort.    I remember it was pretty reasonable after about 3 or 4 p.m... even with a cart and rentals.

[Cloud]

That heavy precip in the NorCal mountains is par for the course down there. They get much heavier rain than the PNW lowlands.

Completely understand that, I forgot to mention that it should be more widespread than what was modeled. Hope this changes.

[TacomaWaWx]

No snow here this morning...was hoping to score but heck we got the 1/2" yesterday which is more than a lot of people got. Better chances coming next week!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1PM Wednesday-1PM Friday...

 

I'll take it for now.

[Winterdog]

Wow, goes to crap at hour 204, bring back the 0Z please.

[jakerepp]

I have played the Waikoloa Beach course with my sons several times... right by the Hilton Kings Land resort.    I remember it was pretty reasonable after about 3 or 4 p.m... even with a cart and rentals.

I played there a few years back on my Honeymoon. Much more reasonably priced than Mauna Lani or Hapuna. The 7th hole is pretty spectacular.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... the 12Z GFS sure warms it up fast later in the week compared to the 00Z run.    That is what the EPS thinks will happen too.

[jakerepp]

Wow, goes to crap at hour 204, bring back the 0Z please.

Finally showing the cold air pushed out?

[FroYoBro]

My focus for Portland has been on that first potential snow maker Monday evening. 

 

I love to see the 12z showing it a bit colder and snow for Portland. 

[Front Ranger]

I think we are headed to the cabin for the weekend for the cold and snow there then head back home monday for the fun here. Should be pretty nasty over there Sunday night.

Post pics!

[Omegaraptor]

Finally showing the cold air pushed out?

 

Yup. That low spinning up out of the SW brings an end to the event. We've seen it before but it's made a reappearance on the last two runs. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wow... the 12Z GFS sure warms it up fast later in the week compared to the 00Z run. That is what the EPS thinks will happen too.

If we can get a decent snowstorm, followed by some ice and a few days of frozen weather then I'll be satisfied. Take what you can get here in the PNW Western Lowlands.

[Perturbed Member]

Even with a really good track from both the lows (Monday and Wednesday), PDX doesn't really get absurd totals here. I think GFS is becoming pretty sure this isn't going to dump moisture like the older runs showed. Hopefully this storm ends up a bit more dynamic than currently modeled. Will be interesting to see what the mesoscale models show once in range. 

 

12z GFS has TWL winning 

 

[Requiem]

My focus for Portland has been on that first potential snow maker Monday evening. 

 

I love to see the 12z showing it a bit colder and snow for Portland. 

 

Do you think that one has a better chance of being a good storm than the Wednesday system?

[ShawniganLake]

[jakerepp]

Yup. That low spinning up out of the SW brings an end to the event. We've seen it before but it's made a reappearance on the last two runs. 

Bummer. Was hoping that would be a big boon for the GFS. 

[Cloud]

UGLY at 240. Yikes man.

 

NEXT!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Post pics!

You know I will. Going to try and get some action there and back home Sunday night. Kids aren't going so should be easy!

[FroYoBro]

Do you think that one has a better chance of being a good storm than the Wednesday system?

Well, it is closer in time, so that feels a bit more real to me.

 

Hard to say still. I think there is some decent potential with that low. 

[Perturbed Member]

Gross.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Next week's still gonna be interesting. No real telling what will happen after monday really...models are going to struggle past 3ish days with this pattern. Will be lots of fun surprises I'm guessing.

[TacomaWaWx]

Raining pretty hard in Tacoma now...southerly wind event coming later today.

[runninthruda206]

06z Euro didn't look half bad for Sunday.

 

A little further north centered than the GFS. Goes to show that the CZ/front can setup shop just about anywhere.

 

Right over the udist! I will take it

[Blizzard777]

I used a light bulb changer pole that could extend to like 20 feet or more.   Then duct taped a towel on the end.

 

But my wife threw it away this past summer.   <_>

Attach a powerful electric leaf blower pointed towards dish.  Have it on a timer to go off every 15 minutes.  Of course you will need another leaf blower pointed at the other leaf blower to clear it off. You may need to replicate this pattern until the last leaf blower is under cover and will not be effected by snow.  Good luck 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Even with a really good track from both the lows (Monday and Wednesday), PDX doesn't really get absurd totals here. I think GFS is becoming pretty sure this isn't going to dump moisture like the older runs showed. Hopefully this storm ends up a bit more dynamic than currently modeled. Will be interesting to see what the mesoscale models show once in range.

 

12z GFS has TWL winning

 

12z ICON came in wetter with a stronger system. As long as the EURO/EPS keep showing a lot of precipitation then I think we'll be okay.

 

[FroYoBro]

It feels like some people on here expect this cold spell to last a historic amount of time or expect a historically large snowstorm in their city.

 

Those things are always unlikely. (That's what makes them historic) A great week of potential is shaping up though, just try to enjoy it! 

[runninthruda206]

It feels like some people on here expect this cold spell to last a historic amount of time or expect a historically large snowstorm in their city.

 

Those things are always unlikely. (That's what makes them historic) A great week of potential is shaping up though, just try to enjoy it!

True that but wouldn’t it be amazing if it lasted into feb