Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[runninthruda206]

CZ looks to start developing around 5PM and then by 9PM...

 

I am really liking that the Euro is picking up on this signature so nicely. Gives me slightly more confidence for higher totals.

 

 

Sweet! I’m sure it it’ll end up being more also

[jakerepp]

CZ looks to start developing around 5PM and then by 9PM...

 

I am really liking that the Euro is picking up on this signature so nicely. Gives me slightly more confidence for higher totals.

 

So close! Not far from a solid coating for me. 1.5-2 inches as it currently shows isn't too bad. 

[MossMan]

[jakerepp]

From 4AM Sunday through 4AM Monday... Most of this falls after 5PM.

 

Again, really starting to like the look of this for Central Puget Sound.

 

Oh much better. Right about the sweet spot. 

[MossMan]

From 4AM Sunday through 4AM Monday... Most of this falls after 5PM.

 

Again, really starting to like the look of this for Central Puget Sound.

 

Trend north! Trend north!!

[TacomaWaWx]

Trend north! Trend north!!

No! South!

[runninthruda206]

No! South!

NO! STAY PUT!

[SnarkyGoblin]

This run would be rough for the downtown Seattle morning commute.

[jakerepp]

That’s me!

Love all your snow pics with your pups in them. 

My 'niece' would love to play with them

[TacomaWaWx]

This set up seems alot like November 2010. We did quite well here with snowfall that time when the precip dropped south. Get the feeling it'll happen again this time around.

[Perturbed Member]

Euro says f*ck off PDX (Monday night). Good track of the low but a bit too warm. 34F and precip. It is close enough that an inch or two can't be ruled out still. I think K%% should score Monday.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

LOL the FV3 is insane with it's snow amounts.  Those lows are going to warm nose me so hard, there's no way...

[jcmcgaffey]

Nice to see the mountains get hammered the last week or so. Nice cold temps today with the snow.

[TT-SEA]

EURO is way stronger with the CZ Sunday evening than the WRF.

 

Good news.

 

 

And it mainly stays north of I-90 and then actually moves a little norhward before falling apart.   

 

I expected it to push southward into Pierce County.

[jcmcgaffey]

Good time to be checking out Leavenworth as well.

[wxmet]

ECMWF agrees with the GFS with a little over 3in from the c-zone at KSEA. Pretty impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro says f*ck off PDX (Monday night). Good track of the low but a bit too warm. 34F and precip. It is close enough that an inch or two can't be ruled out still. I think K%% should score Monday.  

 

 

Central and South Valley special. 

[Omegaraptor]

Euro is a step back with the Columbia Basin cold pool. Not good.

[Perturbed Member]

Here she is

 

[FroYoBro]

Euro says f*ck off PDX (Monday night). Good track of the low but a bit too warm. 34F and precip. It is close enough that an inch or two can't be ruled out still. I think K%% should score Monday.

 

Looking at the snow map, does the low end up going through southern Oregon? I see snow in the southern valley. Maybe Portland is just missing precip. Intensity?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Central and South Valley special. 

 

In onshore flow? With shadowing? I don't see how. DPs will be in the mid to upper 30s.

[runninthruda206]

Here she is

 

Honestly beautiful

[yellowstone]

From 4AM Sunday through 4AM Monday... Most of this falls after 5PM.

 

Again, really starting to like the look of this for Central Puget Sound. That is a pretty healthy CZ. If it's being underdone at all (which we have seen numerous times in the past), we could score nicely heading into the cold.

 

I'm loving this for me in North Seattle, but I'm also not believing Bellingham gets completely screwed Sunday.  GFS seems much more logical there.  Expecting the best of both seems like wishcasting.  Not sure what to really believe.  In general feeling less optimistic about this and the week than I was a couple days ago. 

[Perturbed Member]

Looking at the snow map, does the low end up going through southern Oregon? I see snow in the southern valley. Maybe Portland is just missing precip. Intensity?

 

yeah low goes through straight across OR, maybe a Florence landfall. PDX doesn't get enough precip rate. Fine balance between cold and precip rate here. The sweet spot is well south of PDX for sure on this map. 

[Omegaraptor]

Euro keeps the warm nose in the eastern part of the Columbia Basin. Also not good. The GFS and Euro just cannot agree.

[MossMan]

Love all your snow pics with your pups in them.

My 'niece' would love to play with them

A cutie!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Close up look at the Monday system. 1-3" from SLE to EUG. 6-8" up here. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Less snow on Wednesday compared to 00Z run.   East wind in charge for the Seattle area.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Just not getting enough ommph out of this thing

 

[MossMan]

November 2010 was brought up earlier...Models way under forecasted how much snow we ended up with in my area...So I’m not panicking...Yet...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

yeah low goes through straight across OR, maybe a Florence landfall. PDX doesn't get enough precip rate. Fine balance between cold and precip rate here. The sweet spot is well south of PDX for sure on this map. 

 

For once we are rooting for a low to trend north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is why PDX gets hosed Monday on the EURO. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Good time to be checking out Leavenworth as well.

Steady light snow all morning, still continuing.  Nothing major for us, but nice to look at, and it is nice that it will stick around.

[TT-SEA]

Snow Thursday afternoon...

 

[HighlandExperience]

Trend north! Trend north!!

You’ve reached your snow quota.

[wxmet]

Good run for Seattle still. Over 4in of snow from the mid week system though Thursday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO is WAY warmer than the GFS by Thursday. 

[Perturbed Member]

The main event on Wednesday is pretty much just ~4 inches now on the latest euro for PDX. The 00z had 7 inches and the 12z before had 9-10. Not exactly a good trend there. 

 

I hope there will be some other dynamics with this low that are maybe better picked up by mesoscale models. 

[Requiem]

Ouch....not a great run for Portland.

[runninthruda206]

Good run for Seattle still. Over 4in of snow from the mid week system though Thursday.

And I’m assuming it’ll be more than that. AND Seattle/N Seattle looks to get that c zone setup Sunday night