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Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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I have a feeling folks up north are gonna be pretty happy in a couple weeks. PDX especially. Rooting for y’all to get buried.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Very positive splat test...  

The best part of a good snowstorm around here IS the disturbance of every day life. It brings out the kids in adults and most people enjoy it. It really is magic around here when it happens and you do

I've been lurking here for years and rarely post, but let me just say this about the ridiculous Tim criticism. 1) You've all added about 100x more attention and energy to these "negative" posts than t

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Just feeling really positive this morning.  I think the overnight FV3 is onto something.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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As well as inconceivable  :rolleyes:

 

 

Not really... it just happened 11 months ago.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Overall, the 12z is another great run through D10. It takes the lofty goals outlined by the 06z and just brings them back down to earth a hair.

 

Still snowy, still cold, still beautiful pattern at 500mb, still tons of potential.

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Not as snowy as the 06z (expected), but still pretty snowy nonetheless.

 

Totals by D10...

That works...other than the finger of blue extending to my area.

 

Call me crazy but I have a feeling a lot of people here will be seeing white soon!

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Great run, though those exact details at play would be somewhat sad for the lower elevations of the Portland metro (warm-nosed for the entire event). But the fact that we're seeing these kinds of systems show up in multiple runs couldn't be more exciting.

Yep, if there's a warm nose around, it will find my house.  My last deep snow (over 4") was in '08. 

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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That works...other than the finger of blue extending to my area.

 

Call me crazy but I have a feeling a lot of people here will be seeing white soon!

 

 

You are so crazy Randy.    ^_^

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yep, if there's a warm nose around, it will find my house. My last deep snow (over 4") was in '08.

Yikes! 34” for December 2008 was just nudged out by February/March 2019 here with a 36” total.
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Crown Point will be fun! Have to dust off the anemometer.

That would be an orgasmic cross-cascade gradient. Spilling over into the McKenzie valley with a continental profile.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all.   But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

 

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around.   It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10.    I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Love that pattern of the surface low pasting Western Washington then dumbbelling around and giving us a Willamette Valley Special.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all.   But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

 

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around.   It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10.    I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.  

 

Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.

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Would like to see the big 3 all looking somewhat similar...Let’s hope the Euro becomes similar to the big G! The big G has led the way so far so let’s hope!

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Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.

GFS could be right... its starting to show consistency. I have no idea. Just offering some thoughts.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GEM is definitely not on board at all. But the GFS has been leading the way with the overall 500mb pattern lately... including when it was showing a warmer solution than the ECMWF a couple days ago for early next week.

 

We will see if the 12Z ECMWF comes around. It was pretty close to the GFS at the 500mb level but did not show any meaningful cold air through day 10. I also remember that Mark Nelsen pointed out that the new GFS has been running too cold in the mid and long range since the upgrade.

 

A cold bias doesn’t matter a single bit if there’s a pressure gradient like this over BC.

5C48DF56-D4D2-4CF0-B418-25E7899F665A.png

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Thank you Tim for bringing us all back down to earth.

Gotta find something, even onto the GEM! I kinda wanna know when was the last time Tim cited the GEM?
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A cold bias doesn’t matter a single bit of there’s a pressure gradient like this over BC.

The cold bias could be part of why it shows that gradient.

 

Again... I will be more confident when the ECMWF shows meaningful cold air within 10 days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Finished December with some heavy rain and windy conditions. 0.49" on new year's to put us at 7.93" for December and 31.32" of rain for the year.

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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Got fairly windy last night here...first real blow of the winter with 45mph~ gusts. Fun new years.

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September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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Gotta find something, even onto the GEM! I kinda wanna know when was the last time Tim cited the GEM?

 

 

Don't be a jerk.   Every time the GEM shows cold... its touted on here.    And if the 12Z GEM agreed with the 12Z GFS... it would have been mentioned numerous times already.    Including by me.

 

When there is huge differences in the models for a big event... we obviously will look to the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for some agreement.   You don't have to pay attention... but I am going to watch those models and the ensembles.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The cold bias could be part of why it shows that gradient.

 

Again... I will be more confident when the ECMWF shows meaningful cold air within 10 days.

Timing has gone slightly up last couple runs on the 06 and 12, I would expect the Euro to do the same. I haven’t checked rhe latest GEFS yet but the 06 run didn’t follow the operational at all, so this may be the case of the op leading the way or still a cold outlier. No way of telling

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Don't be a jerk.   Every time the GEM shows cold... its touted on here.    And if the 12Z GEM agreed with the 12Z GFS... it would have been mentioned numerous times already.    

 

When there is huge differences in the models for a big event... we obviously will look to the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM for some agreement.   You don't have to pay attention... but I am going to watch those models and the ensembles.

Also important to note that the operational gfs recently outperformed its own ensemble and the European model and its ensemble.

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