2020 Weather Mid Atlantic/Gulf Coast.

[Wxmidatlantic]

A song for Phil...

 

 

https://youtu.be/2nOraM3zjck

[Phil]

18*F yesterday morning. Barely beats the 18.3*F from a month ago, for a new coldest low of the winter.

 

Pathetic. By far the warmest “coldest low” of any winter on record except for 1878/79. Maybe. Depends on whether you account for station relocations, UHI, etc.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Looks like maybe be a flurry at Phil's house. Inside 24 hours no hope of any major axis change. A slider indeed.

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

If the pattern holds next storm should be a cutter. I will sling back a cold one and hope for the next run. Still 30 days left.

 

Probably get sucked up by a tornado in May. A fitting ending I suppose for a weatherman...

[Wxmidatlantic]

We all dread the Northern jog. Here we have the SE jog. Heaviest snow potential now from Columbia SC to Elizabeth City NC.

 

Cancel Phil's snow flurries.

 

[Phil]

Pretty dry airmass (by super +AO standards) advected in yesterday behind that southern slider. Dewpoints in the single digits, lows dropping to ~ 20*F.

[Phil]

Looks like a dynamic storm coming up from tomorrow afternoon through Thursday. Squall line with imbedded severe thunderstorms possible tomorrow evening then gradient/CAA/pressure rise gusts to ~ 40-50mph on Thursday.

[Andie]

Gorgeous weather here. 60's sunny and calm.

 

Phil,......Check your messages please.

[Phil]

Rough night incoming out near the Shenandoah.

 

[Phil]

Wall of wind coming out of the mountains. Let’s see how much mixes down..lowest few thousand feet are stable at the moment so CAA will have to scour that out.

 

[Phil]

That was a decent storm. Winds ~ 45mph throughout, with plenty of vivid lightning strikes, then the precipitation flipped over to mostly graupel or hail during the second half of it. A very pulsy wind, like a sine wave.

[Wxmidatlantic]

NW flow with pinwheeling short waves last 5 days. 

 

Results: unfrozen lakes produced 30 inches of lake effect snow in western NY state. Winds gusted to over 60mph. Along lake shores 18 ft waves breaking producing freezing spray. Ice accretion up to 1 foot. A lake effect storm indeed. Image below.

 

There is a window of opportunity 96-132hrs for the Mid-Atlantic. I'll give it a 15% chance. Better than nothing. All depends on Southern Hudson Bay low, it's confluence, and cut off Texas low and amplification. That Sun is getting awfully bright out side my window.

 

[Phil]

There is a window of opportunity 96-132hrs for the Mid-Atlantic. I'll give it a 15% chance. Better than nothing. All depends on Southern Hudson Bay low, it's confluence, and cut off Texas low and amplification. That Sun is getting awfully bright out side my window.

 

ce4c0aba-a45e-4b32-9900-13110c067dd3_Thumb.jpg

It’s not happening with that s/w orientation and disjointed streamflow. Even if it were cold enough that screams southern slider.

 

Not ruling out something last minute later in March or even April but the pattern is extremely hostile for now.

[Wxmidatlantic]

It’s not happening with that s/w orientation and disjointed streamflow. Even if it were cold enough that screams southern slider.

 

Not ruling out something last minute later in March or even April but the pattern is extremely hostile for now.

 

Thanks.. 

[Wxmidatlantic]

That means my 85% chance of nothing will verify. We are entering an interesting time for models. The dynamics of the atmosphere will peak next 60 days. Looking at model depictions of screaming warm air advection along the front range 156 hrs is not good.

[weatherfan2012]

Thanks..

 

it really about as bad as a winter as you can get if your a cold snow fan just awfull pattern on that front this winter.

[Phil]

A bit nippy this morning at 22.6*F, following a blustery day yesterday with windchills in the teens/20s all day.

 

I’m still intrigued by the seasonal transition this year, given the annular mode is still raging in its cyclonic winter state and will have to transition out of that quickly as radiative heating commences in earnest. Question is, will the final warming in the polar stratosphere be dynamic? Or will it be a slower, radiative-catabolism of the vortex structure? Could have implications not just for subseasonal pattern progression but also, in theory, MJO/static stability in the tropics, henceforth ENSO evolution? QBO also transitioning as we speak, with easterly shear downwelling to/below 30hpa. Lots of stuff to monitor.

 

Given the above, and the climatological nature of the MJO/wavetrain seasonality under analogous boundary conditions, my projection (and my instinct) is to expect some wild gyrations in the weather pattern across the CONUS this month and especially next month. Or I could be full of it. Haha. We’ll see.

[Wxmidatlantic]

A bit nippy this morning at 22.6*F, following a blustery day yesterday with windchills in the teens/20s all day.

 

I’m still intrigued by the seasonal transition this year, given the annular mode is still raging in its cyclonic winter state and will have to transition out of that quickly as radiative heating commences in earnest. Question is, will the final warming in the polar stratosphere be dynamic? Or will it be a slower, radiative-catabolism of the vortex structure? Could have implications not just for subseasonal pattern progression but also, in theory, MJO/static stability in the tropics, henceforth ENSO evolution? QBO also transitioning as we speak, with easterly shear downwelling to/below 30hpa. Lots of stuff to monitor.

 

Given the above, and the climatological nature of the MJO/wavetrain seasonality under analogous boundary conditions, my projection (and my instinct) is to expect some wild gyrations in the weather pattern across the CONUS this month and especially next month. Or I could be full of it. Haha. We’ll see.

 

Translation:

 

Weather has been weird. That means the transition to Spring may be weird.

 

Last night tornadoes hit downtown Nashville. Video below. By biggest fear has always been a tornado at night. Storm chasers will love this spring. For the rest of us, it doesn't look good...

 

https://youtu.be/15Kw9AnpUmM

[Wxmidatlantic]

Nine dead.

 

https://youtu.be/Pa9ACnxQ_iw

[weatherfan2012]

Terrible news to here.We also had 4 tornados this past feburary which is weird as well.And in the morning

[Wxmidatlantic]

Storms to come. Let's hope they are not tornatic..

 

https://youtu.be/sMmTkKz60W8

[Phil]

DCA just gusted to 54mph. Nice dynamic front on this Super Tuesday evening.

[Phil]

Several 60mph gusts reported out west with the next squall. Some lightning in that one as well.

 

Have been touching 40mph intermittently here since a little bit after sundown.

[Phil]

Not all of this will mix down, but there’s some serious wind aloft with these squalls. Warned as severe t-storms for high winds even though they’re just showers, really.

 

[Phil]

68mph @ Hagerstown Airport.

 

Rough.

[Phil]

53mph @ Leesburg Apt. Almost no precip left with the squall but the wall of wind is continuing to roll out of the hills.

[Phil]

Some of the wind gusts associated with the decaying squalls as they blew through.

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

Nashville tornadoes, two F4, one F3. Death toll 24, dozens missing. 

[Wxmidatlantic]

The snow band. Between 3 and 6 am. I am the only one to see it....

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

12z slight amplification DC to Richmond.,

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

https://youtu.be/301gtq59jGs

[Phil]

Thick, nasty smoke here today. Apparently this is why.

 

Just gross. Had to close the windows due to the smell.

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

06Z GFS. Maybe a little atmospheric snow 126hrs.  Who cares. Anomalies beget anomalies...

[Wxmidatlantic]

This was a typical winter for Greenville SC. We loved those 2 and 3 foot storms from 09 till 16. Good times for sure.

 

Let's hope us old folks get a few more years. A song for maybe late November next year.

 

 

 

https://youtu.be/AxSarBcsKLU

[Phil]

Warm downsloper today. Mid-70s with frequent 35mph gusts blowing clouds of pollen around.

[Phil]

Looks like a wall of sleet, graupel, and cold rain moving in from the NW. Was in the mid-70’s yesterday, lol.

[Wxmidatlantic]

It was remarkable. 850mb temps dropped to -3. My windshield showed a little Sain at 12Z. Low dropped to 37.8 in the hills west of Baltimore.

[Wxmidatlantic]

Maybe next November.

 

https://youtu.be/UKJNBxDCMIs

[Wxmidatlantic]

Impressive warm surge. Dewpoints in low 60's. Temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal. Models are downplaying convection. All it takes is one cell to break the trop..

 

Scary. 

 

 

[Wxmidatlantic]

Looks like a nightime event. Wonderful.