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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


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Not sure why the other thread got locked.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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A lot of thoughts tonight. First the weather. Absolutely gorgeous day in NE Oklahoma today. Awoke to dissipating high clouds and a heavy frost up in Nowata County. Skies completely cleared by mid-morn

Some views of the cabin we’ve been staying at. About 12 miles west of Bend. Definitely getting my snow and cold fix out here.        

Max depth was around 19” 

Posted Images

I almost wonder if we got hacked.  The forum acted really weird for a bit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Hmm...weird. Anyways, hoping that both Seattle and Portland do well!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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At any rate...

 

I noticed a big flaw in the ECMWF.  Monday evening it has Bellinham at 14 degrees while Seattle is just around freezing with northerly surface pressure gradients and winds.  That will not happen.  If Bellingham is really that cold and winds are blowing down the Sound Seattle would be much colder.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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I could kick myself for not thinking more about the Bellingham to Seattle connection in these things.  I've been so focused on the big picture that I totally forgot to take it down to a more focused level when looking at the question of cold.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Currently 43F.  Going to be a +2.2F departure which will actually bring our avg down from the +6.1F it's currently at.

 

Now 16 straight days without a negative temp departure.  I feel like that's somewhat uncommon.

 

Probly several more in the pipe down this way as we will be too far south to get in on any action.  I expect us to get to 40F every day for the remainder of the cold season.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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iFred works in mysterious ways.

 

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.

 

The thread was getting big and bogged down anyway.  Just as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Currently 43F.  Going to be a +2.2F departure which will actually bring our avg down from the +6.1F it's currently at.

 

Now 16 straight days without a negative temp departure.  I feel like that's somewhat uncommon.

 

Probly several more in the pipe down this way as we will be too far south to get in on any action.  I expect us to get to 40F every day for the remainder of the cold season.

 

We have fared a lot better up here.  Sounds awful.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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iFred works in mysterious ways.

 

Could have been a botched attempt to perma-ban Tim.

Jesse should be perma-banned. Spends most of time obsessing about other members.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Take it to PMs, ladies.

I don't constantly bring up his name. I never do actually.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I could kick myself for not thinking more about the Bellingham to Seattle connection in these things.  I've been so focused on the big picture that I totally forgot to take it down to a more focused level when looking at the question of cold.

 

Yes, but Seattle doesn’t always get a share of the arctic goodies that Whatcom County gets.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

 

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

Goes to show you how things keep changing. Now shows my old place getting more snow than me. Might have to just wait until the first flakes fly!
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We have fared a lot better up here.  Sounds awful.

 

Rooting for you guys to all get a couple inches of snow up there. Hopefully the CZ and the arctic front offers some pleasant surprises.

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Rooting for you guys to all get a couple inches of snow up there. Hopefully the CZ and the arctic front offers some pleasant surprises.

 

Feeling a little better about our chances too!

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I haven't seen any mention of GFS MOS guidance so I thought I would post some locales.

(Notice the sharp temp diff between Kelso and Olympia)  (Also, Bremerton is colder than at Olympia hours earlier)

Eve.PNG

Sea.PNG

Oly.PNG

Kel.PNG

Brem.PNG

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Per 00z NAM..

 

CZ starts off the Strait around 2PM and makes its way to the King/Sno border around 5PM. It intensifies there until it starts dropping south again around 11PM, albeit in a weakened form, and fizzles in Pierce around 7AM.

 

Seems like a reasonable progression to me, if we can get the north wind going. Monitoring the Fraser outflow gradient will be one of the keys for tomorrow.

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42 here in Tacoma. 0.03" of rain today. Been breezy this afternoon and evening...gusting 35-40mph out of the SW. Funny that the nws was predicting windy conditions yesterday and it's actually a lot breezier today than yesterday.

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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00z 3km NAM through 8PM tomorrow...

 

This is a little further south than where the 18z had it at the same time.

 

Looking better.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Per 00z NAM..

CZ starts off the Strait around 2PM and makes its way to the King/Sno border around 5PM. It intensifies there until it starts dropping south again around 11PM, albeit in a weakened form, and fizzles in Pierce around 7AM.

Seems like a reasonable progression to me, if we can get the north wind going. Monitoring the Fraser outflow gradient will be one of the keys for tomorrow.

Seems like none of the models have the details figured out and it's a little less than 24 hours out.

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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Guest LaPineLurker

Temps running a good 4-6 degrees colder over here as opposed to last night. Upper levels are most likely colder. Bodes well for spots 500-1000'for Sunday night over there I would think.

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Yes, but Seattle doesn’t always get a share of the arctic goodies that Whatcom County gets.

 

That's why I clarified the surface winds will be northerly.  A direct connection to the cold pool.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Seems like none of the models have the details figured out and it's a little less than 24 hours out.

I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the point where models can nail down the exact location and strength of small scale features like the CZ.

 

Large scale synoptic storms are are a completely different animal.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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I'm not sure if we'll ever get to the point where models can nail down the exact location and strength of small scale features like the CZ.

Large scale synoptic storms are are a completely different animal.

more than just the c-zone...the Arctic outflow. Seems like there's not a real consensus on how quickly the cold air will arrive. Euro especially Seems delayed. Seems like the euro has a much different idea of how its going to play out versus the gfs or the other models...the c-zone will probably never be able to be 100% accurately modeled though you are right about that.

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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We have fared a lot better up here. Sounds awful.

Yep. We call it fallspring since we never have sub-freezing highs anymore. We also almost never have any January snow. I think Jan 2017 is the only one this decade.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Interesting Seattle Zone Forecast for tomorrow night:

 

Sunday Night

Breezy. Rain at times in the evening. Snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Snow level near sea level. Snow accumulation of 1 to 5 inches. Lows near 30. Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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more than just the c-zone...the Arctic outflow. Seems like there's not a real consensus on how quickly the cold air will arrive. Euro especially Seems delayed. Seems like the euro has a much different idea of how its going to play out versus the gfs or the other models...the c-zone will probably never be able to be 100% accurately modeled though you are right about that.

 

I can see it.  100 years in the future weather models have been perfected and are always right except the bloody c-zone!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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What is the c-zone?

 

The Puget Sound convergence zone.  SW winds come around the south end of the Olympic Mountains and NW winds come around the north end of the Olympics and meet over the Central Puget Sound.  There are dozens of variations depending on many factors.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 

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Pretty easy to see why the NAM thinks the CZ will slide south so easily. Nice northerly flow down the Sound by Sunday night. Euro doesn't even start outflow until around this time.

 

Here's the link to monitor the Fraser gradient tomorrow for anyone interested.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KBLI+CYWL

nam-nest-conus-seattle-wnd10m_stream_mph-8898800.png

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