Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Jesse]

Some really nice developments on the GFS tonight, both in the short range and the mid range. Interested to see if there is any ensemble improvement.

[Weiner Warrior]

d**n this josh character has really damaged your guys's psyche. You can have that admin guy do an IP search on me if you want. I'm in Miami right now, I'll be back in Tucson on Monday.

I noticed you never post in the Southwest forum

[SnarkyGoblin]

I feel really bad for him if he's not

 

Again, this shouldn't be too difficult for the admins to determine if it's legit.

 

I think this account is real.  The others...definitely not.  I highly doubt Josh has the brain cells to mask his IP with a VPN. 

[Randyc321]

looks further south

 

Every run

[Requiem]

d**n this josh character has really damaged your guys's psyche. You can have that admin guy do an IP search on me if you want. I'm in Miami right now, I'll be back in Tucson on Monday. 

 

Actually I do have a question: is there a reason you didn't post in the SW section of the forum first?

[AJ1013]

I noticed you never post in the Southwest forum

Nope because it's totally dead. I got referred to this forum by someone who's a regular on here. I mainly post on another forum but I really enjoy the model analysis on this board. You guys are much more fast paced and in depth than where I usually post. Was great until this "Josh" bullshit started. 

[AJ1013]

Actually I do have a question: is there a reason you didn't post in the SW section of the forum first?

Yes, the only reason I'm here is that I was shown this forum by one of your regulars. I did check out the SW forum but it's completely dead. 

[FroYoBro]

Wow, the Canadian is different and interesting. 

 

Great for Portland.

[MikeInEverett]

I noticed you never post in the Southwest forum

To be fair the Southwest forum is pretty dead compared to the PNW forum. So more people would want to post on this one either way.

[Requiem]

Wow, the Canadian is different and interesting. 

 

Great for Portland.

 

Yeah, what the heck has been happening with that model haha

[Perturbed Member]

The track on the GEM is closer to the 00z GFS now. 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Not often you see this strong a CZ signature on the GFS.

4 PM to 10 PM precip :

 

[Requiem]

Nope because it's totally dead. I got referred to this forum by someone who's a regular on here. I mainly post on another forum but I really enjoy the model analysis on this board. You guys are much more fast paced and in depth than where I usually post. Was great until this "Josh" bullshit started. 

 

Fair enough! I'm curious which regular it was-- I think I understand why some on here are paranoid. But I believe you

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z UKMET days 3 to 5.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[Omegaraptor]

I feel really bad for him if he's not

 

I can assure you he isn't. He's actually a user on another weather forum that both him and I use. He signed up because he was interested in the model analysis on this forum.

[MikeInEverett]

These CZ situations always have me so nervous about it screwing me over. Like 2/17/18 and what the WRF show tonight. Feel decent about this one though.

[AJ1013]

Fair enough! I'm curious which regular it was-- I think I understand why some on here are paranoid. But I believe you

Hahaha. It was Omegaraptor

[Requiem]

I can assure you he isn't. He's actually a user on another weather forum that both him and I use. He signed up because he was interested in the model analysis on this forum.

 

Ah, see? There we go, I had an inkling-- seemed to genuine to just be another Josh profile.

[FroYoBro]

I can assure you he isn't. He's actually a user on another weather forum that both him and I use. He signed up because he was interested in the model analysis on this forum.

 

Hey guys, I just found the 5th account of Josh!

[TacomaWaWx]

Hey guys, I just found the 5th account of Josh!

this conspiracy just got a lot deeper.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I can assure you he isn't. He's actually a user on another weather forum that both him and I use. He signed up because he was interested in the model analysis on this forum.

Yeah, AJ is legit. He posted pictures of himself down in Arizona the other day.

[Cloud]

D**n, some of you on here are beyond paranoid. 

Keep it weather related ffs. 

[Randyc321]

d**n this josh character has really damaged your guys's psyche. You can have that admin guy do an IP search on me if you want. I'm in Miami right now, I'll be back in Tucson on Monday. 

 

Phil?

[luminen]

Oof...

 

[North_County]

I think I understand why some on here are paranoid. But I believe you

Okay Josh......

 

(That's a joke, by the way. To be clear, I don't really even care if he does have a burner account.)

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The track on the GEM is closer to the 00z GFS now.

 

Yeah, great track to pull in the east winds.

[Requiem]

Okay Josh......

 

(That's a joke, by the way. To be clear, I don't really even care if he does have a burner account.)

 

Brb, gonna go drink a ton and then pour my insecurities out on a weather blog 

[Winterdog]

Not often you see this strong a CZ signature on the GFS.

4 PM to 10 PM precip :

 

qpf_006h.us_city_sea.png

Wow. 6 tenths inch converts to 6” snow at 10” per. That would be nice.

[wxmet]

Nice improvements on the GFS and CMC so far for PDX. UKMET still looks like a screw job. UKMET can sometimes be an indicator of what the ECMWF will do but we will see. 

[Requiem]

Nice improvements on the GFS and CMC so far for PDX. UKMET still looks like a screw job. UKMET can sometimes be an indicator of what the ECMWF will do but we will see. 

 

UKMET actually still looks better for PDX than the last run, so I'll take that as a tiny victory. Weird how changed the GEM was, to say the least.

[TT-SEA]

Not often you see this strong a CZ signature on the GFS.

 

4 PM to 10 PM precip :

 

qpf_006h.us_city_sea.png

I glance at the WRF and think it's going to dump snow here tomorrow evening... but the GFS and ECMWF agree on your area.

[AJ1013]

Here's a link to the post I made where I showed photos of the area I live in http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2146-part-i-january-2020-weather-discussion-for-the-pnw/?p=540798

[Timmy]

Phil?

Tucson Phil

[Perturbed Member]

Nice improvements on the GFS and CMC so far for PDX. UKMET still looks like a screw job. UKMET can sometimes be an indicator of what the ECMWF will do but we will see. 

 

Kind of interesting that the euro has a suboptimal track for PDX with the low going north and bringing in southerly flow but it still manages pretty good results. Though half of the snow comes from Monday which is pretty suspect.

 

[El_Nina]

I'm liking my chances at a dusting tomorrow night. ECMWF seems to be picking up on very light accumulations in the metro hills based off the runs earlier.

[Jesse]

Here's a link to the post I made where I showed photos of the area I live in http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2146-part-i-january-2020-weather-discussion-for-the-pnw/?p=540798

My apologies in that case. That Josh guy did indeed damage our collective psyches.

[Timmy]

Here's a link to the post I made where I showed photos of the area I live in http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2146-part-i-january-2020-weather-discussion-for-the-pnw/?p=540798

regardless, no one cares about the weather in your neck of the woods. And I mean that in the nicest way

[TigerWoodsLibido]

All the way down to...42F

 

Rainy out there.

[MossMan]

These CZ situations always have me so nervous about it screwing me over. Like 2/17/18 and what the WRF show tonight. Feel decent about this one though.

That one went to my old house instead!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice improvements on the GFS and CMC so far for PDX. UKMET still looks like a screw job. UKMET can sometimes be an indicator of what the ECMWF will do but we will see.

Still going be a couple days before we get a better idea of what track and how strong the midweek system will be. Hasn't even formed yet and will be doing so out over the Ocean.