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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


snow_wizard

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That is summer in MN!

 

You can get a really nice house on acreage in central and northern Minnesota... and that is Trump Country!

 

And the summers are not that hot up north... in fact you can have frost in June and August.    :)

 

bem2.png

 

Pretty much the kind of house we would be looking for too.  How did you know?   :lol:

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Mid-February is still a real possibility, yes.

 

It makes it kind of nice we will have the decent cold shot early next week to tide us over until the bigger stuff if it happens.  Sets up the chance for another legit cold February.  If this continues our statistical winter mid point will be changing dramatically.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The tragic loss of Kobe Bryant. Today I have found myself shaking my head over and over again. Nothing seems real and it still doesn't as I type this. When I hear players and sports reporters speaking of him in the past tense it just doesn't compute to me. I will say as a diehard lifelong Portland Trail Blazers fan the Lakers were a bitter rival for a long time and oh how I hated Kobe when he faced us, but oh how I loved his game. It was all respect. As a huge NBA fan for as long as I can remember I recognized his incredible talent, skill, shot making, and killer instinct.

 

Kobe was a legend, someone who transcended from just being known as a professional sports figure to becoming a cultural icon. He was so revered and had a profound impact throughout the world. We can certainly see that is the case. It just doesn't seem real. When it was found out that his 13 year old daughter was also on the helicopter that just compounds this tragedy exponentially further. I can't put it all into words. My thoughts and prayers go out to his wife, all involved, to their families, to all of his former teammates, coaches, and as well as first responders as this is not easy for them either. What a tremendous loss. #8 #24 Rest in Peace

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It makes it kind of nice we will have the decent cold shot early next week to tide us over until the bigger stuff if it happens. Sets up the chance for another legit cold February. If this continues our statistical winter mid point will be changing dramatically.

It swings around in cycles.

 

Fact is... it sucks to waste the true low sun angle months again. That is when snow is best.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Honestly I’m not expecting too much to happen at this point. If we get another massive snowstorm with cold temps in the mountains like we had in January I’d be happy. Simply put, in this climate you can’t expect every winter to deliver.

Yep. That is basically my frame of mind every Winter, or roughly from mid November to late February.

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December was a huge waste

 

January has been pretty bad as well for the Seattle area and southward...

 

sea.png

 

 

Going to be about +2.4 after today and will probably end up +3.0 with barely anything memorable.    We can rattle off endless warm days... but the cold days are fleeting.

 

And OLM has been even warmer.   It was +9 there today and now around +2.8 for the month.   Might end up +3.5 there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looking more likely that the Seattle area might avoid the main part of the AR event... which is also good for central Cascades.    That is much preferable to the ridiculous precip totals that the ECMWF was showing.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_22.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A lot of thoughts tonight. First the weather. Absolutely gorgeous day in NE Oklahoma today. Awoke to dissipating high clouds and a heavy frost up in Nowata County. Skies completely cleared by mid-morning and by mid-afternoon it was into the low 60s. I can feel a bit of sunburn I got taking the girls on a nature walk and then the Tulsa Zoo. Been a pretty mild winter out here too. They had some snow earlier in the week, but my daughters said it wasn't even enough to have a snow ball fight.

 

Back home my wife says we've gotten about 1" of rain since I left Friday morning. That would put us around 12.5" on the month. Above average, but nothing close to 2012.

 

This past week and the coming one will move this winter into rarefied air regionally as far as duds go. One could argue 1991-92 was worse, but for 90% of the PNW this one so far has been one for the ages. So here we are again. needing a big February to save us. Or so it feels. One could make a good argument that December 2017 was underrated and even without February 2018 that winter would not have been a historic dud. I buy that argument. Even Eugene which missed out on the Christmas snow had a top 15 cold December. But we were expecting so much more from that season so the February magic seemed like a nice consolation.

 

On the other hand last December and January were unbelievably bad. One could make a case that up to this point last winter was even worse. It definitely was at my location. Either way here we are hoping for February to deliver again. And I am thinking back to this time last year, when I was sitting here in Oklahoma looking at models which showed potential, but did not really even yet hint at anything close to what February 2019 would become. I really do not believe it will happen again, but there is that chance.

 

As for the tragedy which took the life of Kobe Bryant today. Words cannot describe. My friend texted me while I was at the Zoo with the girls. They were throwing some crackers to the geese and playing, and I was standing there trying to comprehend what I was reading. My girls asked me what was wrong, and I told them I had just gotten some strange news, they shrugged and went back to feeding the geese. We wandered around the zoo and I could see other people hearing the news, overhear people calling friends, women were crying. It was one of those moments I will always remember where I was when I heard the news. Being a teenager when he broke into the league and rabid life long sports fan he was someone I followed the entire course of his career. I was not a fan in the beginning, but became one during his second big run in the late aughts.

 

Some of my friends asked me why I cared. I care because I care about humanity, I care whenever I hear about such a tragedy. But sports are also unique. They are our escape from reality, and characters who look larger than life. They are our escape from things like this. But then when something like this occurs it shatters our delusion and reminds us time waits for no man, and we never know the day or the hour. In essence it reminds us of our own mortality.

 

I always tend to be reflective when I visit the girls, when you do not have the opportunity to see people you love as much as you would like it tends to make you take more time to think about the impact you can make during that time. Combined with that and the events of today, I decided to take a stroll along the Arkansas River while they had some stuff to do with their mom for a few hours. It was a poignantly beautiful ending to a sad day.

 

83304231_640710070071713_423191425122199

Well said my friend. Been hard to say anything today. Sports has been my lifesaver in so many ways. I love the weather but sports, esp college basketball has always kept me grounded. Even tho Kobe never played in college, pretty much every college player right now was heavily inspired by watching him.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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00z GFS is quite a bit colder with the SB Sunday trough. Would actually be a pretty decent snow event IMBY if it verified. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yeah, Superbowl Sunday is definitely not looking warm. On, Lillard with 50 tonight.

 

 

 

Doing his Trae Young impersonation. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Fun GFS run.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You act like it's never got cold and snowed here or it can't happen. February 2019 was years and years ago.

16-17 and 17-18 were decent too. Everyone’s quick to forget how good the last 3 winters have been...even this year had snow for many around the Puget sound. Just a lot more north of Seattle.
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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The last Time the gfs showed something cold 15 days out it kinda happened.

Yep lots of signals pointing towards what the GFS is showing.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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At face value the 00z would drop a ton of snow above 1000' in NW Oregon. Would be tough below that though...Still time for improvements!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not for many... you did well, but south of Seattle it was not even close to as promised. So, we shall see.

we’ve just gotta wait and see. Still plenty of time for snow to fall this winter...February hasn’t even started yet.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Mirage or not, I like it! 

 

Nice to see legit cold invading the lower 48. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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we’ve just gotta wait and see. Still plenty of time for snow to fall this winter...February hasn’t even started yet.

Been through this more times than I can count and will not predict the outcome, but am still not seeing enough to get excited about, AND honestly I am bitter and butt hurt about the last event being a total bust here. So much promise too! The near term  looks borderline at best, and the good stuff is not even in the believable range. The near stuff is just cold rain here at best.... I am beyond skeptical!! 

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