January 2020 B.C. & Northern WA Cold Wave...Analogs Called It

[snow_wizard]

For those who poo poo analogs just take a look at the current cold wave taking place in British Columbia and Northern WA.  The entire time the models have had this in their cross hairs the CPC analogs were consistently touting Jan 1952, Jan / Feb 1975, Jan 2002, Jan 2005, and other months that featured north centric cold.  Even with all of the models showing great things from Eugene to Bellingham those analogs continued to be front and center.  Now that the event is here they have been born out.  The event has been great for places north of Seattle, terrible for places south of Olympia, and so so (aka table scraps for Seattle to Olympia).

 

In spite of having some respect for analogs I wish I had paid more attention.  It was so easy to get wrapped up in the fabulous runs where everyone ended up getting plastered.

[Deweydog]

Always easier on the other side...

 

One of the reasons forecasting the weather is HARD.

[TT-SEA]

Great post, Jim.    Its good to do a post-analysis while this is still fresh in our minds.   I am sure there were numerous clues last week that we all missed because the models were spitting out incredible numbers.   Even skeptical Matt bought in for a couple hours at one point.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good post Snow Wiz.