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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


Madtown

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00z Euro...certainly took a step towards the UKIE in terms of placement but still enough NW to keep N IL in the game.  The 00z EPS shifted SE and now puts N IN and most of S MI in the game but it also trended weaker and less juiced.  Prob more realistic.  Who would have thought there would be this many sudden shifts???  Sarc....nonetheless, I'd imagine LOT will shift the WSW's south in the next AFD...more than likely they are writing it up as we speak.

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Wowza, 06z NAM just took a big step towards the Euro...MI and IN peeps will be waking up to some nice surprises this morning while sippin' on their coffee or tea!

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

 

06z NAM...still snowing hard...quite the defo band setting up shop across the Lower Lakes region...could this be the Big Dog we have been waiting for???

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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The first WSW to cover the entire viewing area of Chicago this season....better late then never...

 

 

 

Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
327 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

ILZ013-014-019>022-241730-
/O.EXB.KLOT.WS.A.0002.200225T1500Z-200227T0000Z/
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-
Including the cities of Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove,
Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison, Chicago, Humboldt Park,
Hyde Park, Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Logan Square, Navy Pier,
Ottawa, Streator, Peru, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego,
Boulder Hill, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka,
Joliet, and Bolingbrook
327 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall with totals in excess of 6 inches
possible.

* WHERE...Cook, DuPage, Will, Kendall, Grundy and La Salle
Counties.

* WHEN...Late Tuesday morning through late Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact particularly the Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$
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Snooze-fest ongoing in Texas. Can't complain really.

 

50-65*. Sunny, gorgeous days. Rain maybe next Mon. Or Tues.

 

I'm storing up the pleasure of this week for July and August "heat exhaustion" days.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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06z GFS...due to the SE trend, this allows more cold air to wrap into the system, thus producing an increased potential to possible Lehs.  I'm wondering if we see this feature in future runs.

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Been waiting to see whether sampling of the N piece shifted everything north on 0z runs or went our way? As posted above by Brian (and self 2 days ago), with even short term nowcasts busting this season I'm keeping my expectations in check for now. Nonetheless I hope things go well for you amigo. Good luck and happy tracking!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NWS headline this morning..a rarity for sure

 

"Two Storms to Merge Over the Ohio Valley; Heavy Snow Forecast Midwest into Great Lakes"

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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LOL at the HRRR.  The 06z run was pretty robust and had good snow well back into Iowa... even for Cedar Rapids.  The 12z totally crapped the bed, moving all snow out of Iowa.

 

The NWS must hate storms like this, as we do.  While we are all just chatting on a forum, the NWS has to put out maps and a forecast for public viewing.  What do you do when you are 24 hours away from a storm and models are still showing anything from several inches to nothing in some areas (like southeast Iowa)?

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 06z Euro went even farther southeast and now barely has any snow for Burlington and the Quad Cities.  The 12z NAM is coming in southeast as well, so it appears that's the way to go.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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RPM model still looks good for all of N IL with a general 4-8", but counties in NE IL are showing some Lehs and some spots may reach 8-11", including Cook/Lake/DuPage.  ORD tops out at 10.9" this run.  It's certainly showing the influence of the lake with a farther SE track and colder air present.  Some local #'s: RFD 4.9", Lansing 8.4", Woodstock 7.7", Peru 5.8"

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12z NAM and 3K NAM with huge shifts southeast again compared to 00z and 06z.  At this rate, we will be lucky to get a single flake.  This was the type of storm where everything had to come together just right, with the timing and phasing of the 2 pieces of energy.  So not a shock that once again they were way wrong.  This is gotta be at least the 3rd time this year that models showed upwards of a foot of snow for Iowa City/CR within 72 hours of the event only for it to shift dramatically or decrease significantly.  Oh well.  Can't control it.  But this officially puts me in spring mode.  Can't wait for a sustained warm up.  The weekend was really nice 

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