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March 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Yet Texas is dealing with extra rain. I received about 1.5" rain the past 36 hrs.

It's clear at sunrise and several days of sun ahead before another rain.

 

We'll be in the 50's and 60's.

 

Things are a little upside down but we need the rain.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Beautiful morning in SEMI w temps in the low 30s. A few snowshowers by tomorrow morning, but nothing of significance. Weekend looks splendid. Near 60F by Sunday. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Canadian has been advertising something around the lakes the 11/12th for a few runs now as is 00z ICON. Worth monitoring.

Not all models acquiesce to this system. Also, by then, it will be close to mid March. Any snow that falls will be gone the next couple of days, if not sooner. Welcome Spring. Winter is done! I averaged AN snowfall this Winter season, so I am good w that considering how mild it was in J n F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Grand Rapids is very cloudy in the late fall and into the winter season and this year was even cloudier then average. At GRR the report for February is 37% of possible sunshine. With 16 cloudy days. 8 partly cloudy days and 5 clear days. For the past meteorological winter at GRR 22% of possible sunshine 61 cloudy days 23 partly cloudy and 7 clear. Note that 5 of the clear days were in the last half of February.

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Not all models acquiesce to this system. Also, by then, it will be close to mid March. Any snow that falls will be gone the next couple of days, if not sooner. Welcome Spring. Winter is done! I averaged AN snowfall this Winter season, so I am good w that considering how mild it was in J n F.

While the snow might not last for many days there have been some very big spring snow storms in east and south east Michigan in mid March and into April. Here is a list of some of them. Detroit April 6, 1886 24.5" White Lake April 24, 2005 14.5" April 5, 2009 7.8" Flint April 3, 1975 17.3" March 17, 1973 13.7" March 23, 1947 10.8" March 23, 1983 9.6" March 21 1940 9.5" Saginaw March 17 1973 22.5" April 3 1975 14.4" March 23 1968 11.0" April 6 1952 10.9" So yes there have been some big time snow storms in late March and into April.

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While the snow might not last for many days there have been some very big spring snow storms in east and south east Michigan in mid March and into April. Here is a list of some of them. Detroit April 6, 1886 24.5" White Lake April 24, 2005 14.5" April 5, 2009 7.8" Flint April 3, 1975 17.3" March 17, 1973 13.7" March 23, 1947 10.8" March 23, 1983 9.6" March 21 1940 9.5" Saginaw March 17 1973 22.5" April 3 1975 14.4" March 23 1968 11.0" April 6 1952 10.9" So yes there have been some big time snow storms in late March and into April.

Nobody said that there have not been big snowstorms in "March" or "April". Examples are not needed to be pointed out. Everyone knows past snowstorms late in the season have occurred. My point is that by mid March, any snows you do get are useless.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nobody said that there have not been big snowstorms in "March" or "April". Examples are not needed to be pointed out. Everyone knows past snowstorms late in the season have occurred. My point is that by mid March, any snows you do get are useless.

Hehe, not if it breaks a record!

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I"m hearing there is sleet mixed in with rain in North Liberty with temps in the low 40s. Weird.

Steep lapse rates :). Though 0-3km LR is skewed due to EML right at 3km.

9FE04A89-85B2-4391-92B5-2AA99EDEFC62.png

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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35 here with a light rain falling. This is the weekend of the time change. Not being a morning person and working outside during the summer time I like the so called DST the better of the two. Now why is it still called daylight time and standard time? It used to be we did not change the time until the last week of April and now it is done in the 1st week of March. So that said why not have daylight time as the standard time and what is now standard time as the new "Winter Time" that would make more sense.

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Another gorgeous day in paradise. We'll see 65* and sunny today.

Currently clear, and 46*. Just a beautiful spring morning.

 

However,....Daylight Savings Time hits Sunday. For many of us that's lousy news. Me included.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Overall, a wet and warm start to Spring across the eastern Heartland and throughout the OHV...quite the battle zone shaping up over the Plains/Upper MW causing concern for late season snows up north.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm ready for thunderstorms!

 

This x 100.

 

Even the 0.50-0.75" of general rain Monday will be a nice start.  We haven't had a rain event heavier than 0.20" since late December.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Overall, a wet and warm start to Spring across the eastern Heartland and throughout the OHV...quite the battle zone shaping up over the Plains/Upper MW causing concern for late season snows up north.

Don’t know the exact climo stats, but just speaking from experience I think it would be more unusual for parts of MN/WI not to have snow in Mach into April. Either way, hoping we don’t have to deal with it around these parts and can get a fast transition to spring and summmer. We are owed after the last several years

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Don’t know the exact climo stats, but just speaking from experience I think it would be more unusual for parts of MN/WI not to have snow in Mach into April. Either way, hoping we don’t have to deal with it around these parts and can get a fast transition to spring and summmer. We are owed after the last several years

March is already off to a much warmer start compared to the last couple March opens. You guys just need it to continue but I suspect a lot of back and forth due to storm enduced warmth followed by CF’s.

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Don’t know the exact climo stats, but just speaking from experience I think it would be more unusual for parts of MN/WI not to have snow in Mach into April. Either way, hoping we don’t have to deal with it around these parts and can get a fast transition to spring and summmer. We are owed after the last several years

March is typically our second snowiest month here in MSP, on average. Anyone up this way that thinks winter is completely done is in denial. Hell, we got 30” two April’s ago.

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March is typically our second snowiest month here in MSP, on average. Anyone up this way that thinks winter is completely done is in denial. Hell, we got 30” two April’s ago.

No winter isn't over, the EC has a snowy look, esp for Nebraska and Iowa.  Lezak is expecting 1 or 2 more accumulating snows in KC, we shall see.

1584511200-E7KoPegxo2c.png

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The volatility of March can produce some wild weather and temp swings, none moreso, than those who live in the Great Plains. Spring "Shoulder" season is fully underway and parts of our Sub are going to get "teased" by some Spring time warmth this weekend.  Does it last?  Quite an active pattern is setting up from the desert SW into the central CONUS this week into the following weekend.  Is there a late season winter storm on the horizon??? I haven't had much time to analyze the pattern and left my notebook back home, but I will say, there is growing model consensus that the EPO is to tank later this week which will allow the pattern to amplify and seed some late season arctic air into the Upper MW/Plains states where the potential for Spring Snows lies ahead.

 

Last nights 00z EPS turned significantly colder for the Plains and the GEFS/GEPS are not far behind on that idea.  

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

1.png

2.png

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The volatility of March can produce some wild weather and temp swings, none moreso, than those who live in the Great Plains. Spring "Shoulder" season is fully underway and parts of our Sub are going to get "teased" by some Spring time warmth this weekend.  Does it last?  Quite an active pattern is setting up from the desert SW into the central CONUS this week into the following weekend.  Is there a late season winter storm on the horizon??? I haven't had much time to analyze the pattern and left my notebook back home, but I will say, there is growing model consensus that the EPO is to tank later this week which will allow the pattern to amplify and seed some late season arctic air into the Upper MW/Plains states where the potential for Spring Snows lies ahead.

 

Last nights 00z EPS turned significantly colder for the Plains and the GEFS/GEPS are not far behind on that idea.  

 

00z GEFS...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

The 16th-18th needs to be watched closely, if there is going to be a big dog in my area that would be the most likely time.

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The 16th-18th needs to be watched closely, if there is going to be a big dog in my area that would be the most likely time.

Should be a bumpy ride mid & late month for your area and a lot of the central CONUS. The weather out here in AZ will turn cooler later next week and the following. I’ve been enjoying the amazing weather over the past few days. Yesterday, we topped out at 84F and today it will be in the low 80’s before we “cool” down around 70F with rain chances Tue- Thu. I’m expecting a BN pattern for the reminder of this month over here. Average temps will be in the upper 70’s later next week and approaching 80F by months end so BN temps won’t be too terrible. We need the rain so that will be a bonus.

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It was a rather cold night last night. While the official low looks to be 18° here at my house the low as just 15°.  I think it is now safe to say the lowest low for Grand Rapids for the winter of 2019/20 will be a rather mild +4° That is in a 3 way tie for the 5th warmest minimum for a winter season. Also Grand Rapids is still at just 48.5" of snow for the season here is a list of some past lowest snow fall seasons at Grand Rapids 35.9" in 1982/83. 47.6" in 1986/87. 48.5" in 1979/80. In more recent times the winter of 2011/12 just 51.2" fell. So the next few weeks will tell just where this winter well set in for the lowest snow fall totals at Grand Rapids.

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This graphic pretty much sums up the difference compared to this years open vs March '19....my goodness, that was a frigid open last year and I think we did not have much snow OTG iirc.

 

Edit: Yup, we had bare ground back then...

 

nsm_depth_2019030405_Northern_Great_Lake

1.jpg

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Another gorgeous spring day. Sunny and near 70. Light breeze.

 

Just perfection.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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