March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty stunning sunset and moonrise this evening. We drove up Rocky Point road out of Scappoose to watch it. You might know where that is Timmy.

The moon shining thru a few stripes of high cloud just above the horizon looked pretty nice as I was driving home.

[Deweydog]

Someone died in Canada today. First death from the virus in Canada.

 

Finally was able to buy some toilet paper today. Superstore had a few packs left. This thing must cause some pretty viscous a*s explosions.

We were just at Safeways this evening and their TP section was decimated. I don’t get it...

[TT-SEA]

Someone died in Canada today. First death from the virus in Canada.

 

Finally was able to buy some toilet paper today. Superstore had a few packs left. This thing must cause some pretty viscous a*s explosions.

Toilet paper seems to come and go here... shelves are stocked and then empty and then stocked again. At least the supply chain is still active!

[ShawniganLake]

We were just at Safeways this evening and their TP section was decimated. I don’t get it...

I’d resort to leaves but those are tough to come by at this point too.

[TT-SEA]

We were just at Safeways this evening and their TP section was decimated. I don’t get it...

 

 

[Phil]

And yet, AK blocking can occur with +AO. See coming pattern.

The AO would be transitioning negative through the AK wavebreak, though. Both the EPO and AO are expressions of the polar vortex and associated planetary wave breaking regimes.

 

You’re trying to separate them and that’s just a flat out incorrect framing of the issue. Okay?

[Deweydog]

The nitrile gloves are coming off!

[Esquimalt]

Gfs is on-board for a snowstorm here

[Phil]

Of course any of these teleconnection indices can diverge under particular circumstances, especially when patterns don’t fit their empirical orthogonal functions cleanly.

 

That doesn’t mean particular indices cannot be subsumed within others, or that two or more indices are not related in one way or another.

 

Two wildly different patterns can produce the exact same PNA/NAO/EPO/etc values. Understand what those values represent before deriving conclusions from them, because the same number can hold a variety of different meanings.

[Requiem]

Boo, my one-run snowstorm is gone. Hopefully the easterly flow stays.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like a fun weekend. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has seemingly won this battle... much more consistent.

 

And as I mentioned earlier today to Andrew... it seems like a westward trend has become more common in the models as events approach rather than the dreaded eastward trend that we all joke about.

[Esquimalt]

This run is colder than 18Z

[Requiem]

This run is colder than 18Z

 

For your area perhaps-- much warmer here.

[Phil]

Anyone who appreciates stats and math should care about this find. I am assuming Jared will appreciate it since he is very logical and this has always been a mystery to us. I am going to figure out the 4 problem stations now.

Jared = logical? On what planet?

 

Jared = linear is a better fit.

[GHweatherChris]

Of course any of these teleconnection indices can diverge under particular circumstances, especially when patterns don’t fit their empirical orthogonal functions cleanly.

 

That doesn’t mean particular indices cannot be subsumed within others, or that two or more indices are not related in one way or another.

 

Two wildly different patterns can produce the exact same PNA/NAO/EPO/etc values. Understand what those values represent before deriving conclusions from them, because the same number can hold a variety of different meanings.

Can you at least reply to what you are adding to? Sometimes it seems like your are just rambling on and on to noone, just an observation.

[FroYoBro]

For your area perhaps-- much warmer here.

 

The 18z was unrealistic.

 

Still pretty d**n cold this run. 

[jakeinthevalley]

Next time you say, "COVID-19," I dare you to think of the song "Come on Eileen."

 

You're welcome.

[Requiem]

The 18z was unrealistic.

 

Still pretty d**n cold this run. 

 

Still, this run has drastically weaker offshore flow and less cold overall-- lot worse than the 12z or the 18z. Hopefully it doesn't keep heading west, but the trend this year has been pretty clear.

[GHweatherChris]

00z GFS looks better for me, so that's good!!

[Perturbed Member]

For your area perhaps-- much warmer here.

 

The -16c 850mb numbers the 18z FV3 spewed out was nonsense and I doubt any future runs will top those. -7c to -9c 850s and eventually some decent east winds seem possible. Accumulating snow above a 1000 ft, snow in the air below at some point. Anything much better than that is gonna take some real nice luck with things coming together just right IMO. 

[Phil]

Can you at least reply to what you are adding to? Sometimes it seems like your are just rambling on and on to noone, just an observation.

Covid-19 messing with your grammar skillz?

[GHweatherChris]

Next time you say, "COVID-19," I dare you to think of the song "Come on Eileen."

 

You're welcome.

For some reason I spell the COVID part out in my head when I see it.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS has come around to the ULL dropping south off the coast solution rather than an open trough moving through.    

This is much less likely to produce a c-zone snow bonanza for the east side of the Puget Sound region.

 

Its actually the opposite and favors places like Vancouver Island and the Hood Canal.

[GHweatherChris]

Covid-19 messing with your grammar skillz?

You as well?

[TT-SEA]

Next time you say, "COVID-19," I dare you to think of the song "Come on Eileen."

 

You're welcome.

 

 

[Requiem]

The -16c 850mb numbers the 18z FV3 spewed out was nonsense and I doubt any future runs will top those. -7c to -9c 850s and eventually some decent east winds seem possible. Accumulating snow above a 1000 ft, snow in the air below at some point. Anything much better than that is gonna take some real nice luck with things coming together just right IMO. 

 

Really as long as future runs stop gutting the easterly gradient (they already have started to do so), I'm fine with anything. If this year could give me one thing, some cold east winds would be very nice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The GFS has come around to the ULL dropping south off the coast solution rather than an open trough moving through.

This is much less likely to produce a c-zone snow bonanza for the east side of the Puget Sound region.

 

Its actually the opposite and favors places like Vancouver Island and the Hood Canal.

Yes you are correct. Hard to imagine a snow event in march like is shown but we're getting close now. At face value it would be a decent snow event over here.

[Deweydog]

Next time you say, "COVID-19," I dare you to think of the song "Come on Eileen."

 

You're welcome.

Too ra loo ra too ra loo rye aye gotta get myself a surgical mask.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Yes you are correct. Hard to imagine a snow event in march like is shown but we're getting close now. At face value it would be a decent snow event over here.

So it will be unusual.

[Requiem]

Anyways, I'll just hope for more positive future runs for PDX. Rooting for no further decimation of the easterlies like this run provided.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Beautiful night here in Tacoma.

Looks very pretty.

[Deweydog]

If you can’t count on virus-free, blistering cold east winds in mid March...

[Jesse]

Really nice night out.

[GHweatherChris]

Really nice night out.

Last night and tonight are the clearest the stars have looked this cold like season here.

[Jesse]

Last night and tonight are the clearest the stars have looked this cold like season here.

Yeah the air is very clear and crisp and the moon is bright. Already down to 42 here. 55/29 spread today.

[Deweydog]

Night shift!!!

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah the air is very clear and crisp and the moon is bright. Already down to 42 here. 55/29 spread today.

Already crispying up here.

[Weiner Warrior]

I heard if it snows it will attach the COVID virus as it falls and everyone that goes out to play in it will get sick. Still hoping for a few inches.

[GHweatherChris]

I heard if it snows it will attach the COVID virus as it falls and everyone that goes out to play in it will get sick. Still hoping for a few inches.

Bring it!