Jump to content

March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Recommended Posts

All gatherings of more than 250 people banned in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties.

 

That means no concerts, sporting events, or large church gatherings.

 

This thing is no joke.

  • Like 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

it is an argument if it is compared to something else with consequences but different in people’s responses and resources allocated to it. Just like climate change or human affect on the earth. We try to put a number to those things (ie: chances of occurrence and amount of human loss) to determine how much effort/resources should be applied to stopping its affects.

 

Correct. We have a pretty good grasp on cancer cases and mortality rates at this point. Hence why I don't really see the argument there.

 

With COVID-19 we clearly have very limited knowledge on just how bad it could get or not get for that matter. It's obviously the uncertainty that is concerning for so many people especially if you have family members that have underlying health conditions that would normally not be an issue before COVID-19.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All gatherings of more than 250 people banned in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties.

 

That means no concerts, sporting events, or large church gatherings.

 

This thing is no joke.

 

 

The Issaquah Costco probably has 1,000 people in it at any given time on a weekend.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who cares about thousands of people dying, we've got weather to talk about!!

Yeah sure it’s a big issue but lots of people on here don’t want to hear more about it on here. Same with lots of the political stuff it’s all really negative and most importantly not weather related...that’s why there’s a banter thread. Threads literally clogged with coronavirus posts.
  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Josephine nursing home in Stanwood now has 3 confirmed cases. Everyone is healthy so far at the nearby senior community that I used to work at but it sounds like things are quite intense with the new restrictions.

 

Anyway it’s cloudy and 45 degrees currently.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Issaquah Costco probably has 1,000 people in it at any given time on a weekend.

Retail locations are exempt so far.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah sure it’s a big issue but lots of people on here don’t want to hear more about it on here. Same with lots of the political stuff it’s all really negative and most importantly not weather related...that’s why there’s a banter thread. Threads literally clogged with coronavirus posts.

 

Onto the never ending flooding/drought debate then!!

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still just 0.91" for March. Over a 6 inch rainfall deficit since February 1st.

0.73” here so far...doesn’t look like a ton is coming any time soon either.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GFS shows much less snow for the Puget Sound region... this is through Saturday morning and the precip is done by then up here.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_16.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Correct. We have a pretty good grasp on cancer cases and mortality rates at this point. Hence why I don't really see the argument there.

 

With COVID-19 we clearly have very limited knowledge on just how bad it could get or not get for that matter. It's obviously the uncertainty that is concerning for so many people especially if you have family members that have underlying health conditions that would normally not be an issue before COVID-19.

I’m quite scared about my 67yr old father with no immune system. He is staying put at his house and none of us will be visiting him for a while just in case we are carriers. He’s got to become a hermit otherwise he is at extreme risk of dying. This is crazy.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GFS shows much less snow for the Puget Sound region... this is through Saturday morning and the precip is done by then up here.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_16.png

Everett might still get some!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m quite scared about my 67yr old father with no immune system. He is staying put at his house and none of us will be visiting him for a while just in case we are carriers. He’s got to become a hermit otherwise he is at extreme risk of dying. This is crazy.

 

 

I imagine that is a huge burden even under normal circumstances.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some heavy wet snow in portions of NW Oregon according to this run. This might be a situations where foothills and hilly areas do pretty well.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some heavy wet snow in portions of NW Oregon according to this run. This might be a situations where foothills and hilly areas do pretty well.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

 

 

It should be the opposite of the areas that do well with onshore flow.    Like cold air damming spots on the east side of the coast range.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I imagine that is a huge burden even under normal circumstances.

He spends about a week at a time in the hospital about 4 times a year. Just a common cold turns into way more for him and he has to be hospitalized. This is not good.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It should be the opposite of the areas that do well with onshore flow.    Like cold air damming spots on the east side of the coast range.

 

My area does excellent during offshore flow events, fingers crossed for something.

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m quite scared about my 67yr old father with no immune system. He is staying put at his house and none of us will be visiting him for a while just in case we are carriers. He’s got to become a hermit otherwise he is at extreme risk of dying. This is crazy.

 

 

I pulled the plug our trip to Georgia today for the same thing,  We were supposed to go in mid-April for my niece's wedding, but my mom is 84 and not in the best of health.  We would have stayed with her for 4 days, but I just don't want to risk it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good news is that new cases per day in China has dropped dramatically... only 14 new cases today.     The virus has run its course there it appears.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good news is that new cases per day in China has dropped dramatically... only 14 new cases today. The virus has run its course there it appears.

If you believe their numbers, that is.

 

Always reason to be skeptical when it comes to China.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good news is that new cases per day in China has dropped dramatically... only 14 new cases today. The virus has run its course there it appears.

I think the mandatory quarantine and the shutting of everything down did the trick there.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good news is that new cases per day in China has dropped dramatically... only 14 new cases today. The virus has run its course there it appears.

It will likely come back as soon as they lift their fairly extreme mandatory quarantine though.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coast range could do quite well with this. Looks promising for Forest Grove, Banks, Vernonia and similar locations too. Obviously way overdone for actual PDX metro on this map but snow in the air looking very doable. 

 

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

 

 

Looks like there could be decent moisture availability but GFS has been fluctuating a good bit on that. Last 3 runs

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coast range could do quite well with this. Looks promising for Forest Grove, Banks, Vernonia and similar locations too. Obviously way overdone for actual PDX metro on this map but snow in the air looking very doable. 

 

sn10_024h.us_nw.png

 

 

Looks like there could be decent moisture availability but GFS has been fluctuating a good bit on that. Last 3 runs

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

qpf_024h.us_nw.png

 

Seems likely that a band of decent precipitation will set up somewhere as those easterlies come in. 

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It will likely come back as soon as they lift their fairly extreme mandatory quarantine though.

 

Maybe not... if you wait long enough then it dies off.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Down to 41F.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe not... if you wait long enough then it dies off.

That’s debatable..is it seasonal like influenza and most other coronaviruses? In that case it will probably re-propagate and/or mutate next winter. Vaccination might be the turning point, whenever that happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems likely that a band of decent precipitation will set up somewhere as those easterlies come in. 

 

Yeah I'm still just not buying that it will actually get as cold as the GFS shows. 

 

GFS vs GEM

gfs_T850_nwus_17.png

 

gem_T850_nwus_17.png

 

Big difference in how cold the Columbia basin gets and I think the GFS is being too aggressive with that backdoor cold. If we actually had that much cold in the gorge, yeah I think snow to the lowest elevations would be a decent bet but I think we're dealing with the usual FV3 cold bias here. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I'm still just not buying that it will actually get as cold as the GFS shows. 

 

GFS vs GEM

gfs_T850_nwus_17.png

 

gem_T850_nwus_17.png

 

Big difference in how cold the Columbia basin gets and I think the GFS is being too aggressive with that backdoor cold. If we actually had that much cold in the gorge, yeah I think snow to the lowest elevations would be a decent bet but I think we're dealing with the usual FV3 cold bias here. 

 

True. GEM also has a weird meandering low as well-- I think the EURO will be the most accurate in terms of low track and surface details.

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That’s debatable..is it seasonal like influenza and most other coronaviruses? In that case it will probably re-propagate and/or mutate next winter. Vaccination might be the turning point, whenever that happens.

Sure.

 

But China may have stemmed the tide for this season with their quarantines. And most of the country was not quarantined so I think it's good news that new cases have dropped to almost nothing.

 

Assuming the reports are accurate.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I'm still just not buying that it will actually get as cold as the GFS shows. 

 

GFS vs GEM

gfs_T850_nwus_17.png

 

gem_T850_nwus_17.png

 

Big difference in how cold the Columbia basin gets and I think the GFS is being too aggressive with that backdoor cold. If we actually had that much cold in the gorge, yeah I think snow to the lowest elevations would be a decent bet but I think we're dealing with the usual FV3 cold bias here. 

Yeah I'd bet at least $4 the GFS as it often does is being too aggressive with the cold air and pressure rises in Eastern Washington. We'll see what King Euro shows us later tonight. Who can stay up until midnight though?

 

00z ECMWF in 45 minutes

6z GFS in 4 hour 28 minutes

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...