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March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW


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I did see it and posted some pics.

 

Q13 was on Mt Si yesterday and they said people doing OK with distancing... David Rose posted it on his FB page.

 

I am not sure a mountain top is a breeding ground... Safeway is probably much worse and there is nothing we can do about that.   But that is apparently a VERY controversial opinion in this current situation.    ;)

 

I guess it depends on how long the virus can stay transmissible on rock.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I guess it depends on how long the virus can stay transmissible on rock.

 

I guess.   Probably not a serious concern in the bright sun and open air.    Transmission on objects has to be way more of a concern with all of the items on the shelves in grocery stores and we are all going there.

 

Why are people not freaking out on social media over the hundreds of planes in the air right now between US cities?    That seems like true petri dish conditions.   The top of Rattlesnake Ledge should not be such a concern.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What a nice day. 62/32 here with morning frost and afternoon sunshine giving way to overcast. Breezy NW wind out there now and cooling off, already down to 50.

 

For the record, I didn’t start the “people who are rooting for weather I don’t like are rooting for the virus to spread”, schtick. IMO it is kind of an idiotic point no matter which side you look at it from. It’s just kind of ironic seeing Jim and others getting scolded when the long stretch of mild and sunny days we just endured pretty much happened at the worst possible time to keep people inside throughout the region, basically starting right as the pandemic hit.

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What a nice day. 62/32 here with morning frost and afternoon sunshine giving way to overcast. Breezy NW wind out there now and cooling off, already down to 50.

 

For the record, I didn’t start the “people who are rooting for weather I don’t like are rooting for the virus to spread”, schtick. IMO it is kind of an idiotic point no matter which side you look at it from. It’s just kind of ironic seeing Jim and others getting scolded when the long stretch of mild and sunny days we just endured pretty much happened at the worst possible time to keep people inside throughout the region, basically starting right as the pandemic hit.

 

 

What if it turns out that being inside all the time is the worst thing you can do... and UV rays and fresh air are very good at stopping the spread?     You don't know it was the worst possible time.    Maybe it was a saving grace at the right time.

 

Side note... you exclaim it was a nice day and then say you had to "endure" it in the same post.     :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This seems to be a theme in the models for next weekend lately.   A pattern of alternating ridges and troughs would be pretty nice.   Nothing gets the vegetation going better than rain followed by sun and repeat.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_27.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The native maples are close to leafing out. The landscape will look much different in a couple weeks.

 

Wow... that is ahead of here and that never happens.   I was looking at our big leaf maple today and it has a ways to go yet.   

 

But some regular rain and getting rid of the frosty nights should make for a huge change in the scenery over the next couple weeks.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow... that is ahead of here and that never happens. I was looking at our big leaf maple today and it has a ways to go yet.

 

But some regular rain and getting rid of the frosty nights should make for a huge change in the scenery over the next couple weeks.

It was the trees that had southern exposure that I noticed on Friday. Leaf buds were quite large and green. Our pink magnolia started to bloom today.
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It was the trees that had southern exposure that I noticed on Friday. Leaf buds were quite large and green. Our pink magnolia started to bloom today.

And our magnolia has not started yet... very close though. Your area is actually ahead of my area for once. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What if it turns out that being inside all the time is the worst thing you can do... and UV rays and fresh air are very good at stopping the spread? You don't know it was the worst possible time. Maybe it was a saving grace at the right time.

 

Side note... you exclaim it was a nice day and then say you had to "endure" it in the same post. :rolleyes:

Your last sentence is false, Jesse did nt say that
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Odds always favor another ridge but I will enjoy a fun model run for now.

 

I think you might be OK... the EPS did not really agree on a big ridge and the 06Z was different than the 00Z run.

 

Although I honestly think you are incorrect in your assumption that the weather this past week was a negative for WA and OR.  It very likely was a significant benefit at the exact right time for people to be outside in the sun and fresh air so often... and most people are hyper-aware of distancing anyways.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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06z ensembles are cooler and show a lot of promise for troughing in coming weeks. A very raw 37 degree morning with rain falling. I agree with Tim that the past week had incredible weather. I enjoyed the weekend and got a ton of work done in the yard. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Salem still running -2.1 for March. They have also had 12 freezes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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06z ensembles are cooler and show a lot of promise for troughing in coming weeks. A very raw 37 degree morning with rain falling. I agree with Tim that the past week had incredible weather. I enjoyed the weekend and got a ton of work done in the yard.

 

It was a very pretty week. We got three hikes in.

 

St. Helens yesterday.

 

DF83AA6F-534E-417D-A10F-1512D1746459.jpeg

 

We actually drove all the way to Coldwater Lake and it was WAY too packed there. Didn’t even get out of the car, just turned around and left the parking lot when we saw what a zoo it was. And probably with lots of people from Seattle to boot. Luckily we were able to find some places off the beaten path instead.

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Got our first rainfall in 10 days here this morning...0.06” this morning and 1.15” for March. This was the 2nd longest March dry streak I’ve recorded...behind last years 11 day dry streak in mid March.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Got our first rainfall in 10 days here this morning...0.06” this morning and 1.15” for March. This was the 2nd longest March dry streak I’ve recorded...behind last years 11 day dry streak in mid March.

 

 

The Cedar Lake station near me is running about 6 inches below normal for March... after falling .02 short of the wettest January/February ever.

 

A drier than normal March was basically inevitable up here... and it happened despite the protests from certain Portland area members.    

 

A wet April seems more than likely than usual now as well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It was a very pretty week. We got three hikes in.

 

St. Helens yesterday.

 

attachicon.gifDF83AA6F-534E-417D-A10F-1512D1746459.jpeg

 

We actually drove all the way to Coldwater Lake and it was WAY too packed there. Didn’t even get out of the car, just turned around and left the parking lot when we saw what a zoo it was. And probably with lots of people from Seattle to boot. Luckily we were able to find some places off the beaten path instead.

 

It was a very pretty week. We got three hikes in.

 

St. Helens yesterday.

 

attachicon.gifDF83AA6F-534E-417D-A10F-1512D1746459.jpeg

 

We actually drove all the way to Coldwater Lake and it was WAY too packed there. Didn’t even get out of the car, just turned around and left the parking lot when we saw what a zoo it was. And probably with lots of people from Seattle to boot. Luckily we were able to find some places off the beaten path instead.

 

I am pretty lucky living where I live. Plenty to do outdoors to keep busy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The Cedar Lake station near me is running about 6 inches below normal for March... after falling .02 short of the wettest January/February ever.

 

A drier than normal March was basically inevitable up here... and it happened despite the protests from certain Portland area members.    

 

A wet April seems more than likely than usual now as well.

 

we’ve had just 1.97” in the last 7 weeks here...the flip to wetter than normal will be arriving soon.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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we’ve had just 1.97” in the last 7 weeks here...the flip to wetter than normal will be arriving soon.

 

Or it could be a flip to just normal. Or a flip to a little wetter overall but still drier than normal. Or a flip to wetter in some areas but still dry for others.

 

There seems to be kind of a myth perpetuated here that the region moves through several week cycles of much wetter than normal to much drier than normal then back again, and it is of course all centered around how much rain western Washington gets compared to average. Although it would make things really simple to predict, weather doesn't actually work that way.

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This seems to be a theme in the models for next weekend lately. A pattern of alternating ridges and troughs would be pretty nice. Nothing gets the vegetation going better than rain followed by sun and repeat.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_27.png

Agreed, a couple rainy days during the weekday and a sunny weekend is what I prefer this time of the year.

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