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June 2020 Observations and Discussion


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As we just had the unofficial kick off to Summer this past weekend, met Summer officially begins in less than a week as June is knocking on our doorstep.  I'm pretty certain its going to get hot and humid for a lot of you as we open the door to a new month and a "well timed" heat wave looks to build across the Plains states and lobes of this heat will push east into the MW/GL's.  I'm sure many of you are already in Summer mode and I think based on recent trends in the models this month should end up warmer and remain active.

 

Who's ready for some summer heat???

 

Trends in the CFSv2 are warmer...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202006.gif

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202006.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm on your turf today. Indeed it is miserable.

Last day in Ohio. I leave in the early morning tomorrow. Pretty nice out. 84.0*F.

Mother Nature just zapped the old Sears Tower this morning, yes, I know another corporation bought it and took it over but the name "Willis Tower" doesn't jive with me...

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KC did finally get some rain to help get things watered. We certainly have had some bad luck in April and May. I scored 1.35 inches of rain in the last 24 hours. The grass loves it. We actually had yards turning brown in areas of KC north with mid to upper 80’s on Saturday and Sunday. Rained just in time.

 

Hopefully we can get a few more rounds this week before heat shows back up that Tom is mentioning.

 

Before the potential warm-up, Friday through Sunday look beautiful here in KC, cool mornings in the 50’s and highs in the 70’s.

 

Looks like KC will finish meteorological spring with below average temps and below average moisture. (Unless we get 2+ inches more this week)

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@BAMWx is on board with what I had envisioned as the seasons first "Ring of Fire" pattern.  The Euro has been advertising some intense CAPE values across the central ag belt states later next week.

 

 

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@BAMWx is on board with what I had envisioned as the seasons first "Ring of Fire" pattern. The Euro has been advertising some intense CAPE values across the central ag belt states later next week.

Bring on the storms! Will be interesting to see how this pans out.
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Bring on the storms! Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

June 2nd is my target period for your backyard to be in line to get some big time storms.  The Upper MW near the Dakotas will start a day earlier and shift south the following day.  That'll be the seasons highest potential up that way and in your neck of the woods.

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As we head into June, I don't think we have had a single widespread thunderstorm (MCS) event across my area.  June is typically our big month, so I hope it doesn't disappoint.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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June will enter in SEMI on a very cool note. Temps Monday morning will be in the nippy 40s (low 40s that is w even a couple of upper 30s in spots).

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Looks like GFS has joined the cranking the heat and humidity by Tuesday. We're about to hop straight into summer. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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Well, looks like the N Atlantic blocking pattern will negate any real sustained warmth and humidity if you live closer to the GL's next week.  Last nights Euro showing a wave of storms Wed/Thu across the eastern MW states and GL's as the first wave of the "Ring of Fire" pattern sets up.  I'm starting to think the warmest temps will hold across the central Plains and Upper MW but allow a lobe of it to head east for a few days.  DP's drop off dramatically later next week across the northern and eastern Sub as a refreshing Canadian airmass takes place.

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The JMA weeklies pretty much showcase the center of the June heat across the SW/Rockies/Plains while storm clusters form on the periphery of this ridge.  Temps overall are much AN for those in NE and near normal across the eastern Sub.

 

 

Y202005.D2712_gl2.png

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As we head into June, I don't think we have had a single widespread thunderstorm (MCS) event across my area.  June is typically our big month, so I hope it doesn't disappoint.

While a MCS might not be in play, early indication off the Euro is that the middle of next week would be the best chances of the season for your area to get hit with strong storms.  The Euro is showing some very high levels of CAPE and the way this season has started off, I'm sure we'll see some intense storm clusters Wed/Thu.

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Yikes, the last couple runs off the Euro suggest a major heat wave to inundate the entire Sub Forum later next week all the way from the GOM to the Canadian border!  By next Friday, the Plains could be flirting with the Century mark as the seasons 1st 100F temps are in the cards.  Very high humidity is possible with DP's in the low/mid 70's across the MW/GL's/OHV starting late next week and continuing into the following week.  Looks like this heat wave may have some legs.  Gear up for some real Summer time HEAT!

 

The signal for multiple storm clusters/MCS's mid next week are increasing as we get closer in time.  The seasons 1st "Ring of Fire" pattern should spell some trouble for our members across the central Sub.

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I’m hoping for a strong enough storm from the west so it rains onto the plants that are sheltered beneath the eaves on the west side of the house as need to water them occasionally. Looks a little damp under there now though. Just haven’t had much of any west winds during rain events for a long time!

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Blazing Heat is still looking likely for parts of NE/KS and the central/southern Plains later next week as lower DP's (relative to the others on here) are blown in from the deserts of the SW into the Great Plains. I wouldn't be surprised if @CentralNeb records his first 90F & 100F temp of the season all in one week.

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Blazing Heat is still looking likely for parts of NE/KS and the central/southern Plains later next week as lower DP's (relative to the others on here) are blown in from the deserts of the SW into the Great Plains. I wouldn't be surprised if @CentralNeb records his first 90F & 100F temp of the season all in one week.

This typically is when we get a heat wave it seems like in the last 10 years or so. With all the rain we’ve had recently, I’m fearful that dew points will be higher than typical. We usually have higher dews when irrigation gets going and the crops release more moisture. Won’t have that worry yet. Not a fan of extreme heat. We have had a wonderful spring and have loved having windows open. The A/C bill will start going up.

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Nice warm-up coming next week for SEMI, but nothing extraordinary. Back to near normal or maybe slightly above or below. Lots of sunshine though, but some t'stms are in the forecast for Tuesday. Lets see if they will be severe.

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Fires are burning early this season and there were some that were sparked by lighting last weekend.

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-wildfires/2020/05/31/ocotillo-fire-evacuated-residents-cave-creek/5303809002/

 

I don't recall ever seeing 30 days straight of a spotless Sun...Zzzzzz

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 30 days
2020 total: 121 days (79%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)

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Welcome to the first day of meteorological summer. Looking back at May 2020. At Grand Rapids. The mean temperature was 57.7° that is a departure of -2.0. The high for the month was 90 on the 26th and the low for the month was 26 on the 9th  There was a reported 4.22” of precipitation. There was a trace of snow fall and for the season the total will be 53.5” There was a reported total of 5 thunderstorms (I can not recall that many) There we 3 records reported at Grand Rapids. 1. A new record high of 90 was recorded on May 26th 2. A new record rain fall was recorded of 1.62” was recorded on May 18th and 3 a new snow fall record of a trace was recorded on May 8th

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High of 93 forecasted today. South winds of 30 mph and dews in the mid 50’s so it won’t be bad. We got back to Weight workouts this morning with our high school football team. Beautiful weather. Kids were pumped to see each other and interact. Most hadn’t all been together since March 16th. Nebraska allows groups of 25 to work out together, though our head coach is having no more than 12 in a group for now per coach and we have multiple places to workout in stations.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI453 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-020900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-453 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThere is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, mainly after midnight andnorth of I-69. The storms are not expected to reach severe limits butcould produce pea size hail and heavy downpours while moving west toeast at 40 mph. Localized rainfall total could approach 1 inch bysunrise Tuesday..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through SundayThere is another chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday night intoWednesday morning as a slow moving cold front approaches from thewest. There is a marginal risk for these storms to reach severelimits with damaging wind the primary hazard. Hail near 1 inch andlocally heavy rainfall are also possible.

The Tues-nite storms have a better chance for my area, so we will see how that pans out. Once this CF rolls on through, drier, cooler air arrives.

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Nice cooldown coming by the upcoming weekend as temps drop into the 50s at night w a few 40s in the colder areas and highs mainly remaining in the 70s w low humidity. Great weather for June.

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The euro has consistently shown tonight's storms skipping over my area, but some models do show us getting something.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It looks like we are in store for some nice warm summer weather.  I love it when there are high temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's and lows in the upper 50's to low 60's. If I have my way that is the kind of weather we would have that all year long. But at this point I would settle for that all summer long. At this time it is sunny and 78 here at my house.

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Already 85F at 10am, heading up to 92 today. Dew point is only 60F but that should be increasing soon. Enhanced risk of severe storms just south of here. I'm hoping we get some rain. My lawn is looking real good, finally. 

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We wanted some heat and we got it.  It is currently 91/68 in Cedar Rapids.  My body is not used to it.

 

This it the first time Cedar Rapids has hit 90º since last July.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is 15 degrees colder than the Euro for highs on Saturday in Iowa.  UK is in the Euro camp.  GFS has temps around 70 where the Euro has mid 80s.  

Season Snowfall 23.2"

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Upper 90s are pretty common this afternoon in Northeast NE. 99 in Wayne and 98 in Sioux City

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2016-17: 7.5"

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

 

Average: 25.9"

 

 

 

 

 

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Hot hot hot. 90.9*F.

 

I'm not liking the severe weather setup this far North tomorrow. PWAT looks good enough to maybe fire general storms up here, but I'm not liking the CAPE/DP setup for up here. I think the target zone for a good setup will be along a Lima-Canton-Youngstown line and then South of there.

 

2020060218_NAM_027_41.66,-83.83_severe_m

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Sounding for Lima tomorrow. Way better setup for damaging wind.

 

2020060218_NAMNST_025_40.59,-84.15_sever

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21:

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 0.0"            Coldest Low: 30*F (9/9)

 

 

First flake of the season:

 

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Storms are really getting going across S MN. I can actually see the high clouds blowing off the storms way off to my north. I love the anticipation. Sitting out on the deck with a cold one and chops on the grill. 93 degrees

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A hot, sunny day and a tad humid w temps being well into the 80s. Looks like some wild weather moving in here by daybreak. Currently, this batch of severe storms situated north of Minneapolis and making a bee-line towards MBY. My area could be increased in the "Enhanced Risk" category. So far, in the "Slight Risk."

 

More severe weather on Friday as another CF rolls on through. Sunny, cooler, drier air follows afterwards w 70s for highs and 40s and 50s for low temps.

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

427 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

 

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-030830-

Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-

St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

427 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

 

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 

Thunderstorms are likely tonight in the primary time window of

midnight to 6 AM. There is a slight risk outlook for storms to

maintain severe levels while moving through southeast Michigan. The

primary hazard is damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or greater. Large

hail near 1 inch is also possible along with heavy rainfall that

could lead to localized flooding. Storms are projected to move west

to east at 45 mph.

 

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Those must be some tall storm tops cuz the mid and high clouds are getting here but the actual storms are up by the border yet. And its actually looking a bit dark off that way. Pretty amazing. Love these kind of evenings.

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Picked up 1.3” of rain in about 20 minutes. Minor flooding on my property due to a clogged storm drain. Whoever answers the phone tomorrow morning at the city office is going to wish they hadn’t answered.

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