June 2020 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

18z HRRR

 

[Hawkeye]

18z NAM..... barely any rain at all in Cedar Rapids.... LOL

 

I'm interested in reading what DMX/DVN say.

 

[Bryan1117]

Some models are showing a secondary band to the west. That must be from the developing L coming in behind Cristobal. Should be some good winds with that too.

High Wind Watch for most of Eastern Nebraska and far Western Iowa, for winds gusting from 50 to as high as 65 MPH tomorrow afternoon and evening. Flash Flood Watches also hoisted just to the south and west of Omaha which includes the Lincoln metro area.  

 

Between the expected heavy rain and strong winds, tomorrow evening and night is certainly going to be very interesting around here.  

 

UPDATE: As of the 2:52pm observation, Omaha hit 94 degrees to extend the record streak of 92+ degree days to open the month of June to EIGHT days... ugh! 

[Hawkeye]

Ugh... DVN says absolutely nothing about the low track and best rain... just "rain spreading north across the area".

[St Paul Storm]

just hit 97F here with a heat index of 97F. Thankfully dew points have been dropping most of the day. Otherwise this would really suck. 

[Hawkeye]

Our dewpoint has fallen to 53º.  I thought today was going to have a big jump in dew toward 70º.

[Minny_Weather]

Severe weather season here has been relocated to Pittsburgh apparently.

[St Paul Storm]

Tornado on the ground up near the international border approaching Beltrami Island’s place. Pretty massive discrete cell.

[Beltrami Island]

Tornado on the ground up near the international border approaching Beltrami Island’s place. Pretty massive discrete cell.

That tornado warning was south of Roseau, 60 miles west of me. I am in Baudette. Tornado are pretty rare here. I can only think of 4 confirmed tornados in my county in the 12 years I've lived here, and they were all ef0 strength I believe. Hope that number stays where it is...

[St Paul Storm]

That tornado warning was south of Roseau, 60 miles west of me. I am in Baudette. Tornado are pretty rare here. I can only think of 4 confirmed tornados in my county in the 12 years I've lived here, and they were all ef0 strength I believe. Hope that number stays where it is...

Ah, I thought you were in Roseau for some reason. I should have looked at your location on your profile. Looks like that same cell is heading for you...for real this time...in Baudette. T-storm warning on it now.

[bud2380]

00z HRRR hits the I-380 corridor pretty hard tomorrow. Around 2” with isolated higher totals

[Hawkeye]

The 12k NAM is a bit better for my area, showing a slightly stronger, tighter low, but the rain still only lasts for three hours so the totals are not big.

[Beltrami Island]

Ah, I thought you were in Roseau for some reason. I should have looked at your location on your profile. Looks like that same cell is heading for you...for real this time...in Baudette. T-storm warning on it now.

This cell is very close now but looks like in might just miss to the northwest. Constant thunder for the last hour in the distance getting louder by the minute

[Beltrami Island]

Got clipped by the south edge of the cell. 15 minutes of heavy rain and gusty winds. Glad to be missed by the potential of 2 inch hail.

[Stormy]

Finally got back from work. Time to catch up on the weather and hit the sack!

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS

 

[snowstorm83]

I don't think I can say I've ever had a Flash Flood Watch coupled with a High Wind Watch. Tomorrow evening should be as interesting as a basic rain event can possibly get. 

[Hawkeye]

Euro gave up on the east rain band.  I would be happy with 2".

 

[Stormy]

I kinda like the Euro, GFS, and UK. The ICON remains west. Most of the CAMS have me on the eastern edge of the heaviest. The hrrr looks good for eastern Iowa. Just looking at radar I'm afraid the best rainfall could be west of me if it heads due north. I'm hoping for 2" as we could use a good soaking again and I'll be at home to enjoy it.

[Stormy]

[james1976]

This is like tracking a winter storm!

[St Paul Storm]

Flash Flood Watch expanded to cover the TC metro. 2-4" expected with localized amounts of 4+". Areas east of I-35 may see 5+".  However, the NAMs and GFS are so far east now that the metro gets either nothing or very little precip.  11z HRRR and RAP are also a shut out. WOW. lol

[james1976]

Looks impressive on radar. My area is looking pretty solid for 2-4"

[Niko]

61F n sunny

[Niko]

It will feel like Autumn this weekend w temps in the 60s for highs and lows in the 40s

 

Slow warm up afterwards

[Niko]

As for Cristobal, looks like I might get some severe weather from late tanite from its outer precip shield and then another shot of severe storms from the approaching CF on Weds and that will be it as far as rainfall goes for mby. It stays dry right through next week!!

[westMJim]

Just got back from a nice walk. At this time it is a nice warm summer morning. The current temperature here is 70 with a DP of 55. At this time it looks like most of the rain today will be to the west of here. Most of the rain at this time is I n Missouri and heading N or NW.

[St Paul Storm]

Cool GOES-16 shot of the system as the sun comes up this morning. Clouds from Virginia to Kansas. 

 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-midwest-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Minny_Weather]

That's more like it. The entire state is now in the slight risk zone for tomorrow

 

[Tom]

It's one of the coolest mornings since early/mid May.  Currently 64F along with a nice breeze and clear skies.  Going to enjoy another day in the low 90's because we are heading for another long stretch of low/mid 100's, to possibly the 110F category by end of the week.

[Stormy]

Just started sprinkling here.

[bud2380]

12z HRRR blasts Cedar Rapids

 

 

[Clinton]

Enhanced risk from the SPC for N.Kansas and SE Neb.  Picked up .15 this morning as I got a grazing.

 

[james1976]

12z HRRR blasts Cedar Rapids

 

 

That's way east. Better start turning NE if that's gonna verify.

[Hawkeye]

Suddenly, the HRRR and NAM/3kNAM have shifted back to eastern Iowa, with much less over central.  This has been a struggle for some models.

[bud2380]

Models shifting east, but for that to verify, this storm is going to need to pivot and turn more NNE.  According to radar returns, central Iowa is going to see the worst of this, again unless it pivots and shifts, which is what the HRRR shows will happen. 

[Bryan1117]

This definitely feels like tracking a winter storm. The cut off over the Omaha metro area looks significant on the models with areas just north of the city not seeing much, while southern parts of the metro get nailed with 1 to 2 inches of rain and severe storms this evening and overnight.

 

Interesting to see the enhanced risk issued for SE Nebraska and NE Kansas, could be a localized tornado outbreak in that area with all these ingredients coming together.

 

Spent an hour this morning putting away lawn furniture and tying down stuff outside in preparation for the high winds coming in later today. High Wind Warning in effect for up to 60 mph wind gusts!

[St Paul Storm]

The speed of that cold front out in the eastern Dakotas is going to decide everything. Seems as if its eastward progress has been hung up a bit. If that is the case, the remnants have a wider path to come north instead of veering off to the northeast. No reason to assume any of the short-term models are wrong though. Cristobal is a nowcast apparently. 

[james1976]

I could be wrong but it looks like the center is starting to veer a bit northeast....

[St Paul Storm]

It's picking up some speed based on the radar returns.