Minny_Weather Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Next person to bring up AGW in any of these threads gets a warm and rainy winter. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Next person to bring up AGW in any of these threads gets a warm and rainy winter.Low blow friend! Lol. Ouch!Keep the gloves up. That's getting personal right there. You can call me an idiot all you want to, but quit fuffing with my snow! Thems fightin' words man. Lol I thought we were only here to find the one person we disagreed with and write assumptions at them. Guess I was mistaken.... Is "longer-term, wavelength-driven, possibly apocalyptic, covid-19, possibly Trump-induced climactic pattern shift" a better and more acceptable term or should I tailor it a bit? I'm seriously ready for fall. Very very much. It's gonna be "yuuuge". Your post was still more worthy of a response. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 The recent IRI multi-model ensemble paints a warm/dry Autumn for many of us... By the time Winter comes around, the pattern changes to what looks like a lot of blocking up near Greenland/Arctic...this model tends to have a warm bias as does the JAMSTEC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Gotta give em credit, they change their terminology each year. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Generally speaking, Arctic temps this past Summer have been hovering near normal up until recently when norms begin the seasonal cooling, arctic temps have stayed AN. If you look at the tail end, however, temps are now beginning to slide south as the Autumn pattern takes shape way up north across the Arctic regions. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2020.png I looked at several models and the overall theme as we open up met Autumn is for the Arctic regions to cool off quickly, more importantly, the northern parts of Canada are expected to build up an early season cold pool as the North American Vortex takes shape...AGAIN! It has been a repeating pattern these past few years and something that I'm curiously looking into to see if this is a general climatic shift. Anyhow, as the saying goes..."If you build it, it will come"...like in years past, if you build the glacier the cold will come. Its nice to see the GFS and CFS model jumping on the idea of snow falling early and often across our neighbor to the north. It also appears likely that Eurasia will have a significant increase in snow cover as Summer quickly transitions into Winter across Siberia. All those forest fires up in the Arctic regions this past summer in parts of Siberia will be a thing of the past once the Snow begins to fall and spread throughout the region. I've been watching the CFS model over the past few weeks and its been lock steady showing an expansion of snow cover. Today's run provides us an example of what we may see in the coming weeks as the new pattern evolves. My personal belief is that this year something different is happening over the northern latitudes. October 1st... On our side of the Pole, the theme has been for widespread snowfall across Canada and the NW Territories. October 1st... Looking ahead, I'm keeping a close eye on the models and their handling of blocking in the extended. The trend among the models has been stronger blocking where we need it most for those who want to see a solid winter (like many of us do as winter wx enthusiasts). Could the blocking be a head fake?? Sure, just like what happened in recent years but I got a funny feeling this may be THE year. Finally. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Gotta give em credit, they change their terminology each year.A little credit, "Yes", but not too much. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Generally speaking, Arctic temps this past Summer have been hovering near normal up until recently when norms begin the seasonal cooling, arctic temps have stayed AN. If you look at the tail end, however, temps are now beginning to slide south as the Autumn pattern takes shape way up north across the Arctic regions. Good stuff Tom as usual!! You always get me pumped up for the winter, I love your research and hopefully we can all score a fast start to winter! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Temper or mental, going to be a winter, thats for sure. Don't know if its ever been cold and warm in the same winter here before. Sounds like the plains in winter. Lol. They DO have the cold anchored in the central CONUS though and warm on West coast. I'll give them that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 What's the current state of the La Nina? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 What's the current state of the La Nina? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 What's the current state of the La Nina?I'd say that's a positive trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 I'd say that's a positive trendIndeed...and it's leaning towards an east-based Nina which bodes well.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Indeed...and it's leaning towards an east-based Nina which bodes well.... "cough" ..... check out that Aleutian blob too. Not going to have any problem with dynamics or spin in the atmosphere thats for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 "cough" ..... check out that Aleutian blob too. Not going to have any problem with dynamics or spin in the atmosphere thats for sure.Yup, I’m interested to see how these storms spin up next week and all of September in the Bearing Sea! Those crab fisherman gonna be rocking and rolling the high seas! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted August 26, 2020 Report Share Posted August 26, 2020 Good luck with that. History hasn't ever dealt with 7 billion plus people. Bet you can't find "data" for that in your weather history. The world is warming. The climate scientific community agrees with that. But i guess you'll trust billionaire oil execs over hardworking real people. Ignorance is bliss i guess. Say Hi to your masters at Halliburton. I know those nasty liberals are out to spread lies and scare you!!! taxes!!! ahhhhhhhThe sooner you realize the “scientists” are out for the same thing (money) the “oil execs” are, the sooner you’ll start to piece things together. And when you finally figure out which side lies more to get their way you’ll finally get it. Oh and there is this one small detail that doesn’t give a crap how many people there are. It’s called the sun. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 "Alright, Alright, Alright..."...it's that time of year when I start thinking about "cooler" thoughts and the Autumn season ahead along with a glimpse at what the models are showing for the upcoming cold season. Is anyone else thinking the same??? While we are enduring what most of us can say are the "dog days of summer", it won't be long till we are enjoying Labor Day weekend and the unofficial end to Summer. The question is, will the wx pattern in Sept present the same theme we have seen for several years in a row, whereby summer weather continues into Sept??? Let's see what the models have to say about this. I looked at the JMA/CFSv2/Euro/UKMET seasonal runs and the common feature from all of them is the development of some sort of ridge out west and across eastern Canada, perhaps near Greenland if you believe the CFSv2. This such 500mb pattern would "flip the script" of the string of warm to hot Sept's in recent years. Do I believe them??? Well, my gut says Yes, but then the voice in my head says..."don't fall for it!" It's interesting to see the majority of the models agree with a very similar 500mb pattern. What about temps/precip patterns??? The JMA shows this... The CFSv2 has been rather consistent with the overall pattern and showing near normal temps east of the Rockies, similar to the JMA. The Euro seasonal is not as cool and holds onto the idea that warmer conditions will prevail, however, with the aforementioned 500mb pattern it is showing I'd be cautious of this scenario. What about the UKIE??? Well, I don't get access to the individual runs but the public site allows you to see multi-month runs and they show the same signal for a ridge out west and off the coast of eastern Canada. Temps...seasonal central, warm west and east.... Precip...very wet eastern 2/3rd's of the nation... In short, I'm looking forward to seeing the trends in the models over the coming weeks to come. Will they continue to show consistency as we move along??? I will be pondering on these ideas during the remaining days/weeks of Summer. Later this week I'll dive deeper into the Autumn season as a whole and what could be a winter season that shall finally have some real deal blocking.Oh, here we go, found it....ya, it def did not "see" the NE PAC ridge.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 28, 2020 Report Share Posted August 28, 2020 Horrible accuracy on the most influential piece of the puzzle. :/ The ENS mean for ASO is close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 The CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and predicting its peak dip in temps to occur right when the new LRC is developing during Oct/Nov. Latest model data suggest a Moderate to borderline Strong Nina status late Autumn. Latest subsurface SST anomalies...quite a cold pool (-3C/-4C) forming right underneath the 3.4 and 3.0 regions... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 The CFSv2 trending towards a stronger La Nina and predicting its peak dip in temps to occur right when the new LRC is developing during Oct/Nov. Latest model data suggest a Moderate to borderline Strong Nina status late Autumn. Latest subsurface SST anomalies...quite a cold pool (-3C/-4C) forming right underneath the 3.4 and 3.0 regions... Was just doing some checking on ENSO, myself. Cannot help but notice that deepening of cold in 3.4 and shifting back to 1 coincides very well with the cold pool development over Canada snd the central US. A lot could change, but this could time very well with a future dated cold frontal passage if my thoughts leading out 60-70 days hold true. Jackpot.The whole SST map is in favor of hard nasty cold so I guess if it doesn't work out, I'll learn a new way to fail. Lol. Early call, cold dry start with snow,Mediocre January,Winter onslaught from February out til April. Going to be a rough and stormy fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 Was just doing some checking on ENSO, myself. Cannot help but notice that deepening of cold in 3.4 and shifting back to 1 coincides very well with the cold pool development over Canada snd the central US.A lot could change, but this could time very well with a future dated cold frontal passage if my thoughts leading out 60-70 days hold true. Jackpot.The whole SST map is in favor of hard nasty cold so I guess if it doesn't work out, I'll learn a new way to fail. Lol.Early call, cold dry start with snow,Mediocre January,Winter onslaught from February out til April.Going to be a rough and stormy fall.I hope it’s stormy rain wise. Edit: I meant for this fall. Need to get our soil moisture restored! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 30, 2020 Report Share Posted August 30, 2020 (edited) On 8/30/2020 at 4:59 PM, Sparky said: I hope it’s stormy rain wise. Well, if the "previews" are any indication of what content of the show is going to be this time, that August cold front has been a true harbinger every single time in my lifetime. Sometimes the arctic catalyst or component happens very very early. Modified 09/09/2020 Edited September 10, 2020 by OKwx2k4 Reworded/edited Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2020 Report Share Posted September 2, 2020 The latest CanSIPS seasonal run clearly showing signs of a colder and more expansive La Nina across the equatorial PAC. It is very interesting to say the least for many reasons near and far. I posted trends for October and December. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted September 2, 2020 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2020 I wanna experience this year a classic snowstorm after "Thanksgiving", towards the very end of November. That should bold well for the Winter. Nothing sooner than that. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 I'm gone all summer and come back to yet another epic winter prediction. Meanwhile record heat and record low ice: https://www.noaa.gov/news/july-2020-was-record-hot-for-n-hemisphere-2nd-hottest-for-planet#:~:text=The%20July%202020%20global%20temperature,second%2Dhottest%20July%20on%20record. I guess when that ice age predicted by so many deniers on here eventually comes than we won't have to look at these numbers anymore ammirite? Isn't the planet supposed to be getting colder by now? I forget was that last year, this year....??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters. Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts. Cheers! 7 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters. Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts. Cheers!Who's this guy? Crap, I missed you buddy. Glad you're back! Gimme last year minus the 3 34 degree rainstorms and we in business. I think last year will be forgotten really quickly after this winter. A Niña that builds into and/or past November is a strong clue. A weak sum that doesn't penetrate the depths with IR for about 4 years. Add volcanism and wildfires and voila. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters. Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts. Cheers!Jaster! Glad to see ya back amigo! I was worried about ya getting sick from COVID but sounds like your back in business. Tis the season! Looking forward to reading your input on here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 3, 2020 Report Share Posted September 3, 2020 I'm gone all summer and come back to yet another epic winter prediction. Meanwhile record heat and record low ice: https://www.noaa.gov/news/july-2020-was-record-hot-for-n-hemisphere-2nd-hottest-for-planet#:~:text=The%20July%202020%20global%20temperature,second%2Dhottest%20July%20on%20record. I guess when that ice age predicted by so many deniers on here eventually comes than we won't have to look at these numbers anymore ammirite? Isn't the planet supposed to be getting colder by now? I forget was that last year, this year....???"Ice, Ice, baby"....Antarctic seems to be doing well... https://electroverse.net/antarctic-sea-ice-extent-is-currently-233000-km2-above-the-1981-2010-average/ Early build up of Ice this year for the Arctic??? IMO, prob won't be a cold arctic this cold season compared to the previous seasons but cold enough to support ice growth. http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20200902.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Jaster! Glad to see ya back amigo! I was worried about ya getting sick from COVID but sounds like your back in business. Tis the season! Looking forward to reading your input on here.Thanks buddy! My comfy job was the only casualty of the C-19 scare/hype. Was kinda bitter about it so I had to step away for a while for my own sanity, lol. Nice to see you've stayed the course in our subforum and have remained positive with all this. In one of life"s little irony's I am now on the front lines of the COVID vax production. At least for the time being while we wait for puremichigan's economic recovery and a position in my traditional field to open up. On that Artic Sea Ice. I thought it would've been building the past winter with the PV staying over the pole and strong. But looks like it has been running on the low side the past year or more? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Most interesting September snowfall forecast i have ever seen. Incredible. Pretty sure last year it was October 8-10 or something like that before stuff like this happened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters. Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts. Cheers!He's back! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Snow in Kansas in early September? Wow 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Thanks buddy! My comfy job was the only casualty of the C-19 scare/hype. Was kinda bitter about it so I had to step away for a while for my own sanity, lol. Nice to see you've stayed the course in our subforum and have remained positive with all this. In one of life"s little irony's I am now on the front lines of the COVID vax production. At least for the time being while we wait for puremichigan's economic recovery and a position in my traditional field to open up. On that Artic Sea Ice. I thought it would've been building the past winter with the PV staying over the pole and strong. But looks like it has been running on the low side the past year or more?Good to hear all is well. As for me, I've been in Arizona for most of this year since Mar 1st right when the pandemic hit. Won't complain bc it has been a nice experience spending the Spring and most of the Summer out here in the desert. I think it really emphasized how much I like the wx back home and need to be in an environment where you have seasons. I certainly couldn't live out here all year long. It would bore the heck outta me! Regarding the Sea Ice, IMO the reason why the volume was low last winter was due to the warm Bearing Sea and Barents Sea, however, sea ice thickness was apparently much deeper near the North American coasts due to the strong PV. May 1st 2020...it may be hard to read this chart but you can see the incredible thickness (4-5 meters thick) of the ice near the shores of the Northwestern Passages/Nanavut/Greenland. http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20200501.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 4, 2020 Report Share Posted September 4, 2020 Thanks buddy! My comfy job was the only casualty of the C-19 scare/hype. Was kinda bitter about it so I had to step away for a while for my own sanity, lol. Nice to see you've stayed the course in our subforum and have remained positive with all this. In one of life"s little irony's I am now on the front lines of the COVID vax production. At least for the time being while we wait for puremichigan's economic recovery and a position in my traditional field to open up. On that Artic Sea Ice. I thought it would've been building the past winter with the PV staying over the pole and strong. But looks like it has been running on the low side the past year or more?CTRL+V 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 Taking a look at the JMA seasonal model (just one run) which has been suggesting a moderate La Nina , is showing a start to Winter we have been all been used to for the last several winter seasons...a WARM December! Does that change as we get deeper into Winter??? @BenNoll commented on this...https://twitter.com/i/status/1301882709254443008 Winter 2020-21: a moderate ENSO signal (La Niña) should help with the general circulation models' predictability.I think there is reason to be intrigued across the north, particularly the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes Here's the JMA, which runs every 5 days out to 6 months! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 CPC boys seem to be thinking a similar tune as JB but they are a bit colder at this stage. The storm coming next week certainly has that "look" of what may be a preview. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 Good to hear all is well. As for me, I've been in Arizona for most of this year since Mar 1st right when the pandemic hit. Won't complain bc it has been a nice experience spending the Spring and most of the Summer out here in the desert. I think it really emphasized how much I like the wx back home and need to be in an environment where you have seasons. I certainly couldn't live out here all year long. It would bore the heck outta me! Regarding the Sea Ice, IMO the reason why the volume was low last winter was due to the warm Bearing Sea and Barents Sea, however, sea ice thickness was apparently much deeper near the North American coasts due to the strong PV. May 1st 2020...it may be hard to read this chart but you can see the incredible thickness (4-5 meters thick) of the ice near the shores of the Northwestern Passages/Nanavut/Greenland. http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20200501.pngWow, yeah. Talk about thick! Nice map just they got the colors bassackwards. Red (warm) should be THIN ice, lol and purple the thicker stuff. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 Who's this guy? Crap, I missed you buddy. Glad you're back! Gimme last year minus the 3 34 degree rainstorms and we in business. I think last year will be forgotten really quickly after this winter. A Niña that builds into and/or past November is a strong clue. A weak sum that doesn't penetrate the depths with IR for about 4 years. Add volcanism and wildfires and voila.Hey OKwx, Nice to be missed. Hopefully you're channeling some real snowfall this winter. Sad to see you hang in there and then have the door constantly slammed in your face. 49F this morning and 48F yesterday morning. Certainly losing that endless summer feel up my way and I'm thankful for that fact. Let's hope this current 500mb/teleconnection combo is a theme going forward the next 6 months. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 5, 2020 Report Share Posted September 5, 2020 Hope all are well. Those who know me know I post little during the warm season, especially with the virtually non-existent tornado season in this era. Gimme an 07-08 Nina repeat and I'd be a very happy camper. Autumn of 2007 was stormy with major tornado action in September, followed by nice mild conditions in October and some "cold rainer" systems taking the OHV track late month into November. Winter kicked-off with a bang on Dec 15th with a major S.Lakes snowstorm dumping 10-15" amounts around here. It was an extremely active if not cold season. We were just cold enough for the OHV track to deliver mostly snow versus rain. Nina almost always means AN precip, but it's a coin toss as to whether more of it falls as snow or rain. 2017-18 was good too (137% of avg) but some areas just to my N and E had an historic season so I felt a little cheated on that winter sorry to say. Only one legit Storm Warning that winter during the February week of snow-blitz. That storm 2/9/18 was the last warning headline here from the NWS that actually verified (tho we've had a few storms since that met the criteria but were given the WWA treatment instead). Comment on JB/WxBell maps is that others have indeed shown the cold centered over far western Canada yielding that warm and wet track through the GL's. Considering we've done pretty well with recent Nina's it wouldn't surprise me to see something like that play out. Long ways to go tho. Anything could happen as we've found out the past few years wrt longer range/seasonal forecast attempts. I think JB has busted pretty bad 2 of the past 3 winters. Not concerning myself with winter too much yet. I'd just like to enjoy some nice fall weather without the premature arrival of snow in Oct/Nov that has become a recent trend. Save that for when it really counts. Cheers!Hey welcome back!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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