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August 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Last time 2 back to back hurricanes hit the GOM was back in 1933 and 1959. So, ONLY twice this has happen! Wow.! Laura seems to be the strongest of the 2 and could be a major hurricane (possibly a cat3 or greater) and also the path is still up in the air for either storm.

 

Marco was always likely to crap the bed before reaching the coast.  Laura will be a problem.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Marco was always likely to crap the bed before reaching the coast.  Laura will be a problem.

Marco under any circumstances, will definitely be a problem, even at TS category. Even though it is not as strong as once was ( a cat1 hurricane), it will still cause problems:

hd23-8.jpg?w=632

 

Yes, Laura on the other hand will be more severe, in terms of strength. Either way you look at it, both Marco and Laura are a threat, no matter how ya look at it.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'm a very excited father as my son is a 9th grader and has his first JV Football game this evening at 6:30 PM. Game time temp is supposed to be 94 degrees. Thankfully they have plenty of players so they should get enough breaks. Kids here have to bring their own water jugs to practices and games so they are not sharing from the water machine. I know athletes are getting tired of the hot weather just like everyone else. I told him this morning if he can make it through Thursday, there are cooler days ahead.

Man, that's awesome. Yes, one more week.

We can all make it. Been a great summer, but I'm glad it's got an end coming.. I'm ready for fall and crisp biting air.

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The pattern change can't come soon enough. I'm hoping for a widespread rain event or two to put a dent in the East NE/West IA drought. Lincoln has been much more fortunate than Omaha for most of the summer, but August has been dry enough that lawns are starting to show signs of stress. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Man, that's awesome. Yes, one more week.

We can all make it. Been a great summer, but I'm glad it's got an end coming.. I'm ready for fall and crisp biting air.

I have him in my 9th grade Social Studies class before lunch.  He is a little nervous as schools our size can play 9th, 10th, and some 11th graders on a JV team so you might be facing some bigger guys.  I know he will do fine, but that feeling of your little guy is now in high school got to me a little this morning, not going to lie.  

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Its unfortunate that the remnants from "Laura" will pass to my south and miss SEMI. Perhaps, we will get some cloudcover and or spotty showers, but the real deal will be well south of the area. Hopefully, it change. We will see.

 

 

Clintons area will get a nice soaking from "Laura." ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, no storms today were confined, but, rather sunny, hot and muggy w temps well into the 80s. Lows tanite not dropping much as the humidity levels will not allow temps to fall too much.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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PHX ties another record high of 115F!!! Tack on another one...Hottest Summer on record continues...

Dude, you are gonna come back looking like a "Tomato." Your neighbors will probably, most likely wont recognize you. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This weather is to hot for me as well, but I’m not complaining since most of this month before this week had nearly perfect temps here for August. The really bad thing is it’s awfully dry at my location and crops are suffering. The field where we harvested oats a few weeks ago isn’t greening up very fast or like it should.

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Dude, you are gonna come back looking like a "Tomato." You neighbors will probably, most likely wont recognize you. :lol:

Let me tell you, I get my Vitamin D almost every day. Having a pool is very convenient. No more than 45 min to an hour of sun is plenty. I’ll be honest though, this Heat is crazy! When I get back, 60’s/70’s will feel amazing.

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Looks like my place got another round of severe wx this morning....

 

 

 

At 419 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Arlington
Heights, moving southeast at 35 mph. This storm has shown a gradual
weakening trend recently.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Elgin, Arlington Heights, Evanston, Schaumburg, Palatine, Skokie, Des
Plaines, Mount Prospect,
Hoffman Estates, Glenview, Elmhurst,
Lombard, Buffalo Grove, Bartlett, Ohare Airport, Streamwood, Carol
Stream, Hanover Park, Wheeling and Park Ridge.
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Meantime, PHX is heading up to 113F today which is actually the record high for the day.  Given the trend in recent days, the models have been busting low with temps so my guess is we break the record today.  We'll just have to see.  Gosh, it's like a broken record (no pun intended) the way this weather pattern has been around here.  One final note for the local wx here, the record low high for the morning is 92F and PHX is currently at 97F, likely setting a new one this morning.

 

Just saw that ORD hit a high of 97F yesterday which is the hottest temp of the season!  If the Euro is right, that might not be the hottest temp yet...Wed/Thu may top out a bit higher than that.  The relatively dry air certainly helps heating things up.

 

 

1.jpg

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In other news, Hurricane Laura is turning out to become a Major hit for the TX/LA region, prob a more westerly track than east IMO.  The EPS is handling the track much better and I'm worried about Houston.  I spoke to one of my friends that lives down there on the NW side of Houston and he's getting kinda worried.  The 00z Euro has a Cat 4 hitting Houston!  Yikes!

 

OMG, the 06z Euro coming in now is even strong and a bullseye for the Houston metro...not good!  It's track is a worst case scenario for storm surge.  Check out these maps below...peak wind gusts just before landfall reach 145 knots which is equivalent to 166 mph!  At landfall, 135 knot winds are possible which is 155 mph (Cat 5) strength.  My goodness.

 

Edit:  Wow, I just realized this track takes it just SE of our member @OkWx!

1.png

2.png

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Attm, it is sultry outside. I don't wanna even be venturing outdoors right now. Temp and dew are gross. Currently: 74/74! Multiple chances of t'stms each day for mby, but tbh, chances increase starting tomorrow through Thursday.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In other news, Hurricane Laura is turning out to become a Major hit for the TX/LA region, prob a more westerly track than east IMO. The EPS is handling the track much better and I'm worried about Houston. I spoke to one of my friends that lives down there on the NW side of Houston and he's getting kinda worried. The 00z Euro has a Cat 4 hitting Houston! Yikes!

 

OMG, the 06z Euro coming in now is even strong and a bullseye for the Houston metro...not good! It's track is a worst case scenario for storm surge. Check out these maps below...peak wind gusts just before landfall reach 145 knots which is equivalent to 166 mph! At landfall, 135 knot winds are possible which is 155 mph (Cat 5) strength. My goodness.

 

Edit: Wow, I just realized this track takes it just SE of our member @OkWx!

That's crazy stuff! My girlfriend's name is Laura so I'm gonna ask her what her deal is. Lol
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Things are are getting somewhat dry here as there has been officially 0.03" of rain in the last 2 weeks and just 0.43" is the last 21 days. The lawns that have not been watered are now turning brown. With some storms to the west and northwest it it now cloudy and 75 here with a DP of 70. It looks like the official low at GRR was 73. Here at my house it was 71. IF that 73 holds until midnight it will set a new record at Grand Rapids for the warmest minimum for August 25. The record is 72 set in 1948.

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That's crazy stuff! My girlfriend's name is Laura so I'm gonna ask her what her deal is. Lol

Well crap, don't make her mad and send her here! :lol:

......[starts evacuating]..."Ain't skeered, just bein safe."

 

 

In all seriousness, looks really bad. Have a horrible feeling about it. Going to swing right up here by me and say hello. Going to be interesting indeed. Closing out summer with a bang is a real rarity.

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Attm 83F w a muggy air out there. Some clouds mixing in at least, giving my skies a mostly cloudy look from time to time, which, kinda helps I guess.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Laura-zoom.jpg?w=632

 

Now, my question here is, does this become a "Cat4." Maybe. It all depends on how quickly it intensifies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice eyewall formation on Laura.

 

Exact tracks are hard to nail down this far out. Good chance that we won't have a better idea until tomorrow. Right now, a westward shift in the track seems likely.

 

GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=25

 

Growing up in Houston, I went thru 2 hurricanes. Rita and Ike.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The (hopeful) end is near.

 

 

Tonight

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southeast wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light east southeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 60. North wind 6 to 9 mph.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 79. Northeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Thursday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. East northeast wind 6 to 8 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Northwest wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. North northwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 76. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. South southeast wind 6 to 11 mph.
Sunday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. South wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 7 to 14 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. North northwest wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Monday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. West wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Tuesday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. West wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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The (hopeful) end is near.

Welcome to "Met" Autumn sir! Signs are right around the corner for ya.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some leaves have started to fall here. I understand it's likely from the hot and dry weather but still nice to see! Some are actually colored. Walking onto the deck with leaves on it is definitely nice and a sign of things to come as Autumn is right around the corner!

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Out on the deck right now with a cold one and a pork loin and potatoes on the Weber. I know we say this every year late summer but the sun is going down way sooner now. Idk how many minutes of daylight we have lost but it's pretty impressive. More signs of Autumn!

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Laura just went through an eyewall replacement. Now there's really nothing keeping it from strengthening. Down to 969mb, down from 973 just 90 minutes ago.

 

Good news is that the wind field doesn't look to be that big. Hurricane force winds won't extend far from the eye wall.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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