August 2020 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Both the official low at GRR and here at my house overnight was 51 that is the coolest low since June 15th when the low was 47. So far this August is near average with a mean of 71.0 that is a departure of -0.6. At the current time it is sunny with a temperature of 73 here with a DP of just 52. With the clear skies and low DP that will lead to cool overnight lows.

[Iowawx]

I'm back, have had power for days now, but I am still in total disbelief about what took place here on Monday August 10, 2020

 

My house has some minor damage to it, a few pieces of siding blown off, a few trees down, and lots of debris all over city streets. There are other people here in Cedar Rapids who have lost everything, and I can't believe the level of destruction that took place here. It will surely take months to get all of the debris cleared away and longer to rebuild all of the structures that were damaged. I will upload pictures of my surroundings later. 

 

Just today, the NWS confirmed that some locations in Cedar Rapids had winds of 140mph!!!!!! 

 

 

https://www.kcrg.com/2020/08/19/maximum-derecho-wind-estimate-now-at-140-mph-atkins-measures-126-mph/

[Tom]

I'm back, have had power for days now, but I am still in total disbelief about what took place here on Monday August 10, 2020

 

My house has some minor damage to it, a few pieces of siding blown off, a few trees down, and lots of debris all over city streets. There are other people here in Cedar Rapids who have lost everything, and I can't believe the level of destruction that took place here. It will surely take months to get all of the debris cleared away and longer to rebuild all of the structures that were damaged. I will upload pictures of my surroundings later. 

 

Just today, the NWS confirmed that some locations in Cedar Rapids had winds of 140mph!!!!!! 

 

 

https://www.kcrg.com/2020/08/19/maximum-derecho-wind-estimate-now-at-140-mph-atkins-measures-126-mph/

Glad to hear your alright.  We were all worried about our fellow Iowan's after the devastation that occurred.

[Stormy]

Sparky-

 

I forgot to ask you if your garden survived the Derecho, or better yet, if you were affected and if so, how badly. I know CR, iowa was hit the hardest, or just a tad north from there.

The garden survived quite well with plants leaning a little sideways. The drought is much worse than the storm at my location! There was some damage throughout my community, some places worse than others, but we’ve faired quite well.

[Stormy]

I'm back, have had power for days now, but I am still in total disbelief about what took place here on Monday August 10, 2020

 

My house has some minor damage to it, a few pieces of siding blown off, a few trees down, and lots of debris all over city streets. There are other people here in Cedar Rapids who have lost everything, and I can't believe the level of destruction that took place here. It will surely take months to get all of the debris cleared away and longer to rebuild all of the structures that were damaged. I will upload pictures of my surroundings later.

 

Just today, the NWS confirmed that some locations in Cedar Rapids had winds of 140mph!!!!!!

 

 

https://www.kcrg.com/2020/08/19/maximum-derecho-wind-estimate-now-at-140-mph-atkins-measures-126-mph/

Here’s a screenshot of a graphic I saw on Twitter about those wind reports.

Glad to hear you’re okay and your place wasn’t destroyed!

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah, okay, whatever GFS.

[Niko]

A lot of nearby 40s tanite under crystal clear skies and chilly temps. Lows in mby will be dropping between 50-55F. Dry weather continues until the end of next week . No rainfall in sight, unless we get lucky during the weekend from a pop-up t'stm. That CF looks like will fade out on Saturday and never make it thru my area, so it stays very warm and turning increasingly humid.

[Niko]

Tropics are also getting busy. "Laura" WILL be our next named storm and more are following down the road. Lets not forget, peak season is Sept 10th. As far as Laura goes, so far its path will take it towards the Caribbean and southern parts of Miami. Lets see where it goes after that.........

[Niko]

Yeah, okay, whatever GFS.

No f-way!

 

Then again, who knows.

[Tom]

The "never ending" Excessive Heat Warning was extended for 1 more day today for the valley as temps today are expected to once again top out in the low 110's.  Guess what guys, yes, we did it AGAIN yesterday as PHX set yet another record high of 115F!  That was not in the forecast as the models had temps topping out in the low 110's. The local mets here are scratching their heads as nobody saw that one coming...LOL..Meantime, what is happening right now that is a blessing are some pop up storms to my south and west that are slow movers and dumping some real heavy rain.  I'm looking south out my patio deck ATM and I could see a few lighting strikes and hear some low rumbles of thunder.  We don't typically see storms this late or early in the morning.  The forecast calls for more storms to continue today through the weekend, esp tomorrow when more moisture comes up from the Baja due to the circulation of the remnants of Hurricane Genevieve.

[Tom]

This is nuts....but with the cloud cover this morning and calm winds, PHX has barely dipped below the triple digits and sitting at a very warm and muggy 99F!

 

Current conditions at Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (KPHX)Lat: 33.427799°NLon: 112.003465°WElev: 1115ft.

Partly Cloudy

99°F

37°C

Humidity 28% Wind Speed W 13 MPH Barometer 29.72 in (1006.44 mb) Dewpoint 61°F (16°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 100°F (38°C) Last update 20 Aug 04:51 AM MST

[CentralNebWeather]

 

This is nuts....but with the cloud cover this morning and calm winds, PHX has barely dipped below the triple digits and sitting at a very warm and muggy 99F!

 

Current conditions at Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (KPHX) Lat: 33.427799°NLon: 112.003465°WElev: 1115ft.

Partly Cloudy

99°F

37°C

Humidity 28% Wind Speed W 13 MPH Barometer 29.72 in (1006.44 mb) Dewpoint 61°F (16°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 100°F (38°C) Last update 20 Aug 04:51 AM MST

 

 

 

This is nuts....but with the cloud cover this morning and calm winds, PHX has barely dipped below the triple digits and sitting at a very warm and muggy 99F!

 

Current conditions at Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (KPHX) Lat: 33.427799°NLon: 112.003465°WElev: 1115ft.

Partly Cloudy

99°F

37°C

Humidity 28% Wind Speed W 13 MPH Barometer 29.72 in (1006.44 mb) Dewpoint 61°F (16°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 100°F (38°C) Last update 20 Aug 04:51 AM MST

 

Whoa.  We dropped to 63 here with a dew of 58 at 7:30 AM.  Amazing we have a lower dew than Phoenix this AM.  Very interesting Tom.

[Tom]

@CentralNeb, I know you have been dealing with an extroardinarily hot and humid Summer, but I got some good news for ya.  After this last bit of heat and humidity coming your way, last night's 00z EPS has trended really chilly for the Upper MW by the close of the month and opening days of Sept.  This will lead to a more active pattern and comfortable air.

[bud2380]

There seems to be a slight chance of rain for some lucky few on Saturday, but otherwise bone dry for the next week with temps increasing daily in this persistent pattern.  The weather has been gorgeous here all week, very much like warm September days with relatively low humidity which allows for cooler nights.  It's been really nice, but we need the rain.  Apparently I went overboard last month watering my yard, as I got a nice $366 water bill, so I guess it's on mother nature now to keep my grass going.  Hopefully we get some rain at some point.  

[westMJim]

Here is the number of official days of 90 or better across the area so far this summer Grand Rapids 14. Muskegon 15. Kalamazoo 16. Holland 10 and Lansing 13.  While all locations have seen one or more days of 90 or better than average Muskegon so far is the most above average.  The 30 year average at Muskegon is only 3 days of 90 or better but this year they and now at 15. While Kalamazoo has seen 16 days their average is 13. And at Grand Rapids the 30 year average is 10 and there have been 14 days so far. Note the 100 year average at Grand Rapids is 12.

[Minny_Weather]

@CentralNeb, I know you have been dealing with an extroardinarily hot and humid Summer, but I got some good news for ya. After this last bit of heat and humidity coming your way, last night's 00z EPS has trended really chilly for the Upper MW by the close of the month and opening days of Sept. This will lead to a more active pattern and comfortable air.

GEFS looks the same way. I may get to look forward to lows in the low-mid 40s to open up September.

[CentralNebWeather]

@CentralNeb, I know you have been dealing with an extroardinarily hot and humid Summer, but I got some good news for ya.  After this last bit of heat and humidity coming your way, last night's 00z EPS has trended really chilly for the Upper MW by the close of the month and opening days of Sept.  This will lead to a more active pattern and comfortable air.

This would be an amazing change to our pattern.  Thanks for posting the map Tom.  Dryland corn has actually fared pretty well around here, though there isn't much of it in our county.  Irrigated corn looks amazing.  Dryland corn is pretty advanced it appears.  

[CentralNebWeather]

I just looked at our averages for Aug. 21st.  Average high is 83 and the average low has now dropped to 59.  By the end of August the average drops to a high of 79 and a low of 55.  

[Niko]

Tbh, I don't think I saw a single cloud yet in the sky. Deep blue skies is all ya see. Temps are very comfortable as well (70s w low dew).

[Niko]

Been hearing and seeing how crazy the "Cali Wildfires" are out west. Good luck to everyone out west. Spoke to a very close friend of mine who lives in Thousands Oaks and said that its a horrible situation there.

[Minny_Weather]

85°F, DP 71°F currently. Nasty. The one time I'd prefer to be back in Ohio. Five more days of this.

[Niko]

Heatwave is coming for SEMI as temps will be at or slightly above 90F for the next few days starting this weekend and continuing for most of next week.. UGH!! I believe this has been a very unending Summer heat.

 

Btw: so far, we have been 14x at 90F, or better in Detroit this Summer. I think we might have a shot at the all time record b4 is all set n done w.

[Niko]

As far as the tropics go, Laura and Marco will be entering the GOM. Now, way too early to know the path, but, buckle up y'all, its going to get bumpy in the Atlantic soon.

 

Key Note: Laura and Marco expected to become a Hurricane.

[Tom]

Finally! PHX is under a Severe Storm Warning! Lots of lightning, wind and pockets of heavy rain. Let’s see how much the official tally ends up.

[Tom]

We finally did it and broke the streak in PHX of measurable rainfall.  The official tally at Phoenix Sky Harbor was .90" of well deserved rainfall.  It came down in buckets, tree's blown over, power lines down and some small hail was reported.  It was quite the scene from my balcony looking first north as the cell came down from the mountains and then west.  Scottsdale was also hit pretty good with strong winds and heavy rains.  This storm was rather electric and filled the sky with lots of gorgeous lighting.  BTW, last nights rainfall brings the monthly total AN in the precip department (+0.23") but still 0.40" BN for the year.  We may achieve normal by the end of the weekend with more chances of storms.  It's funny how one Monsoon storm can change the stats for the PHX area.  Meantime, the local mets on TV are saying "A big cool down is heading are way today"...but yet, the temps are still going to be topping out at 106F!  LOL

[Tom]

What is going on with the GEFS???   Big time battle between the GEFS and EPS as we close out August and open up September.  It's odd to see the EPS cooler bc for the most part the European has been warmer in the long range compared to the American model this whole warm season.  Well, needless to say, I'm going to put my money on the EPS bc the other climate models suggest the 500mb pattern amplifies as we flip the calendar into met Autumn.

 

00z GEFS...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

As the month comes to a close, the models may be giving us a clue what mother nature has in store for us as the seasons begin to change.  It appears an active pattern is poised to set up across much of the central/northern Sub as very hot weather will battle against early season autumnal CF's coming down from Canada late month.  It begins later this weekend up north and then shifts south as the cooler air tries to press.

 

00z EPS is quite wet over the next couple weeks...just in time for Sept but before the Labor Day holiday.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

I think SPC has the right idea with today's convective outlook. I'd maybe trim a lot of Minnesota out of the MRGL risk. The highest risk does indeed look to be West of me, judging by models

 

 

Sounding for the Devils Lake area @ 22Z shows high-precip supercell potential. 

[Niko]

Sunny skies w temps in the upper 60s. Dew is noticeable!

 

 

Right now, I am dreaming of the "Greek Islands." AHHHHhhhhhhhhhhh...cant wait to go there again. My workers that cut the grass there for me and look out for any damages around my properties couple times  a month, told me yesterday that the island/s are not packed this year at all due to the F-Pandemic. Well, I am not surprised at all.

[Niko]

Attm, its beautiful outside. Temps are creeping up into the 70s. Heatwave on the way! Rain chances look very slim. Thankfully, the "Drought Monitor" reads normal, instead of "Abnormally Dry."

[Minny_Weather]

Last model run was a screwball all around. Mild capping showing up and I don't think I'll even come close to the ConvT needed for convection.

 

[Niko]

- FAR_Weather

 

Are you forecasted to see triple digit heat w this heatwave coming?

[Minny_Weather]

- FAR_Weather

 

Are you forecasted to see triple digit heat w this heatwave coming?

Nope. In fact, today is the only day I'll even be flirting with 90. Climo is starting to go against extreme heat here. It will definitely be a muggy next few days with highs in the mid-80s though.

[Niko]

Based on current guidance, it looks like we may potentially have (2) hurricanes hitting the gulf coast sometime early next week. So, how weird is that. Wow. This should be interesting to see.

[Minny_Weather]

Very nasty, however a layer of haze is keeping the temp from rising, so I'm stuck at 85/73*F currently. Not gonna get even close to warm enough to puncture the cap here. If I'm gonna have mid-70s DPs, I'd like to at least have something to show for it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Next 6 days have highs from 95-100 and lows of 70. Disgusting. The summer that won’t quit continues. We sure deserve a cooler September after these last 3 months.

[Niko]

Earthquake shook SEMI today at 6:55pm. The quake occurred near Detroit Beach and was a 3.2 magnitude. Parts of NW Ohio felt it as well. No biggie.

[Niko]

Attm, it is gorgeous outside. At the Detroit Riverfront enjoying the view. Temps are in the 70s w noticeable dew.

[Hawkeye]

I just got power back Thursday.  It was a long ten days... physically tiring from the cleanup, then very boring.

[Tom]

I just got power back Thursday.  It was a long ten days... physically tiring from the cleanup, then very boring.

Welcome back Hawkeye!  Did you experience a lot of damage?  It's good to hear from you.  Hope you and your family are doing better.