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August 2020 Pacific Northwest WX Obs and Discussion


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Had a warm time camping, but thanks to the elevation it was a lot more pleasant than what the lowlands experienced. I will say, Cascade River and Cascade Pass area of the North Cascades National Park

Same with Victoria, I've seen some flashes and heard distant thunder but nothing has come close yet. Different story further north on the island, my brother captured these from Nanoose looking SE over

Fall begins in 46 days. We're only 3 months away from where we start foaming at the mouth at models looking up north for arctic air surging down into Alaska, Yukon, British Columbia, and Alberta! I ho

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Some decent improvements on the 12z EPS in the 6-10 day range. Digs the trough a little deeper than the operational.

 

Could be some seasonably cool days and chilly nights to close the month at face value.

That trough digs far enough south it will likely kill the desert monsoon before it's even started.

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That trough digs far enough south it will likely kill the desert monsoon before it's even started.

Maybe not a bad thing? Seems like monsoonal lighting strikes started a lot of the CA fires last week.

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Currently running +2.8F for the month. Is that the hottest in the PNW?

anomimage-12.png

Nope, in Oregon, Redmond, Roseburg and Medford all got you beat Tiger.

 

Redmond: +3.7

Roseburg: +3.6

Medford: +3.0

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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In Eugene today for my wife s surgery. Pleasant day. And seems like the procedure went well.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z EPS still looks quite warm for Labor Day weekend...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-1day-

Looking good, loving the consistency it's showing.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Looks like it will miss New Orleans with landfall closer to the TX/LA border. Will be close to a major hurricane at landfall. The NHC is thinking strong category 2 hurricane at the moment with winds of 105 mph. Then it looks like she might be headed for you this weekend but would just be a depression by then.

 

154444_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Landfall point will be close to hurricane Rita back in 2005 and the strength will be close. Rita was category 3
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Just Labor Day weekend... pretty consistent so far.

 

The EPS has only showed heat in the mid and long range a couple times this summer... and it generally verified.    Its been pretty cool in the 10-15 day range overall since May and the reality has often ended up being a little warmer.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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80/52 here today with clear skies aside from some scenic high clouds at times. Just great weather for the waning days of summer.

 

Wind picked up this evening as the weak front blew through, and the high cirrus clouds made for a great sunset. A comfortable 68 currently.

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A hint of fall in the air during the mornings. The cool crisp air is refreshing

I’ve been loving the cool (average) mornings. Seems like it’s been common for us to torch on the lows in the late summer recently, so this is a treat.

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84/48 beautiful today!!

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
  • Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

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Just Labor Day weekend... pretty consistent so far.

 

The EPS has only showed heat in the mid and long range a couple times this summer... and it generally verified. Its been pretty cool in the 10-15 day range overall since May and the reality has often ended up being a little warmer.

It seems like you are talking to yourself when you post like this, just reply to the individual's post like anyone else would.

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Perfect out. The whole week looks just about perfect. No smoke. This summer gets an A. :)

Yeah, lots of sunshine with no smoke is my ideal summer.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Weekend trough a non-event on the GFS.

 

GEM disagrees.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As long as he’s willing to pay $350/hr.

Rates increase?

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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62 now...DP in the upper 40s. Should be in the low 50s again tomorrow morning. Nice to get some cooler mornings after a stretch with several 60+ degree lows.

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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00z was probably the warmest run in a few days. For the weekend.

I guess it is warmer in OR. But the shortwave trough is stronger/farther west, which is the key detail.

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I guess it is warmer in OR. But the shortwave trough is stronger/farther west, which is the key detail.

EPS has it out over the North Atlantic.

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I guess it is warmer in OR. But the shortwave trough is stronger/farther west, which is the key detail.

You are really stretching... the 00Z ECMWF was warmer for WA too.

 

And the 00Z EPS was warmer than the 12Z run as well... all the way through Labor Day weekend.

 

Still could be wrong though. We are at that time of year when tropical systems can cause the models to suddenly shift course.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It was in the 40s here this morning. If we are lucky, just a couple weeks from our first 30s.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Based on what the models are showing it looks like we’re done with rainfall this month. Meteorological summer this year had 2.63” of rainfall. 1.89” came in June and 0.37” in July and another 0.37” in August. Not too far off from last summer’s 2.73” total but was distributed much differently this summer compared to last summer. Had 0.17” in June 2019, 0.99” in July 2019 and 1.57” in August 2019.

In terms of temperature each month this summer was a bit cooler or the same as last summer. June 2019 was 60.6 degrees vs 60.2 in June 2020. July 2019 was 64.7 vs 64.2 in July 2020. Still not done with this month...but August 2019 ran a 66.3 vs 66.6 so far this month...but that number will probably end up a bit closer to the 2019 average over the next few days.

In the summer of 2019...we had 17 80+ days, 2 85+ days and 1 90+ day. So far this summer we’re at 14 80+ days, 3 85+ days and 1 90+ day. Not too far off from last summers total and I’m expecting a couple more 80+ days either at the end of this month or in September.

Overall this has been a very very enjoyable summer...more rainfall came in June this year and July and August we’re both drier than last year. Was a more noteable dry period this summer in the final 2/3rds of July and the first 2/3rds of August vs the main dry period last summer was in June which is unusual. Overall a more typical summer.

September rainfall 0.00” 80+ -15 85+ -3 90+ -1 hottest day-97

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Based on what the models are showing it looks like we’re done with rainfall this month. Meteorological summer this year had 2.63” of rainfall. 1.89” came in June and 0.37” in July and another 0.37” in August. Not too far off from last summer’s 2.73” total but was distributed much differently this summer compared to last summer. Had 0.17” in June 2019, 0.99” in July 2019 and 1.57” in August 2019.

In terms of temperature each month this summer was a bit cooler or the same as last summer. June 2019 was 60.6 degrees vs 60.2 in June 2020. July 2019 was 64.7 vs 64.2 in July 2020. Still not done with this month...but August 2019 ran a 66.3 vs 66.6 so far this month...but that number will probably end up a bit closer to the 2019 average over the next few days.

In the summer of 2019...we had 17 80+ days, 2 85+ days and 1 90+ day. So far this summer we’re at 14 80+ days, 3 85+ days and 1 90+ day. Not too far off from last summers total and I’m expecting a couple more 80+ days either at the end of this month or in September.

Overall this has been a very very enjoyable summer...more rainfall came in June this year and July and August we’re both drier than last year. Was a more noteable dry period this summer in the final 2/3rds of July and the first 2/3rds of August vs the main dry period last summer was in June which is unusual. Overall a more typical summer.

 

 

The final temp and rain stats for the entire summer might be similar... but July and August had many more dry, sunny days than last year.   Its not even close.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Obviously we had a wetter June this year. Rest of summer was dry as always.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Obviously we had a wetter June this year. Rest of summer was dry as always.

 

 

Last year we had 27 days with rain here in July and August... not "always" dry up here.

 

This year we have had 13 days with rain in that same period and that is almost perfectly normal.   27 days with rain in July and August is not normal in my area.   In terms of tangible weather... this July and August has been very different than last year.     I am not talking about your area of course.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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