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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Today's 12z Euro suggesting some "September Snow" coming for the Front Range of the Rockies next week!  Quite an impressive shot of early season Arctic Air...wow!  If this happens, it would be something really special.  I just drove through that area and I had visions of what it would look like when it snows here.  That's a lot of snow for early September.

 

 

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Well, I am fain to find out that my area has now been removed from the "Abnormally Dry" cat and is near average in rainfall, but above for the month of August. Thanks to the wet weather last week, which helped boost up those numbers. Lets see how September goes in terms of rainfall.

If the rainfall was widespread enough it should show up on the drought map, but if only a small spot it might not.

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Radar is lit w storms. Lets see if my area will get in on some action!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Temp attm is 75F under cloudy skies and its humid.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Des Moines NWS regarding next week. Love it!!:

 

Right on the heels of the Saturday evening/night shortwave, a much

stronger cyclone will swing across southern Canada and likely the

Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions later in the weekend. This

has the potential to bring the first real fall-like weather to the

region, depending on its southward penetration, with additional

rain chances followed by significantly cooler temperatures in the

first half of next week. Stay tuned folks.

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Attm, getting hvy rain and lightning. No wind or thunder. Some areas tanite will receive more than an inch of water. Just depends on where you are. Looks like my area scores once again. My drought monitor here in SEMI will be very happy w much further encouraging results.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It’s actually raining here. Unfortunately I can’t get a measurement as my rain gauge broke and I haven’t picked up a new one and the local high school is no longer reporting. I’d guess we only got a tenth of an inch but it was enough to make everything wet.

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It appears Sparky is getting some heavy rain from a decent line.  Any heavier showers split around CR today, only leaving sprinkles or very light rain for us.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Unfortunately I can’t get a measurement as my rain gauge broke and I haven’t picked up a new one and the local high school is no longer reporting.

 

KCRG has let their StormNet stations and web portal fall into disrepair.  I can no longer even access any of the still-working stations through their website.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What looked like a cooler Labor Day weekend is turning into a HOT one for the central Plains states and into parts of the MW.  If the Euro is right, some places may make a run towards 100F out in NE on both Sunday and Monday.  Relief comes late on Monday when a powerful CF races south and ushers down some bone chilling cold for the time of year.  I think this would be devastating for crops if trends continue.  

 

The 00z Euro is suggesting daytime highs, yup, daytime highs in the low/mid 40's nearly 24 hours later after basking in the 90's for a few days.  Wow, talk about a pattern flip!  Not to mention, but those out in the CO Front Range will be flirting with record heat and then possible Record Cold and SNOW!!!  As a weather enthusiast, I'd love to be there to witness this transition.  Call me crazy, but that would be a sight to see!

 

 

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GFS has the rain/snow line getting pretty d**n close to the Manitoba/ND border on Tuesday...

 

I know I'm not going to see flakes, but wouldn't that be interesting? I wish Fargo had a dependable climo website like Lincoln so I could see when the earliest historical snowfall was.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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GFS has the rain/snow line getting pretty d**n close to the Manitoba/ND border on Tuesday...

 

I know I'm not going to see flakes, but wouldn't that be interesting? I wish Fargo had a dependable climo website like Lincoln so I could see when the earliest historical snowfall was.

This storm system is looking very interesting and quite the way to open up met Autumn!  The cold coming post storm could be record setting.  Early frosts...or maybe even Freeze's???  Just thinking about that being possible is strange after a record setting warm Summer.

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Wow -  GFS has mid 30s for Eastern Neb next Wednesday morning. Even colder further west with near freezing in Central NE. That would be pretty impressive for so early in the season. No idea what the euro shows. I think wxbell has cracked down on many people sharing one account by tracking ip addresses, so I haven't been able to use it for the past few months. I'll probably get a subscription of my own sometime before winter starts. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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This storm system is looking very interesting and quite the way to open up met Autumn!  The cold coming post storm could be record setting.  Early frosts...or maybe even Freeze's???  Just thinking about that being possible is strange after a record setting warm Summer.

I can remember a very hot and dry summer in 1995.  My wife and I were just married.  We had a killing freeze the 1st week of September and one of the worst blizzards in our history, Jan. of 1996 along with extreme cold.  95/96 was a good winter for us.  If I remember, it was very good for the Dakotas.

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I just checked the weather, the temp has shot up to 88 degrees but feels like 85.  Dew is 42 and humidity is 21%.  Sure seems like our incredibly humid summer is going to be a distant memory.  Funny what happens when irrigation season ends a cold front comes through on Monday.  We are in for quite a roller coaster ride in the next 6 days.  The fun of living on the Central Great Plains.

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Attm, its nice outside (I think) w temps in the 70s and dew is fairly comfortable.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A very fascinating wx pattern is setting up for the middle of next week as we continue to have quite the battle among the various models.  Is this going to be our 1st Autumn storm system to track?  Yesterday, there was a massive spread in temps between the GFS/Euro.  Last night, they both came in a bit closer to one another as the Euro cooled and GFS warmed.  I'm pretty sure we'll see more adjustments in the coming days.  Needless to say, this storm reminds me vividly of what we saw back in October when last years LRC was developing.  Remember how many times we saw these strong frontal boundaries knife down the leeward side of the Rockies???  It's pretty neat to see this sorta pattern happening in early September.

 

Nevertheless, the 00z Euro keeps the snow in the forecast for the Rockies and now the recent 06z GFS run does also.  A highly amplified pattern is poised to setup up shop across the central Plains/MW causing a strong signal for our seasons 1st frontogenesis pattern.

 

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The JMA weeklies continue to illustrate a pattern conducive for an amplified pattern for the duration of this month.  In fact, if it's Week 3-4 forecast verifies, you can betcha we'll see some vigorous troughs if we see strong re-curving Typhoons later in the month.

 

Week 2 temp/precip...

 

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Y202009.D0212_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4...this is a rather strong signal this far out to see an uptic in W PAC activity.  Why is this important???  It could very well have implications for all of us down the road as we open up October.  500mb pattern keeps those ridges off both the west coast and east coast....

 

Y202009.D0212_gl0.png

 

 

Temps look rather seasonal....

 

Y202009.D0212_gl2.png

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12z GFS coming in a lot colder and wintry for the CO Rockies Front Range...starting to see some similarities with the Euro...

 

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Would this constitutue as a Blue Norther???  Temps in the TX Panhandle near 100F and within 24-36 hours crashing down into the 40's!

 

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sfct.us_c.png

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