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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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UK agrees with the GFS

 

More than the amounts, it's great to see the potential for a widespread soaker across the region.

 

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Interesting write up from GRR:

 

ur next upstream Pacific system will force the system that is
moving into today out of the area and bring shortwave ridging
later Saturday into Sunday. That is behind that warm front related
shortwave that comes through early to midday Saturday. This brings
in warmer air for Saturday and even more so Sunday.

-- Could get hot early to middle of next week --

So, here is were the bigger forecast glitch is. We now have two,
count them, two western Pacific typhoons. The first is Maysak,
that not to far behind that is Haishen. Both of these storms
recurved and head north up the coast of eastern China, Korea and
Russia. That has a rossby wave impact on the down stream systems.
It causes amplification of those systems. It is for that reason
the ECMWF slowed down our cooling. The GFS is catching on some
with the latest model run.

The more amplified pattern over the Pacific results in a more
amplified pattern over North America. That means the system that
was suppose to dig into the Great Lakes now digs into the western
Mountains instead. That in turn allows the Azores high to expand
westward, which in turn keeps us warm until that upper trough
slowly makes it far enough east to reach the Great Lakes. Remember
both typhoons have to finish recurving for it to get cold here.
That may delay the cold weather until the following weekend.

Meanwhile, with the upper high building back toward the Great
Lakes we may have highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday into
Thursday. By the way it is not unusual to us get hot weather the
first week or so of September. In fact the average high
temperature for the first week of September in GRR from 2011 to
2019 is 80 degrees. Which is about 3 degrees above normal. Prior
to that, from 2007 to 2010, it was cool the fist week of
September with our mean high only being 75 degrees.

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Splendid day outside w a dry CF coming today. Maybe a scattered shower here and there, but nothing extreme. Windy conditions attm w gusts as high as 25mph. Some cumulus clouds mixing along w that deep, blue skies. Dew is not a factor today. What is a factor is the warmth. Currently a toasty 87F. Somebody could hit 90F.

 

Btw: average high has dipped into the 70s now. Also, next potential (which is likely) named storm will be "Paulette." I think probability chances stand high, as peak season has not even arrived. I believed it peaks during Sept 10th timeframe. In conclusion, there is also a possibility that we might run outta names and head straight into the "Greek" Alphabet.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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12z Euro coming in colder for the Plains/MW for Wed & Thu morning lows....30's on the table for a lot of the central members....daytime highs may struggle to reach the 50 degree mark for parts of NE on Tue/Wed, however, the official high will be higher bc the midnight temp will be higher. 

 

Edit: The snow amounts in CO are staying consistent!

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The Euro is still different, keeping the main energy cut off well west of our region.  The rain amounts end up a little different, but the same general look is there.

 

qpf_acc.conus.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro coming in colder for the Plains/MW for Wed & Thu morning lows....30's on the table for a lot of the central members....daytime highs may struggle to reach the 50 degree mark for parts of NE on Tue/Wed, however, the official high will be higher bc the midnight temp will be higher. 

 

Edit: The snow amounts in CO are staying consistent!

 

I want to drive to Colorado to witness this early fall storm!  Wow, that'd be cool.  

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I want to drive to Colorado to witness this early fall storm!  Wow, that'd be cool.  

You and me Both!  Instead of driving, I will be FLYING over this area on Wednesday morning heading back to Chicago.  Might be a bit of a bumpy ride over the mountains.

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Euro is a little disappointing.  The weekend system shifted further north and isn't as robust.  I'd really like to cash in this weekend and then get the cooler temps with a couple days of rain behind it to really soak in.  My new sod has taken a beating this summer and is really struggling to grow at all.  I fertilized a few weeks ago, but it hasn't rained and it's too expensive to continuously water the yard.  So I need mother nature to do her part here. 

 

 

The Euro is still different, keeping the main energy cut off well west of our region.  The rain amounts end up a little different, but the same general look is there.

 

qpf_acc.conus.png

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It's interesting to see the Euro Weeklies flip much colder for the end of the month and siding with the BSR.  Check out the complete opposite 500mb pattern to close out month from last Monday's run.  This makes more sense until I see changes in the N PAC.

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It's interesting to see the Euro Weeklies flip much colder for the end of the month and siding with the BSR. Check out the complete opposite 500mb pattern to close out month from last Monday's run. This makes more sense until I see changes in the N PAC.

Wow, that was a curveball.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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12z GFS coming in a lot colder and wintry for the CO Rockies Front Range...starting to see some similarities with the Euro...

 

snku_acc.us_c.png

 

 

Would this constitutue as a Blue Norther??? Temps in the TX Panhandle near 100F and within 24-36 hours crashing down into the 40's!

 

sfct.us_c.png

 

sfct.us_c.png

I'd say yes. If not, see ya in November for the real one. Lol.

 

If snow grazes the OK panhandle, it would have to obliterate a record.

 

This is like 1911 though. The setup is out of the park for long length colder than average weather with legs.

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Now that the CF has rolled on through, some much cooler air filtering in. Temps dropping tanite in the low 50s and a few 40s as well.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Off the African coastline, there is a wave that could form eventually into a TS and when that happens, "Paulette" will be visiting somebody.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I had a very busy evening so I'm finally enjoying some time out on the deck and grilling some chicken tenders and potatoes on the Weber. Very late supper! But that's ok. This weather makes it worth it. Down to 59 with clear and calm conditions. I love watching the seasonal transitions.

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Evening models are shifting the Saturday night storms up into MN/WI, and far ne IA.

 

Even though we don't get much this weekend, the GFS still has widespread 2-4" across the entire region through next week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro came in a touch colder throughout the Great Plains and into the MW/Upper MW for the middle of next week....Frosty mornings still looking quite possible!  Check out the DP's being predicted by the Euro which will provide that CRISP Canadian Feel.

 

Some of the models have the snowfall creeping into KS!

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I'm starting to see some LR signals that the coldest air of the Autumn season is yet to come for our eastern members by the middle of the month.  Using the BSR as guidance, among other LR tools, the pattern will re-amplify and send a shot of some Autumnal chill down through the GL's/MW during the week of the 14th.

 

Remember this 1st Bearing Sea storm????  Interestingly, this is just the beginning of a parade of storms in this part of the world which should translate into a volatile and active eastern half of the nation mid and late month.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_npac_1.png

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In other news, the Beat goes on here in the desert SW as we begin another Heat Wave that should last through the Labor Day weekend.  PHX should set another record high today of 113F (old record 112F), tie a record of 112F tomorrow and maybe set another record for Monday.  We may also set a record for the HOTTEST Labor Day weekend ever.  If that's not enough, we also keep tacking on the number of Excessive Heat Warnings issued for the valley and 110F+ days which will be around 55 days or so by the end of this HOT stretch of weather.  

 

Any-who, I'm excited to be coming back home next week and enjoy some crisp cool autumn air...its going to take a few days to get used to those temps.

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Looks like Monday will only be in the 70's here instead of the 80's that had been forecasted.  Monday night through Tuesday night give us the best chance of precipitation in a long time.  With this drought, you just don't know how things will play out.  I guess until the pattern changes, I would lean towards less rainfall than is being predicted.  Highs for Tuesday keep being lowered, now mid 40's with a north wind and rain.  It will be a raw day.  Our temps may drop over 60 degrees from highs of 102 on Sunday to 40 by evening on Tuesday.  

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A couple days ago it looked like the Saturday night storms would fire in nw Iowa.  Now the NAM has them firing in central MN.  The 3k NAM, however, dives a line down through eastern Iowa by Sunday morning, in decay mode, which would at least drop something here.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. Temp at 72F and a dew of 45F. Excellent weather and not a cloud to be found.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like the cooldown coming next week will be significant w highs in the (50s north of my area) and 60s elsewhere and lows in the 40s and a few upper 30s in the far NW burbs. This will be a true shocker to the system, after experiencing a hot, dry Summer.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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