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September 2020 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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NWS Hastings morning disco:

 

One other minor concern will be the potential for frost next
Wednesday night/Thursday AM. At this time...light winds and clear
skies Thursday morning should result in widespread morning
temperatures in the 30s...and will need to monitor this period for
frost potential over the coming days.
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2 hours ago, Tom said:

972mb just east of Lake Superior...let's see if trends continue today...its a complex set up whereby a southern piece forms along the front and phases with the northern stream energy diving S/SE out of NW Canad and into the GL's region...fascinating to say the least...

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Septembo-bomb lol. Likely overdone but might be flirting with record low baro for this early. Would love to see models getting advertised systems more right than wrong this winter.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The 12z Euro is not quite as bad as the 00z Euro in terms of widespread cold.  Looks like it's delayed an extra day and doesn't last quite as long or get quite as cold in these parts.  Still a good cool shot coming though with -10 below normal widespread by 10/2, but better than the widespread -15 below the 00z run was showing. 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

 Would love to see models getting advertised systems more right than wrong this winter.

As far as the Euro goes, I know it had some problems with the speed and strength of Sally once it made landfall and was playing catchup to the American models so curious to see if it's still the case come winter. Not sure how it has faired with the other storms this summer.

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88 degrees at Junior High football practice today with no wind. To say I’m sick of this unending summer is an understatement. Even with sprinkler systems, the practice fields are hard as a rock. One of the other coaches is a farmer and said this summer has been much worse than 2012. He wasn’t alive in 1988, but his father told him the history of that year. 

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15 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

The edge of the trough. My favorite. 🤠

You might wanna move back to OH this Winter. There is a good chance Ol Man Winter will be in this part of the nation!  😅

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Gorgeous weather continues here in SEMI for a couple more days b4 the big chill next week, especially late in the week. Along w that comes plenty of rain and wind. Man, it will feel quite raw. October will certainly show its presence. In terms of rainfall, my area could be looking 1-2" or possibly more. Finally, a lot of leaves will start changing colors next week. So far, patchy color continues to show.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Beta decided to creep up all the way into mby yesterday. No rainfall, but, its cloud shield definitely came by. Skies were mostly cloudy for a couple of hours as most of the hvy rainfall was way south of SEMI.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF...what a great day to take off of work if you could do so and enjoy what appears to be Summer's last grasp, at least for this region.  I think I may even venture off to the beach on Saturday as it will feel like mid-summer with temps pushing the upper 80's (86F) amidst strong S/SW breezes, minimal wave action with an offshore wind.

 

Models are wavering back and forth for early next week.  The 00z Euro took a step back while the GFS took a step forward in developing a SLP along the frontal boundary that tracks up into the GL's region.  

00z GEFS...classic Pan Handle/OHV Hook being advertised...is nature "flashing" a clue going forward???  As the northern hemispheric pattern literally snaps into Winter up north and a clash between Summer/Autumn down in the mid latitudes, boy, this is quite the way to cap off a month that had it's extreme's across the board.

 

Both 00z GEFS/EPS pretty similar in the precip placement...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

 

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Friday!  #TGIF...what a great day to take off of work if you could do so and enjoy what appears to be Summer's last grasp, at least for this region.  I think I may even venture off to the beach on Saturday as it will feel like mid-summer with temps pushing the upper 80's (86F) amidst strong S/SW breezes, minimal wave action with an offshore wind.

 

Models are wavering back and forth for early next week.  The 00z Euro took a step back while the GFS took a step forward in developing a SLP along the frontal boundary that tracks up into the GL's region.  

00z GEFS...classic Pan Handle/OHV Hook being advertised...is nature "flashing" a clue going forward???  As the northern hemispheric pattern literally snaps into Winter up north and a clash between Summer/Autumn down in the mid latitudes, boy, this is quite the way to cap off a month that had it's extreme's across the board.

 

Both 00z GEFS/EPS pretty similar in the precip placement...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

 

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Lack of moisture is sure concerning on this map for my region of the Central Plains.  

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Lack of moisture is sure concerning on this map for my region of the Central Plains.  

This is indeed concerning out in your region of the Plains states because I don't see any real good chances of precip in the extended. 

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Happy Friday!  #TGIF...what a great day to take off of work if you could do so and enjoy what appears to be Summer's last grasp, at least for this region.  I think I may even venture off to the beach on Saturday as it will feel like mid-summer with temps pushing the upper 80's (86F) amidst strong S/SW breezes, minimal wave action with an offshore wind.

 

Models are wavering back and forth for early next week.  The 00z Euro took a step back while the GFS took a step forward in developing a SLP along the frontal boundary that tracks up into the GL's region.  

00z GEFS...classic Pan Handle/OHV Hook being advertised...is nature "flashing" a clue going forward???  As the northern hemispheric pattern literally snaps into Winter up north and a clash between Summer/Autumn down in the mid latitudes, boy, this is quite the way to cap off a month that had it's extreme's across the board.

 

Both 00z GEFS/EPS pretty similar in the precip placement...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_24.png

 

 

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Very sweet looking maps Tom. And with the SLP forming in just 2-3 days not a fantasy range deal. What are temps like during the rain over our way? Many good things so far this early autumn. Absolutely played a round of golf yesterday and can't get enough of this late summer perfection.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR on next week's cold wave..

Quote

One thing to mention for the mid-week time frame is the potential
for waterspouts. The colder air and low pressure aloft coming in
over the relatively warmer lakes is a good setup for waterspouts.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Glorious, beautiful, magnificent day outside, even though I have not been outside yet, from looking at my windows, it looks awesome. Temps have got to be in the 70s. No time to check, but I would not be surprised if they are at 80 or betta.😆

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Lack of moisture is sure concerning on this map for my region of the Central Plains.  

Hey, maybe all the moisture will hit Nebraska and Iowa when the cold arrives and we’ll have an epic winter!  We can hope right?

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2 hours ago, BMT said:

Hey, maybe all the moisture will hit Nebraska and Iowa when the cold arrives and we’ll have an epic winter!  We can hope right?

That already happened....2 years ago

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Woke up this morning to the sound of a SW breeze and mild temps in the mid 60's (64F).  Feels like a warm and slightly humid July morning (DP 61F).  Looking forward to spending time outdoors today and enjoying this summer-level warmth.  My lawn sure would like a decent soaking rain but it looks like the models are drying up a bit for early next week.  Anything will help at this point.

 

00z Euro still advertising a decent rainmaker with the frontal boundary...boy, it sure did trend away from the front-runner/GL's storm....all good, bc its very early in the season and its just nice to see storms energizing in this region which indicates to me this could be one of the hot spots nature is setting up as we head deeper into Fall/Winter.

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Absolutely splendid outside. Temp is at 64F under sunny skies. Although, a bit hazy and humidity levels today will be noticeable. Different story next week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The weather last nite was so wonderful, that we decided to go to an outdoor restaurant for dinner and was very impressed. They had all sorts of food, which makes it a lot easier for those who are nip picky. I have always been Pantophagous, so, I am usually an easy goer when it comes to food. This place has outdoor lighting, which gave it a nice look to it. The people working there were superb as well. I made sure that they received a generous tip, that's for sure. The name of the pl is called "Chapman House."

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Today looks to be the last real warm day for my area. Mainly 60s for the next 2 weeks with some 50s. I really hope this is the last of the summerlike temps. At least their isn't much for humidity. I noticed farmers have been getting their crop out. Time to get ready for the cold season!

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We also fell well short of the expected high temp today due to plenty of clouds.  I'm glad it remained pleasant.  Southwest Iowa hit the mid 90s.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Cold front just coming through. Temp is dropping and the wind is howling out of the north. Lots of blowing leaves also. Goodbye summer, hoping you are gone for good this time. 

Gusty south breezes here but also a noticeable amount of leafs blowing around for Sept.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just like many of you yesterday, we got stuck in a low stratus deck all day long, thus, temps only topped out in the upper 70's instead of mid 80's.  I was hoping to get some vitamin D but nature had different plans.  Gusty SW winds continue to blow before the CF makes its way here this afternoon.  Is this the last mild morning of 2020???  It's a very warm 68F right now and with the windows open it does feel kinda nice.

Took a look at the models and we may have a SLP to track after all???  Both NAM's show a SLP tracking up along the trailing CF and strengthening up into the Mitt on Monday.  Perfect storm track for Jaster and crew.  Other CAM's also agree to some extent.  Last minute trend???

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_35.png

 

 

00z Euro increased precip totals around the GL's region and down by Clinton...

 

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5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

.01" of rain so far in my backyard. Radar looks way more impressive than reality.

Yeah, basically just enough to wet the ground here, picked up .01 here as well... it was nice to wake up to the sound of some thunder this morning, however we need more than just light rain showers and sprinkles to bust the drought.  

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Yesterdays official high of 81 tied 1901 with the 9th warmest high of any September 26th here at Grand Rapids. however it was well short of the record high of 92 set in 2017.  The official overnight low of 65 so far would tie the record warmest minimum for any September 27th if it can stay that warm until midnight. (very low chance) That just shows you how fast it cools off here in Michigan in September.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Just like many of you yesterday, we got stuck in a low stratus deck all day long, thus, temps only topped out in the upper 70's instead of mid 80's.  I was hoping to get some vitamin D but nature had different plans.  Gusty SW winds continue to blow before the CF makes its way here this afternoon.  Is this the last mild morning of 2020???  It's a very warm 68F right now and with the windows open it does feel kinda nice.

Took a look at the models and we may have a SLP to track after all???  Both NAM's show a SLP tracking up along the trailing CF and strengthening up into the Mitt on Monday.  Perfect storm track for Jaster and crew.  Other CAM's also agree to some extent.  Last minute trend???

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_35.png

 

 

00z Euro increased precip totals around the GL's region and down by Clinton...

 

1.png

Nice turn-about amigo. As I said about that GEFS animation, with a high confidence in SLP development and placement, this looked promising. I feel for our Plains Peeps and their drought situation. We've also gone back to at least a surface dryness as my south facing garden and lawn is going brown again. A solid 0.5 to 1" of rain followed by more cloudy-n-cool wx should alleviate the dryness concerns around here. Let's see if this can trend even wetter?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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